Latest from Coffee House

Latest from Coffee House

All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories

UK pauses Chagos deal after Trump objection

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has tonight been forced to stall the Bill which would hand the Chagos Islands over to Mauritius. The legislation enabling the deal was expected to be debated in the House of Lords on Monday. But this evening, it was revealed that the votes have been delayed amid parliamentary ping-pong and a backlash from the Americans. Both the Conservatives and Reform UK are keen to take credit for the pause in the bill, under which Britain would give up the archipelago and lease back the Diego Garcia base. The Conservative case for credit is on the legislative front. Peers like Lord Hannan argue that the flip-flop occurred only after the Tories had put out a rare three-line Whip for Monday, with ministers concluding that their Bill would fall.

chagos

How Trump could block the Chagos deal

Can Donald Trump veto the UK’s cession of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius? And if he can, does he want to? On Tuesday, he termed it an act of "great stupidity," which certainly seems to imply opposition. Scott Bessent, the Treasury Secretary, followed up to say that the UK was "letting down" the US by handing over the Islands to Mauritius. But Sir Keir Starmer was unmoved during Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday, claiming that in denouncing the Chagos deal Trump was simply trying to put pressure on the UK to abandon Denmark and Greenland, which Starmer of course rightly refused to do.

trump

The odious attempt to compare Trump’s health to Biden’s

Trump Derangement Syndrome has become horribly over-diagnosed. Now, anyone who expresses doubts about his wondrous abilities – or just fails to repeat the White House’s preferred talking points – risks being branded a "TDS" sufferer. It’s boring. Still, there remains a large faction of elite journalists, social-media influencers and political actors who loathe Donald Trump with a pathological intensity and who feel their mission in life must be to undermine him by whatever means necessary. They have spent the last decade condemning Trump and his supporters as conspiracy loons even as they leap from one dark theory to the next – Trump is a Russian asset! A closet Nazi! An Al Capone-style mobster! A serial rapist and possibly even a pedophile!

gaza

The US plan for Gaza is absurd

Donald Trump’s strangely artificial Board of Peace event in Davos on Thursday looked like a Hollywood rendering of an international summit. Everything was too slick, faintly uncanny. Like an AI-generated image, it was photo-real yet failed the most basic human glance test. Too perfect. No wabi-sabi. The first tell was visual: the set, complete with a crisp new institutional logo: a globe on a shield, flanked by olive branches. It carried the unmistakable whiff of Grok or ChatGPT, but the strangeness went deeper than design. The speeches themselves were weirdly messianic and utopian.

new york times

A short history of the New York Times being wrong about everything

The "nothing ever happens" people seem to be, sadly, correct about Iran thus far, although one hopes that the brutal Islamic Republic might still be overthrown. It’s hard to know what to think, and at times like this we all turn to the experts to give their analysis of what might happen and what might follow. Foreign policy expertise is hard work, because it requires both a specific knowledge of the national culture and the relative strength of personalities. Because there are so many factors involved, analysts frequently get things completely wrong, the Iraq and Afghanistan debacles being the notorious examples.

Ms. Rachel’s ‘accidental’ anti-Semitism

Who among us hasn’t accidentally liked an Instagram comment calling for America to be “free from the Jews?” YouTube children’s entertainer Ms. Rachel fell into that trap this week, issuing a pathetic and quite possibly insincere apology online after one of her subscribers caught her in the act of upvoting Jew-hate. “I’m sure that’s an accident so wanted to let you know,” the fan said. Was it really, though? “Deleted,” Ms. Rachel, whose real name is Rachel Accurso, responded. “How horrible. Oh wait. Let me check. Yah, I did delete one like that.” She added, “I hate anti-Semitism.” That didn’t defuse the situation. Ms. Rachel, clearly the victim here, posted a video to Instagram hours later. She wasn’t wearing makeup or her trademark overalls.

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Lisa Cook

Is the Supreme Court poised to protect the Fed from Trump?

Rarely has the ideologically divided US Supreme Court seemed so much on the same wavelength. And that is not good news for President Trump.In arguments Wednesday in a case that centers on President Trump’s authority to fire members of the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, both Republican and Democratic appointees suggested giving the president unfettered control would harm financial markets and damage public confidence.“Your position – no judicial review, very low bar (for dismissal) and that the president alone makes the determination – would weaken if not shatter the independence of the Federal Reserve,” said Justice Brett Kavanaugh in an exchange with US Solicitor General John Sauer, representing the Trump administration.

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Davos and the showy ruthlessness of the new ‘far center’ 

There has always been a section of the establishment which thinks that the solution to populism lies in a great straightening-out of the populace. Populism is happening because people are bored, they say, so conscript them, get them off their phones, give them things to do – especially the young. It is only through collective struggle and sacrifice, it’s thought, that liberal democracy may find coherence and purpose again after 30 years of supposed ennui.  This part of the liberal center is happy enough to wave the flag. Indeed its main tactic is to accuse its opponents of national treason. It affects to agree with the populists that a new age of expediency has now opened, and that the establishment must now meet it with a ruthlessness of its own.

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Surrogacy isn’t something to celebrate

Pop star Meghan Trainor posted a photograph this week skin-to-skin with her newborn daughter, "Mikey Moon," who was still slick with fluids from the birth canal. The image was tender and maternal. What changed the dynamic was the caption. Trainor revealed she had not actually delivered her daughter, but had her gestated by another woman via a surrogacy arrangement. The online reaction was deeply uneasy and critical. This would have been unthinkable a decade ago. Surrogacy used to be framed as glamorous, progressive, even beautiful. Magazine spreads showed radiant celebrities cradling babies "made possible" by another woman’s womb. The story was celebratory: science plus money equals miracles. Everyone wins. But in 2026, nobody seems convinced anymore.

What’s the matter with Minnesota?

22 min listen

Freddy Gray speaks to investigative journalist and policy fellow at American Experiment Bill Glahn about the situation in Minneapolis. They discuss how Minnesota – a state once occupied by Scandinavian peace loving people – became the heart of political eruptions; the multibillion dollar fraud of state social benefits which led to the immigration crackdown and the effect of the cripplingly cold weather in calming the chaos.

board of peace

Why shouldn’t the Board of Peace replace the UN?

The latest media palpitation about Donald Trump concerns his just-announced “Board of Peace.” Unveiled as an initiative to manage the introduction of tranquillity and physical reconstruction of that pile of rubble formerly known as Gaza, the Board of Peace seems to be filling all the empty space in the parking lot reserved for international relations. Think Big! The BoP now seems to take as its mandate international conflict more generally. Reporting on the fledgling enterprise, a story on ABC News mournfully told the world that “Critics and government leaders are decrying the board, saying it undermines the United Nations.”   Is that a promise?

Prince Harry couldn’t hide his anger during his court showdown

When Prince Harry left the witness box at the UK High Court this afternoon, it was observed that he was "visibly emotional." The Duke of Sussex was there to give evidence in his group legal action against the Daily Mail publishers Associated Newspapers a day earlier than expected. There is inevitably a certain amount of personal toil involved in any high-profile legal case – where the stakes for whichever side wins are considerable, both financially and reputationally. But the Duke of Sussex’s emotive, even angry appearance in court today made it quite clear to any onlooker that his motives were deeply personal. It appears that victory for him would represent a spectacular vindication of a quest that he has been on for years.

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Pope

Could military service become morally untenable for Catholics?

During his lengthy interview with the New York Times, President Trump was asked if there was anything that could check his power on the world stage. “Yeah, there is one thing,” he said. “My own morality. My own mind.” What are we to make of Trump’s morality? That’s between him and God, I suppose, and perhaps only the all-knowing could parse his mind. But it’s fair to wonder where morality factors into Trump’s foreign policy, and whether America’s moral justification of force has only ever been a convenient pretext for acting in our own interest.  At the World Economic Forum in Davos today, Trump said he “won’t use force” to take Greenland.

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Trump’s credible threat at Davos

The headline from Trump’s Davos speech is clear: I won’t use military force to take Greenland. That’s what the President told the world’s leading politicians and business executives at the World Economic Forum. That declaration was very good news for all of them and for US investors, who immediately started buying stocks, erasing about half the losses suffered Tuesday, when the threat of force seemed possible. They all knew that carrying out that military threat would shatter the institutional foundation of Western security: NATO and US-European relations. Instead of military threats, Trump emphasized America’s disproportionate contributions to European defense since World War Two. It was finally time for them to bear a fair share of the burden.

Trump sees the EU for the bully it is

There has always been a touch of the actor about Emmanuel Macron, and the President of France was at his theatrical best at Davos on Tuesday. Sporting a pair of aviator sunglasses to conceal a broken blood vessel in his eye, Macron played the part of a man unjustly treated. Not just him, but all of Europe. "We do prefer respect to bullies," concluded Macron in his address to the World Economic Forum. "We do prefer science to plotism, and we do prefer rule of law to brutality. You are welcome in Europe and you are more than welcome to France." Macron didn’t mention Donald Trump by name but the audience understood that he was the big bad bully the French President had in mind.

Elon Musk would be a great new owner for Ryanair

A Tesla would whisk you to the airport. The planes would be self-flying. And robots would serve the over-priced sandwiches, while, inevitably, every seat is hooked up to a live X feed. A full-scale takeover of Ryanair, Europe's largest airline, by Elon Musk may still be some way off, but with the billionaire polling his followers on X on whether he should make a bid for the budget airline, it is no longer impossible. Ryanair’s long-suffering passengers should welcome the prospect of a Musk takeover – because, while the airline revolutionized low-cost travel, Ryanair is stuck in a rut. The spat between Elon Musk, and Ryanair’s pugnacious CEO Michael O’Leary is certainly entertaining for anyone who enjoys watching a contest between out-sized corporate egos.

Nicki Minaj’s ungodly clash with Don Lemon

“Independent” (fired) journalist Don Lemon is making himself the news after he did some activist reporting as part of a mob that stormed a Minnesota church, whose pastor is a local ICE official, on Sunday. But if you’re going to cross Christians in America these days, then you’re going to cross Nicki Minaj. “HOW DARE YOU?” Minaj emphatically posterized Lemon on X. “I WANT THAT THUG IN JAIL!!!!! HE WOULD NEVER DO THAT TO ANY OTHER RELIGION. LOCK HIM UP!!!!!” She accompanied this with a photo of a Chucky doll. In response, Lemon called her "homophobic," and said, “I’m not surprised Nicki Minaj does not understand journalism and is weighing in on matters that are above her capacity.” He went on TMZ, the program where he naturally belongs, and called the rapper "ignorant.

Minaj

Can Trump sink the UK’s Chagos Islands handover?

"Better late than never." That’s how Reform party leader Nigel Farage has described Donald Trump’s sudden and dramatic repudiation of the United Kingdom’s Chagos handover. "This should be enough to sink just about the worst deal in history." Early this morning, Trump used his Truth Social account to lay into "our 'brilliant' NATO ally, the United Kingdom, over Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s decision to "give away the Island of Diego Garcia, the site of a vital military base, and to do so FOR NO REASON WHATSOEVER.

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Is Greenland a new Suez crisis?

37 min listen

Freddy is joined by Jacob Heilbrunn, editor of the National Interest, and David Whitehouse, science journalist and former BBC science editor, to discuss Donald Trump’s threat to annex Greenland and the potential rupture in transatlantic relations. They also discuss Greenland’s strategic importance for missile defense, the "Golden Dome," Arctic shipping routes and space-based surveillance; and how Russia and China’s expanding presence in the Arctic, in space and in critical minerals is reshaping global security. https://www.youtube.com/watch?

Venezuela’s chavista elite is clinging on – but only just

Hugo Chávez’s eyes are everywhere across parts of Caracas, Venezuela’s capital. In stark black and white, his gaze is stamped onto government buildings, public housing blocks and murals. But if the late socialist president could truly see what has become of the movement he founded, he would likely be dismayed. Most Venezuelans have abandoned chavismo. His protégé Nicolás Maduro – who had led the government since 2013 – has been captured by the US, while many Venezuelans cheered his exit. What remains is a thin but loyal chavista base – and a leadership operating firmly in survival mode.

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Is the western alliance dead?

European politicians had little rest this weekend after Donald Trump’s announcement on Saturday that he would be imposing punitive tariffs on the eight countries that had sent troops to Greenland last week. From February 1, 10 percent tariffs will be slapped on goods entering the United States from Britain, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Finland. They had, Trump said, "journeyed to Greenland for purposes unknown" and he accused them of playing a "very dangerous game." Denmark has stated that Greenland is not for sale; Trump is unlikely to back down By sending troops to Greenland on Thursday, those eight countries had only done what Trump implied he had expected of them.

Trump’s Greenland caper will heighten inflation

On February 24, Donald Trump will deliver the first State of the Union speech of his second term as president. That impending date goes a long way toward explaining Trump’s avidity for annexing Greenland – sooner rather than later – as the centerpiece of his program for restoring an American golden age of imperial power. Nothing would please Trump more than to be able to declare mission accomplished when he addresses Congress in February. Far from backing away from the issue, Trump, who will travel to Davos next week, is doubling down. He seems convinced that he can cow European leaders into submission, but the more he badgers them, the greater the likelihood that they begin to resist.

Greenland

These tariffs aren’t just about Greenland

During his visit to Washington, DC, on Wednesday, the Danish foreign minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen said that he had a "frank but also constructive" discussion with Vice President J.D. Vance. He added, however, that the Kingdom of Denmark and the US remained in "fundamental disagreement" about the future security of Greenland. Well, in typically explosive style, Donald Trump has just emphasized how deep that disagreement is. On Truth Social, he has announced, starting on February 1, 10 percent tariffs on all goods sent to the United States from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and the United Kingdom. These charges, he went on, will increase to 25 percent on June 1 unless "a deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland.

Cuba

Cubans want Donald Trump to save them

The US capture of Nicholas Maduro sent a shockwave of fear through the regime in Havana. Heeding the words of Marco Rubio – "If I lived in Havana and I was in the government, I'd be concerned at least a little bit" – the communist government put the military on high alert. "The regime carried out military mobilizations," Camila Acosta, a Cuban journalist detained multiple times for her reporting on the regime, told The Spectator. "They are conducting military exercises at their units, keeping the troops confined to their barracks.”But while the regime looks fearfully to the skies for US commandos, ordinary Cubans look to the skies for salvation – they pray that Donald Trump will send Black Hawks to save them.

The real race problem on the British right

I think it was Zadie Smith who I first heard point out that race is in America what class is in Britain: the conversation underneath every conversation. When I first heard that remark I slightly balked. Not least because one had rather hoped that class would be less of a thing in Britain in the 21st century. I suppose it is, although you do still meet people who treat the English language as though it is a minefield in which one incorrect vowel will suddenly take them out. But if the class stuff still lingers in Britain, the good news is that we now have the American race obsession too. For anyone who hasn’t lived in America, it is hard to describe just how permeated race is into every conversation in the culture.

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jordan bardella

Is Steve Bannon right about Jordan Bardella?

Marine Le Pen returned to a court in Paris on Tuesday as her appeal began against her five-year ban from political life. The leader of the National Rally was disqualified in March last year after she was found guilty of misusing €4 million ($4.6 million) of funds from the European Union. She claims she is the victim of a political witch-hunt, a view supported by President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D Vance. The appeal will last a month and the verdict is expected in June. If Le Pen is successful she will be able to run in the presidential election in April 2027. If she fails, however, it will be her protege, 30-year-old Jordan Bardella, who will represent the National Rally.

Can Europe persuade Trump not to grab Greenland?

When Donald Trump sets his sights on something, it’s hard to prevent him getting what he wants. That hasn’t, however, stopped Greenland and Denmark from trying. The Danish army has announced that, from today, it is boosting its presence on Greenland. It will be backed up by a cohort of European troops, arriving over the coming days as part of an effort to prove to the US that Copenhagen can secure the island’s defenses. Earlier today, France confirmed that 15 troops had arrived on the island. In the coming hours they will be joined by 13 soldiers from Germany, two from Norway, one from Britain, one from the Netherlands and an undisclosed number from Sweden and Estonia. Further waves of troops are expected.

Kyrsten Sinema was too fun for Congress

More like Kyrsten Sinner? In September, a North Carolina woman, Heather Ammel, filed a suit in county court alleging that former Arizona senator and current crypto lobbyist Kyrsten Sinema had an affair with her husband Matthew while he served on her Senate security detail. That suit has since moved to federal court, so now the whole world knows what Cockburn had long suspected: Kyrsten Sinema was too fun for Congress.  For years, Cockburn heard rumors that Sinema dallied about with her security detail during the end of her Senate term. But the Ammel lawsuit codifies it. “She had concerns [Sinema] was having sexual relations with other security members,” the complaint says.   But that’s not the half of it.

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iranians

Why can’t Democrats speak frankly about Iran?

The manicured grounds of Harvard University are tranquil. Ditto the expensive quads of Yale, Princeton, Columbia and Stanford. All across the fruited plain, the self-denominated paragons of virtue who just yesterday sported “Free Palestine” buttons and joined in “No Kings” rallies are greeting today’s greatest enormity – the slaughter of tens of thousands of Iranian citizens by their insane Islamicist government – with the repetition of that hit by Simon and Garfunkel: "The Sounds of Silence." Or, as the headline of a story in National Review put it: "Iranian Civilians Are Being Massacred to the Sound of Progressive Silence." Accurate numbers are hard to come by since the murderous Islamic regime in Iran has shut down public access to the internet.

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The rule of the Ayatollahs is broken. What happens now?

"Help is on the way," promised Donald Trump to the people of Iran defying the Islamic Republic. In the same social media post, the President, characteristically light on detail, also urged Iranian protesters to take over the institutions of the Islamic Republic (presumably by force) and to keep a note of the names and numbers of their oppressors for retribution’s sake. Whatever these words presage – be it air strikes on Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij facilities, or cyberattacks on Iran’s intelligence agencies, to blind the regime as the regime has blinded protesters by shutting down the internet – it remains to be seen if such an intervention will tip the balance in favor of the regime, the protesters, or simply chaos.

Calling Trump a ‘pedophile protector’ was ‘fate’

In a time of political turmoil, the world cried out for a hero, and it may have found one in the person of TJ Sabula, a 40-year-old Ford assembly line worker, who, when Donald Trump visited his plant yesterday, shouted “pedophile protector,” at the President. Trump responded by saying “fuck you,” and “you’re fired,” and flipping Sabula the bird. That was it, we assumed, Sabula’s job was done. You don’t cross the big boss. But though Ford did suspend Sabula without pay, he’s not done yet. Sabula happens to belong to the United Auto Workers, and a UAW representative issued this statement today: “The autoworker at the Dearborn Truck Plant is a proud member of a strong and fighting union – the UAW.

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