Politics

Read about the latest political news, views and analysis

Wednesday

Steerpike

Theresa May and the 48 letters: a year of false alarms

Once again, rumours began to swirl around Westminster on Tuesday that there would – finally – be a confidence vote in Theresa May. News outlets and journalists on Twitter breathlessly announced that the chairman of the 1922 committee, Graham Brady, had received the necessary 48 letters from MPs to call a confidence vote. Unfortunately for them, all the speculation ended up being untrue. Despite frequent claims that a Tory revolt is underway, the numbers never quite seem to add up. Only Brady himself knows how many letters MPs have sent, and he confirmed later that the threshold had not been reached this time. This led Mr S to think: haven't politicians and pundits predicted Theresa May's impending doom several times before?

Tuesday

James Forsyth

From Dante’s first circle of hell to Black Wednesday, this week’s Cabinet meeting

If last week’s Cabinet was a unified affair with everyone agreeing about the problems with the EU’s version of the backstop, today’s was not. On the one hand, you had Geoffrey Cox warning that the backstop would be like being stuck in Dante’s first circle of hell. On the other, you had David Lidington, the effective deputy Prime Minister, telling ministers that he was the only one who had been an MP on Black Wednesday and they couldn’t have that level of chaos again, which—by implication—there would be with no deal. I understand that Jeremy Hunt spoke very forcefully about how the UK couldn’t be stuck in an indefinite backstop and that the EU mustn’t be able to unilaterally stop this country from leaving it.

Isabel Hardman

May to face 1922 Committee as rumours of rebel letters swirl

Theresa May is to face her MPs at the 1922 Committee tomorrow, it has been confirmed. There had been calls for the Prime Minister to do so, after feverish speculation that Tory MPs were plotting to remove her because of her disappointing Brexit performance. She has clearly decided to take on those critics and face her party, rather than hide and hope that this is all going to go away. One of the reasons MPs are increasingly dissatisfied with the Prime Minister is that she isn't offering any sense of progress towards a deal, and there will again be demands for her to show that she will win a concession from Brussels and secure a deal.

Why Leavers should support a border in the Irish Sea | 23 October 2018

Would it really be so terrible if there were checks at the Irish Sea instead of at the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland? Such checks could be carried out without threatening the constitutional status of Northern Ireland as part of the UK. Some say that there should be no differences between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK but there are already differences of the most fundamental kind. The Belfast Agreement accepts that if the majority of people in Northern Ireland vote to join the republic then the UK government will not stand in their way. There is also a British-Irish Council which gives the Irish Government a role in policy making north of the border.

Steerpike

Will Bercow get his Betty Boothroyd moment?

This week the House of Commons commission will meet to discuss its response to the Cox report on bullying and harassment at Westminster. The report concludes that a number of officials, including one John Bercow, could need to stand down in order for real change to come about. Only there is very little chance of that happening as Labour MPs have rallied around the Speaker on the grounds that they think Bercow will be sympathetic to their cause on important Brexit decisions. As Margaret Beckett put it, Brexit ‘trumps’ bullying. So, what role will Bercow play in the coming months? If no deal has been reached by 21 January, it has been thought that who ever is in the Speaker's chair would get to decide whether MPs could amend the Brexit motion.

Monday

Katy Balls

Theresa May tries to calm Tory nerves over Brexit – ‘we are 95 per cent there’

Theresa May tried her best to persuade grumpy MPs that a Brexit deal was still in sight when she addressed the Commons this evening. With colleagues from across the Conservative party losing faith in No 10's negotiating strategy, the Prime Minister insisted that '95 per cent of the Withdrawal Agreement and its protocols are now settled'. The trouble is the remaining 5 per cent is the most difficult. As May herself admitted, the main sticking point is 'a considerable one': the Irish border. With the Brexit talks at an impasse over the terms of the Irish backstop – the arrangement the UK would fall back on to avoid a hard border if no new trade deal is in place by the end of the transition – few believe a solution is in sight.

Steerpike

The minister that parliament forgot

After a hectic political summer, with multiple cabinet resignations and minor rebellions, even the most seasoned of Westminster watchers were struggling to keep track of all the junior ministers in Theresa May's team. But even after the resignation dust has settled, it seems that Commons staff are still struggling to remember who's in the government and who's left. To highlight that questions were taking place in the chamber about defence, their social media team released this video, featuring the department's ministers: Tobias Ellwood, Gavin Williamson, Mark Lancaster and err, Guto Bebb: https://twitter.com/HouseofCommons/status/1054366769257811968 Only somewhat embarrassingly for them and him, Bebb resigned from the government in July over a Brexit vote.

Robert Peston

Will the Tory moderates turn on Theresa May?

There is an operation in progress by Tory Brexiters to persuade fellow backbenchers to write to Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 backbench committee, calling for a vote of no confidence in Theresa May as leader of their party. This is what one of them told me: 'I’m campaigning myself. We need 60-70 letters, not 48... I know people who are putting letters in today. I think we are the closest ever to her going and I think, thank God, this could be it.' The reference to 48 letters is the threshold for triggering the vote. But this MP wants a comfortable margin above that, so that the PM can see that a sizeable number of her colleagues want her to go. This is not an exquisitely centralised and coordinated campaign against her.

Lloyd Evans

What I learned at the People’s Vote march | 22 October 2018

Two beliefs obsess the Remain cause. First, that voters were lied to during the referendum campaign. (Questionable). Second, that the negotiations are being botched. (Indisputable). But while Remainers believe that their opponents are fibbers, they can’t see that they too are being misled. At the People’s Vote rally last Saturday, I found general acceptance of these four myths. 1. Brexit is a ‘far-right’ policy. 2. Europe will be closed to Britons after we leave. 3. The EU is run by saints who negotiate in good faith. 4. A second vote will heal the divisions caused by Brexit. The rally was vast and good-tempered. Many demonstrators had come to be photographed rather than to protest.

Brendan O’Neill

The real reason snobs are calling for a Ryanair boycott | 22 October 2018

If you had to draw up a list of people and things it is de rigueur to loathe, it would definitely include Ryanair. Tabloid newspapers, Jeremy Clarkson, Brexit, red-hued men who pop up in the Question Time audience to moan about Jeremy Corbyn, and Ryan-bloody-air — these are things that every self-respecting member of the chattering class must bristle against. And that is why one moral error made by a Ryanair crew member has led to demands for the entire company to be boycotted. ‘Let’s all boycott this airline!’, the right-on have cried in response to a racist incident on a flight being badly handled by an attendant. Yeah, right, like these people would ever deign to use this cheap airline with its cheap passengers in the first place.

Katy Balls

Hell month – week III: Theresa May attempts to reset the dial

Theresa May is entering her third week of Brexit hell. With no resolution in sight on the issue of the Irish border and suspicion growing over No 10's grand plan, the Tory party is looking more fractious than ever. As James notes on Coffee House, although every week there are reports of plotting and an incoming confidence vote, it does seem as though there has been a further deterioration of party morale that could prove the last straw. In a bid to avoid that fate, May has penned an article for today's Sun in which she strikes a more personal tone than usual and promises to press on: 'Turn on the TV most days and you’ll find someone speculating about what the Brexit talks mean for Theresa May. Has it been a good day or a bad day for me? Am I up or down?

Sunday

Matthew Taylor

Sunday shows round-up: Dominic Raab – ‘We need to hold our nerve’

Dominic Raab - 'We need to hold our nerve' Andrew Marr was joined by the Brexit Secretary as the deadline for achieving a deal with the European Union draws ever closer. Marr asked Dominic Raab about rumours that the mood in the party is restless enough to trigger a leadership contest against Theresa May, with the influential 1922 Committee of Conservative backbenchers reportedly nearing the critical threshold of 48 signatures. Raab told his colleagues that now was the time 'to play for the team': AM: What is your message to all of your colleagues who look at this and say 'This is a complete shambles'? DR: We're at the end stage of the negotiation. I think it's understandable there are jitters on all sides of this debate. We need to hold our nerve.

James Forsyth

What has changed with Tory leadership plotting

Ever since Chequers there has been almost constant speculation about an attempt to remove Theresa May but with nothing actually happening. So it is tempting to ignore it all, to conclude that those agitating against Mrs May are all hat and no cattle. But this weekend, something does appear to have changed. Whether it leads to anything remains to be seen, but the shift in the mood does seem worth relating. Yesterday, I received a phone call from a former Cabinet Minister who had never told me before that May should go. This time, he was clear not only that she should, but that there was an active effort underway to bring this about. The thing that I was struck most about was this former Secretary of State’s anger, there was much Anglo-Saxon language and talk of national humiliation.

Saturday

Steerpike

People’s Vote march placards: the good, the bad and the ugly

It's the day of the People's Vote march and over half a million protesters are estimated to have descended on the capital to call for a second referendum. The pro-EU protesters have brought with them a range of placards – while some parents have opted to simply save paper and write pro-EU slogans on their children's backs. Mr S will leave readers to rank today's offerings: https://twitter.com/brokenbottleboy/status/1053612226219831296 https://twitter.com/HenryCPorter/status/1053646639750098945 https://twitter.com/mpvine/status/1053678434369572864 https://twitter.com/mpvine/status/1053681304376614914 https://twitter.com/mpvine/status/1053679945598296065 https://twitter.com/mpvine/status/1053677481092374529 https://twitter.

Steerpike

Hugh Grant marches for the people… from France

The EU flags, glitter berets and bad taste posters are out in full force today as the People's Vote march hits London. Among the big names expected to attend are Alastair Campbell (still trying to work out what makes this march different to the anti-Iraq one in terms of effectiveness) while Philip Lee – the one time junior minister – may join later. As for Hugh Grant, the pro-EU Notting Hill actor has unfortunately had to send his apologies. Grant is currently in France – but has promised to perform a solitary march from the French village he is holidaying in: https://twitter.com/HackedOffHugh/status/1053606027332120576 That will show them.

Steerpike

People’s Vote campaigner’s sick suicide jibe

Oh dear. Today hundreds of thousands of 'People's Vote' campaigners are set to take to the streets as they campaign for a second referendum – or to use their words: a vote on the final deal. Only it's not got off to the best start. A Twitter account by the name of Chesterfield EU has been sharing pictures of their branch's journey to London – including a picture of the bus they are on. The vehicle is adorned with pro-EU slogans: https://twitter.com/ChesterfieldEU/status/1053559506750373888 But there's one in particular that caught Mr S's eye: 'UK now in so much trouble government appointed Suicide Minister! Don't top yourself... Demand a People's Vote.' https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/1053590579068702720 Stay classy now.

James Forsyth

Why Theresa May needs an escape clause

Theresa May has one route to a Brexit deal that can avoid irrevocably splitting her party and bringing down her government, I say in The Sun this morning. She needs to persuade the European Union to replace the Northern Ireland backstop with a UK-wide one and to accept an escape clause to show that this temporary UK/EU customs union won’t become permanent. Influential Cabinet Ministers expect the government to decide on the escape clause it will propose to Brussels in the coming days. The Brexit negotiations will then resume with the EU in the second half of next week. Key Cabinet Ministers have one test for the escape clause: is it legally meaningful.

Ross Clark

Is William Hague to blame for the Tories’ troubles?

If Britain crashes out of the EU with no deal and the Conservatives plunge to a defeat against Labour in a subsequent general election, Theresa May, not without reason, will take the blame. But the blame will not be all hers. William Hague will deserve a fair slice of it as well.   It has become quite clear that May is not going to achieve a decent deal. The task is beyond her. She does not have the imagination to know where to go next, and she has already painted herself into a corner. She staked her entire authority on her Chequers plan – a solution which, it soon became clear, had virtually no support other than that of May herself.

Friday

Jamie Bartlett

Nick Clegg is perfect for Facebook

In his brilliant insider-account of his time at Facebook, Chaos Monkey, Antonio Garcia Martinez describes the process of ‘onboarding’. It’s the quasi-religious ceremony of inducting new staff into the company. “Whatever you learned at your previous job” Martinez was told, “whatever politics and bullshit you’re bringing with you, just leave all that shit behind.” I doubt Nick Clegg will do the same when he takes up his new role as Facebook’s head of global affairs. I’m guessing that his politics and bullshit is the reason he got the job.   While his reputation was – slightly unfairly – damaged by the student fees debacle, Clegg is someone with pretty solid liberal credentials.

Steerpike

Are Labour any better than Nick Clegg when it comes to Facebook?

When the FT revealed today that former Lib Dem leader and deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg was joining Facebook as a head of global affairs, there was a predictable chorus of outrage from Labour MPs. In a statement, Labour’s Jon Trickett decried Clegg’s new position as: ‘a damning indictment of the sorry state of our country's politics that, at a time when digital giants such as Facebook are rightly coming under public scrutiny, our former Deputy Prime Minister has been hired to lobby on their behalf. Labour is committed to slamming shut the revolving door between politics and big business, which for too long has corroded public trust in politics.