Latest from Coffee House

Latest from Coffee House

All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories

Can Trump defeat Senate Republicans over the SAVE Act?

I know that the world is focused on Iran but here’s what President Trump wrote on Truth Social Sunday about the so-called “SAVE Act” (Safeguard American Voter Eligibility): "It supersedes everything else. MUST GO TO THE FRONT OF THE LINE. I, as President, will not sign other Bills until this is passed, AND NOT THE WATERED DOWN VERSION – GO FOR THE GOLD: MUST SHOW VOTER I.D. & PROOF OF CITIZENSHIP: NO MAIL-IN BALLOTS EXCEPT FOR MILITARY – ILLNESS, DISABILITY, TRAVEL."The original bill, introduced by Senator Mike Lee way back in January 2025, has undergone a few enhancements at the hands of Senator Lee's colleagues, but the core desideratum is simple: that American elections must be secure, i.e., only those entitled to vote should be allowed to vote.

John Thune

Why the Venezuela model would be a disaster for Iran

What next for Iran? Donald Trump appears to have a plan: the Venezuela model. The US president has hinted that, just as with the South American nation, he wants to try working with elements inside the existing regime, rather than backing exiled opposition figures. The biggest massacres in Iran’s recent history happened under so-called reformers "We have a formula, Venezuela, smart country," he said this week. "We've taken out 100 million barrels of oil which is now in Houston...being taken care of and made so beautiful in refineries." But if Trump really is planning on copying his playbook for Venezuela in Iran, he should be warned: it will be a disaster. Why? Because, put simply, the Islamic Republic idolizes death over rational thinking.

Trump has been caught flat-footed on Iran

Donald Trump has become something of a sole man. His cabinet members and White House visitors report that the president has developed a penchant for handing out $145 Florsheim shoes in an effort to up their sartorial game. In his Life of Johnson, Boswell reported that Dr. Johnson recoiled at an “eleemosynary supply” of shoes as an impecunious student at Christ Church, Oxford and threw them away with indignation. Trump’s followers have no such freedom of action. “All the boys have them,” one official told the Wall Street Journal, which ran a picture of his administration leaders obediently lined up and wearing the same shiny black leather numbers.

Alberta

Will Alberta become the 51st state?

Albertans are very good at keeping things that damage their prosperity out of their province. Take rats, for instance. The vermin were designated an agricultural menace in the1950s and after 18 months of chemical warfare Alberta – which is the same size as Texas – was declared rat-free. Today a poison-laced buffer zone with Saskatchewan province and a vigilant population stops their return.The leaders of the resurgent Alberta independence campaign have identified a new set of damaging pests to keep out: the federal government in Ottawa and its new ally the Chinese government.

The Iran war is just what Putin’s depleted coffers need

Of all the parties watching the chaos in the Middle East unfold, one should be rubbing its hands together with particular satisfaction. Russia has not fired a shot in this conflict, lost no allies it cannot afford to lose and has so far gained rather a lot, with more to come. A cynic might call it the perfect war for Vladimir Putin. Moscow's public reaction has been characteristically theatrical. The Foreign Ministry denounced American and Israeli actions as a "reckless step" and a "dangerous adventure." Things have gone no further. There has been no announcement of political or military support for Iran from the Kremlin – nor is there likely to be: Russia needs its drones and missiles for Ukraine.

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What Timothée Chalamet gets wrong about opera and ballet

In February, Timothée Chalamet said to his fellow actor Matthew McConaughey, as part of a CNN and Variety town hall: "I don’t want to be working in ballet or opera or things that are, hey, let’s keep this thing alive even though it’s like no one cares about this thing anymore." The studio audience laughed along with Chalamet, while McConaughey weighed in with, "yeah, yeah, yeah, we hear you." Perhaps realizing the offense he was causing, Chalamet added, "with all due respect to the ballet and opera people out there, I just lost 14 cents in viewership." Two weeks passed before the video of this went viral, leading to widespread condemnation of Chalamet’s remarks by those in the ballet world.

Putin is enjoying the Iran war

After Iran unleashed a torrent of missiles against its neighbors – including those with whom it had enjoyed friendly relations such as Turkey and Azerbaijan – few regional leaders are in the mood to congratulate the new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei. Few, but not none. "At a time when Iran is confronting armed aggression, your work in this high office will undoubtedly require great courage and dedication," wrote Vladimir Putin in an official message of congratulation to Khamenei Junior. "I am confident that you will honorably continue your father’s legacy and unite the Iranian people in the face of these severe trials.

Can the US Navy really defend the Strait of Hormuz?

George W. Bush’s war haunts Donald Trump, who is now calling the Iranian operation a “little excursion”. But Iran differs from Iraq in one significant way: Bush spent years fending off accusations that he had invaded for oil, whereas Trump wholeheartedly embraces the idea. In fact, he doesn’t even need to invade a country to get oil flowing.  “I will not allow a terrorist regime to hold the world hostage and attempt to stop the globe’s oil supply,” he said. “And if Iran does anything to do that, they’ll get hit at a much, much harder level,” he said at his golf club in Miami, Florida, last night.

MIAMI, FLORIDA - MARCH 7: U.S. President Donald Trump arrives at Miami International Airport on March 7, 2026. President Trump returned to Miami after attending the Dignified Transfer of six US soldiers killed in Kuwait at the Dover Air Force Base in Dover, Delaware. (Photo by Roberto Schmidt/Getty Images)

Iran: is Trump’s ultimate target in this war China?

30 min listen

As the crisis in the Middle East has escalated, Donald Trump's posturing has led many to question his strategy – and if he even has one. Geoffrey Cain, former foreign correspondent, expert on authoritarian regimes – and the author of this week's cover piece in The Spectator, joins Freddy to explain why Trump's ultimate target in the war is China. From the Belt and Road development initiative to more tacit bilateral support, President Xi has been playing a game of chess, to try to check America's power. With Nicolás Maduro arrested and Ayatollah Khamenei assassinated, President Trump is showing his willingness to project American power, at whatever cost – so far. Cain raises questions for those who assume we're moving to a multipolar world.

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Merz is feeling the pressure of Germany’s state elections

Amid growing uncertainty caused by the US-Israel offensive against Iran and surging gas prices, Germany had its first major election of the year yesterday, with the new state parliament of Baden-Württemberg elected. Forecasts indicate that the Greens, who have been governing the state for the past 15 years, will remain in control of the premier office in Stuttgart, while the Christian Democrats (the CDU) have come in as a close second. Over the past couple of months, it appeared as if the Christian Democrats, with their leading candidate Manuel Hagel, could win the election. But negative vibes from Berlin impacted Hagel's campaign, as promised reforms continue to stall and Friedrich Merz's CDU-led government faces record low approval ratings.

Une bouteille de beaujoulais nouveau à côté d'un repas McDonald's, France, 1994. (Photo by Robert DEYRAIL/Gamma-Rapho via Getty Images)

European culture is being Americanized

Did Mariah Carey mime or not when she headlined the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics in Milan? That was the main takeaway from last month’s jamboree. Organizers have since suggested that the US singer did indeed lip-sync to Domenico Modugno’s “Nel Blu, dipinto di Blu” and the song that followed, her very own, “Nothing is Impossible.” “The technical, logistical and organizational complexities of an Olympic ceremony are not comparable to a live performance by a single artist,” said a spokesperson for the organizing committee.    Was there also a linguistic complexity in the decision? Perhaps Carey didn’t feel confident singing live in Italian in front of 75,000 spectators in the San Siro Stadium, plus the 9.

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Will the war in Iran really weaken China?

Analogies in international politics are tricky and easily abused, yet they remain irresistible because they can illuminate patterns that are otherwise hard to see. Consider the present moment.  Just as Ukraine has become a growing burden for Washington and its Western allies, Iran is now a strategic burden for Moscow and Beijing. The US, particularly under the Trump administration, appears to be placing less emphasis on supporting Ukraine. Something similar may be happening in reverse with Iran.  Moscow continues to provide Tehran with assistance – most notably intelligence on US military targets – but the broader pattern suggests caution rather than deep commitment.

Trump is heading for a hard reckoning over Iran

The social media video with which the White House has promoted its attack on Iran is, even by the standards we’ve come to expect from the Trump administration, grotesque on a level that still manages to be flabbergasting. Prefaced in the usual block capitals “JUSTICE THE AMERICAN WAY”, with a flag and flame emoji of the sort favored by pubescent boys rather than, usually, government agencies, it’s three quarters of a minute of pure brainrot. It isn’t a sign of Trump Derangement Syndrome to consider this video obscene It begins with Tony Stark in front of a bank of computers saying “Wake up. Daddy’s home.

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MAHA, stay in your lane

MAHA ("Make America Healthy Again") is not a foreign policy doctrine, nor should it become one. Nevertheless this week the movement experienced a split with some members urging Congress to introduce a war powers resolution to curb US military action in Iran. But they should be aware that mission creep – the gradual expansion of objectives beyond the original scope – has derailed many well-intentioned efforts in Washington. For MAHA to entangle itself in the complexities of the Iran war risks diluting its message and alienating supporters who joined for healthier schools, cleaner water and safer vaccines.

I love Dubai. Get over it

I am in Dubai where we are doing our best to keep calm and carry on. Granted, the sudden instruction to "seek immediate shelter' in the early hours of Sunday morning was unnerving, but with the exception of excitable "influencers," few people are cowering in their basements. On Saturday evening, I’d hotfooted it to the Palm Jumeirah. When my kids told me the Fairmont hotel had been hit, I didn’t believe them. The idea that the mad mullahs would start lashing out in this direction seemed completely absurd. Though the Emiratis take a far dimmer view of Islamic extremism than our own craven British government, they are careful not to upset "brotherly" neighbors. The UAE has prospered precisely because of this strategic restraint. Surely some mistake?

The homoeroticism of looksmaxxing

"Did you ever think that maybe there’s more to life than being really, really, really, ridiculously good-looking?" So asks Derek Zoolander, before pulling his trademark pout, exhibiting cheekbones that look like they were engineered by Brunel. Zoolander came out a quarter-century ago, but now looks prophetic. Ben Stiller’s gullible, self-obsessed moron would fit right in to today’s world of extreme male vanity. You must take methamphetamines, inject testosterone aged 14 and spend $35,000 on a double-jaw surgery Of course, humans, and, dare I say it, especially a certain type of man, have always been vain. However, for all the time Louis XIV or Rudolf Nureyev spent on their appearance, they did have other strings to their bows.

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Trump isn’t the greatest threat to the Special Relationship

Britain’s refusal to fully back the United States over strikes on Iran has triggered an unusually public transatlantic row. It has also revived an old question about the future of the so-called "Special Relationship." When Donald Trump returned to the White House last year, many in Westminster doubted Keir Starmer could build a workable relationship with him. The two men could hardly be more different in temperament or politics, and predictions of an early rupture were widespread. For a time, however, Starmer appeared to defy those expectations. Britain weathered Trump’s latest tariff wars better than most countries, and the Prime Minister seemed to have found a cautious way of managing Washington’s unpredictability.

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Will the Iran war propel Gavin Newsom to the presidency?

"I’m very angry about this war," said Gavin Newsom, the California Governor, on stage yesterday. Newsom has a memoir, Young Man in a Hurry, to plug, and a serious bid for the presidency in the offing. Like many other ambitious Democrats, he spies in Donald Trump’s new war an opportunity to cause grave damage to the Republicans in November’s midterms – and in the 2028 presidential election, too.  "Six Americans dead, including a young man from Sacramento," he said, beating his chest in a nauseatingly theatrical manner. "You have a President who still cannot explain the rationale. Why now, and what’s the endgame?"Operation Epic Fury, now into its sixth day, has united Democratic politicians in their condemnations of President Trump.

Is it wise for Spain to goad Donald Trump?

Spain’s refusal to allow the United States to use its military bases at Morón de la Frontera (Seville) and Rota (Cádiz) for its war on Iran, arguing that the US-Israeli attacks are "unilateral military actions outside the United Nations charter" has brought the simmering conflict between Pedro Sanchez, Spain’s socialist Prime Minister and President Trump to a head.   Sanchez’s carefully calculated strategy has been to position himself as one of Trump’s leading opponents on the world stage On Wednesday Sanchez followed up by delivering a stunning rebuke to Trump. Speaking for ten minutes on national television, he said that his government's position could be summed up in four words: "No a la guerra" (No to war).

Like that poor dog, Kristi Noem turned out to be untrainable

When Kristi Noem disclosed she once shot the family dog, Cricket, because Cricket was “untrainable”, the world wrote her off as unfit to be Donald Trump’s 2024 running mate. According to a new book, her dog-killing ruthlessness was, in fact, one of the key reasons Trump picked her for Homeland Security Secretary. It may have helped that Trump doesn’t like dogs.  Now that uncompromising approach has been her downfall. Trump has finally snapped and fired her for overshadowing his administration’s immigration achievements – achievements she has made – by turning public sentiment against ICE.

US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem testifies during a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on oversight of the Department of Homeland Security, on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC on March 3, 2026. (Photo by Mandel NGAN / AFP)

Why Iran marks the end of neoconservatism

45 min listen

Spectator columnist and Heritage Foundation fellow Daniel McCarthy joins Freddy to explain how Trump's war with Iran could mark the end of an era, that of neoconservatism. For Daniel, there is no contradiction between Trump's "America First" policy and its overseas interventions: Trump is pursuing a version of hegemony that will reduce the need for future interventions. If all goes to plan, this could mark an ideological watershed that stretches back to the first Gulf War in the early 1990s – but it's a big "if." What if the conflict spirals out of control? To what extent was this driven by Trump, or by Netanyahu? And what are the dynamics at play between the leadership figures in MAGA? Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

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‘Whose side are you on?’: how Keir Starmer alienated Britain’s allies over Iran

The American-Israeli attacks on Iran were publicly called Epic Fury, but behind the scenes it is Britain’s handling of the war which provoked that reaction – not just from Donald Trump but from the UK’s allies in the Gulf. A Labour peer was in Washington when the first missiles slammed into Tehran on Friday evening and Keir Starmer refused to voice support. A member of the Trump administration told the peer: "Britain used to not contribute that much, but you were a good ally. Now you’re contributing nothing and you’re not even a good ally." A version of events has quickly become established: a Prime Minister with a near-religious belief in international law hid behind the advice of his Attorney General, Richard Hermer, that the attacks were illegal.

Who’s winning the missile war?

In the early hours of February 28, 2026, Operation Epic Fury commenced with large-scale American and Israeli air strikes against Iranian military, command, missile and infrastructure targets. Since then, the United States and Israel have conducted extensive operations against Iran, while Iran has retaliated with missile strikes against US bases, Israel and its regional neighbors. This is an initial assessment of the missile war, which has defined the early stages of this conflict. Over the past two nights, Iranian ballistic missile usage appears to have decreased sharply The central military dynamic between Israel and the United States on the one hand, and Iran on the other, can be understood as a race to the bottom.

Why Iran is not Iraq

At the moment, a lot of people – notably including the British Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer – are comparing the current war with Iran with the Iraq invasion of 2003. Do they have a point? There are several common claims of comparison, some good, some bad. When Saddam fell, there was little appetite in Iraq for a western-aligned replacement The principal claim, in Starmer's case, is that what happened in Iraq means the UK should steer well clear of any further involvement anywhere. It reminds me of the final scene in that magnificent film, Chinatown. A private detective moves to intervene to stop a horror unfolding but one of his associates holds him back, saying, “Leave it, Jake, it’s Chinatown.” In this reading, the Middle East is Chinatown.

What role will Turkey play in the Iran conflict?

34 min listen

Today NATO forces intercepted an Iranian missile headed for Turkey. While it remains unclear where that missile was intended to land, questions have emerged over whether President Erdoğan can continue his strategy of geopolitical pragmatism. So far the Turkish leader has managed to appeal to China, Russia, Europe and the US. But will he be forced to pick a side? Freddy discusses this with Spectator writer Owen Matthews and the recent reemergence of Kurdish forces being funded by Israel and the US to attack the Iranian regime. https://www.youtube.com/watch?

The Texas Republican revolt

Following last night’s primaries, Texas Democrats have a clear Senate candidate in James Talarico. Texas Republicans have a civil war. Ken Paxton and John Cornyn are headed for a nasty and expensive three-month runoff that will culminate in an election on May 26. Cornyn has made no secret of his disdain for Paxton, deeming him a “dead weight.” Are Texas Republicans facing an Alamo scenario, a last stand as the Democrats swarm over their defenses to reclaim the Lone Star state and the Senate majority? More than 2.4 million Texans cast ballots in the Democratic primary, the highest number in nearly two decades. The significance of Talarico’s victory over Jasmine Crockett can hardly be overstated.

Does Trump even know why he invaded Iran?

Napoleon is supposed to have defined strategy as "on s’engage, et puis on voit," loosely translated as "get stuck in and then see what happens." Donald Trump is not normally deemed Napoleonic, yet in his approach to strategy he appears to have taken the great general’s precept to heart, launching initiatives without much forethought regarding consequences or further steps in the light of unexpected developments. When the consequences turn out to be unwelcome, he swiftly readjusts, discarding the initial scheme in favor of an alternative course of action, as often as not headlong retreat. Thus the swingeing Liberation Day tariff regime unveiled with much fanfare in April 2025 was swiftly suspended in the face of crashing markets.

Iranian attacks aren’t worrying Washington

Many commentators are already claiming that the war with Iran is “spiraling out of control.” I try not to be uncharitable: I am a Catholic, after all, and the Church tells me it is a sin. But if I were tempted, I should say that the only thing spiraling out of control is cliché. You could argue that drone attacks are a sign that Iran’s ballistic and cruise missiles aren’t actually proving that effective Iran said it would hit out wildly if it were attacked. It also made clear that direct attacks on the leadership of the Islamic Republic would be treated as an existential threat.

Will Iran descend into civil war?

33 min listen

Freddy is joined by historian and former diplomat Charlie Gammell. They discuss the situation in Iran, whether the US is heading for a decisive confrontation, and examine the regional consequences: proxy warfare, Gulf energy security, Pakistan’s delicate position, and migration pressures on Europe. https://www.youtube.com/watch?

Chaos in Iran spells trouble for the Taliban

The US-Israeli attack on Iran presents an opportunity to get rid of the Taliban in Afghanistan. If there is a collapse of central authority in Iran, tens of thousands of Afghan former soldiers living in exile there could use the power vacuum to mobilize, return home and fight against the Taliban. There are several resistance groups who have advanced plans to fight but need a reliable haven outside the country to launch attacks inside Afghanistan. Iran, which has a 600-mile border with the country, could be the launchpad they need. This represents a unique opportunity for Afghanistan, as for the first time the country faces conflict on both sides.