Michael Simmons

Michael Simmons

Michael Simmons is The Spectator's economics editor.

Wednesday

Michael Simmons

The madness of crowds is keeping markets afloat

From our UK edition

‘I’m done with Trump,’ fumed a normally MAGA-supportive retail trader as he watched an investment that was particularly Hormuz-sensitive collapse. But, perhaps surprisingly, his frustration at the war is not shared more widely by stock pickers. Despite the geopolitical turmoil of the war in Iran, equities (shares in listed companies) have been on an upward romp for the past year. Since Donald Trump was inaugurated for the second time, the Standard and Poor’s 500 index is up 25 per cent. Stock markets almost everywhere have been hitting record high after record high. It doesn’t make much sense. This hasn’t been a good year for the world economy. The constant closing and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices skyward.

Michael Simmons

How long can this inflation story last for Burnham?

From our UK edition

Figures released this morning by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show inflation fell to 2.6 per cent in June – down from the 2.8 per cent recorded the month before and the lowest rate since March last year. The slowdown was mostly driven by lower fuel costs at petrol and diesel pumps, while food pressures eased too. It’s welcome news for new Prime Minister Andy Burnham and his Chancellor John Healey as they look to crack on with their measures aimed at tackling the cost of living. Whilst the rate of price rises remains well above the Bank of England’s two per cent target, it is trending downwards far faster than the Bank’s forecasts had suggested.

Tuesday

Michael Simmons

John Healey’s nightmare first day as Chancellor

From our UK edition

John Healey has been hit with a triple whammy on his first full day as Chancellor of the Exchequer. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has just published the latest figures on jobs, public sector finances as well as an update on their troubled Labour Force Survey (LFS). There’s bad news, news that only looks good because it’s less bad than usual and truly disastrous news. First of the three is the jobs destruction – kicked off by the previous Chancellor’s £25 billion National Insurance tax raid and hikes to the minimum wage. This has continued with 85,000 more employees disappearing from payrolls compared with a year ago, with the unemployment rate falling only slightly to 4.9 per cent. But the jobs figures are really bad news when you split them out by age group.

Monday

Michael Simmons

Andy Burnham would be mad to introduce rent controls

From our UK edition

Andy Burnham’s government could be entertaining to watch but disastrous for the country. Reports suggest that one of the options Burnham could announce to immediately tackle the cost of living is some form of rent control. If true, he’s already lost the plot. He must surely know that rent controls do not work. They may immediately stop rents climbing in the subset of properties whatever controls he announces are applied to, but beyond that the result will be entirely predictable: a collapse in rental supply as landlords sell up and flee the market; staggering rent hikes when the freeze comes to an end; and trapped tenants because new lease prices will shoot up as landlords attempt to recoup losses from elsewhere.

Thursday

Michael Simmons

Reeves out, Shabana in?

From our UK edition

15 min listen

Rachel Reeves has delivered what is likely to be her valedictory Mansion House speech, defending her record on growth, borrowing and the public finances. But with businesses counting the cost of higher employers’ National Insurance and Labour preparing for a change of government, what will her legacy be? Meanwhile, the race to become Andy Burnham’s chancellor appears to be shifting. Ed Miliband was once seen as the frontrunner, but some around Burnham fear that he would be too powerful – and too resistant to their plans for devolution and Treasury reform. Shabana Mahmood is now being tipped for the job, but would moving her from the Home Office prove a costly mistake? Noa Hoffman speaks to James Heale and Michael Simmons. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Reeves out, Shabana in?

Wednesday

Michael Simmons

Shut up about your disability

From our UK edition

Britain is crippled. More of us than ever before are disabled. One in four, at the last count. But it is a statistic so obviously at odds with reality that anyone with working eyesight should question it. Instead, it has been adopted as fact by government, doctors, charities and benefits assessors. This mass collapse in health – nearly four million more people describing themselves as disabled in the past decade – is driven, we are told, by genuinely worsening mental health and a surge in diagnoses of conditions such as ADHD and autism. So vast is the problem that a government review last week found the sickness-welfare system ‘not fit for purpose’.

Michael Simmons

Waving goodbye to Rachel Reeves

From our UK edition

Rachel Reeves last night made what is surely her final Mansion House speech to the business bigwigs, obscure liverymen and bankers of the City of London. It was an address to perhaps the only people who feel any fondness for this Chancellor. Reeves’s legacy – beyond being the least popular chancellor ever, according to polling – is unemployment and business destruction. Her £25 billion raid on national insurance, coupled with hikes to the minimum wage, has, without any doubt, led to the rising unemployment we have seen in the past few years. Small, medium and large business owners spent her entire chancellorship complaining – justifiably – about how punitive and preventative the tax system had become for them.

Thursday

Michael Simmons

The white working class ceiling, private schools & why Britain’s failing – with Joanna Marchong

From our UK edition

A report has suggested that white working class children are being failed by the education system that is 'not serving in [their] interests'. Burnham blames a lack of aspiration – but does this issue, like many others in Britain really stem from an overbearing state? Michael Simmons is joined by the Head of Communications and External Affairs at Onward, Joanna Marchong to discuss educational outcomes between ethnicities and the private school VAT charge.

The white working class ceiling, private schools & why Britain's failing – with Joanna Marchong

Friday

Michael Simmons

Richard Madeley, Michael Simmons, Gus Carter & Arabella Byrne

From our UK edition

24 min listen

On this week’s Spectator Out Loud: Richard Madeley wonders if anyone in the media still drinks; Michael Simmons asks if the UK is ready for Andy Burnham’s first Budget; Gus Carter explains the Spectator’s role in the birth of America; and finally, Arabella Byrne provides her notes on coconut water. Produced and presented by Patrick Gibbons.

Richard Madeley, Michael Simmons, Gus Carter & Arabella Byrne

Wednesday

Michael Simmons

‘It’s going to make Liz Truss look like a savant’: Are you ready for Burnham’s first Budget?

From our UK edition

If I were Andy Burnham, I’d be terrified about the inheritance Keir Starmer has left. Yet instead of stepping gingerly towards Downing Street, he’s bounding along with glee. So delighted is he, in fact, that he seems not to have noticed that he’s walking into a trap. The problem for Burnham is that the snare has been laid by his own supporters. ‘He was brilliant,’ an elderly Mancunian woman said in a documentary about the Greater Manchester mayor last week. ‘Ten out of ten – 12 out of ten if you want. [My son] had 18 things wrong with him and within a couple of days [Burnham got him] the top rate of PIP.’ Everywhere Andy goes and every time he bumps into a voter, his spending incontinence kicks in and a new promise is made.

Tuesday

Michael Simmons

Inside the £2 billion black market threatening Britain’s high streets

From our UK edition

37 min listen

Illegal tobacco is estimated to cost the UK around £2 billion a year in lost tax revenue, while undercutting legitimate retailers and providing a lucrative market for organised crime. Sarah Connor, UK director of communications at JTI, Rohan Pike, an international illicit trade expert and former police officer, and Andrew Boff, Conservative chair of the London Assembly, join The Spectator’s economics editor Michael Simmons to discuss how illegal tobacco is affecting Britain’s high streets.

Friday

Michael Simmons

Why Makerfield changes everything | Tim Shipman, James Lyons, Luke Tryl & Michael Simmons

From our UK edition

35 min listen

Andy Burnham has won what may come to be seen as the most consequential by-election in recent memory. Political journalism has a tendency towards hyperbole, but the situation is clear: Burnham is on his way to Westminster with significant backing to take on Keir Starmer; he has proved that he can beat Reform on a ‘stop Starmer’ ticket and will now look to translate that message nationally; he also appears to have united the left behind him, with the Lib Dems and Greens barely registering in Makerfield. Meanwhile, the right is splintered. Reform’s momentum has been seriously dented, while the Tories have been buoyed by a welcome by-election victory in Aberdeen South.

Why Makerfield changes everything | Tim Shipman, James Lyons, Luke Tryl & Michael Simmons
Michael Simmons

Why Andy Burnham could be tempted by a snap election

From our UK edition

Andy Burnham has catapulted his way back to Westminster in a landslide victory, winning 55 per cent of the vote in Makerfield. The scale of that victory – and how much he trounced Reform – means it’s likely the Labour party hands him the keys to No. 10 in weeks rather than months as James Heale said on Coffee House this morning. The scale of his by-election victory is the only card Andy Burnham has to play But if I were the soon-to-be-former Manchester mayor, I would not want the keys to that particular door. An economic mess is all that awaits inside. And that mess was made worse by the latest figures on the public finances released this morning by the Office for National Statistics. They show the Treasury had to borrow £23.

Thursday

Michael Simmons

The cost-of-living crisis is not over yet

From our UK edition

Unsurprisingly, the Bank of England has voted to keep interest rates at 3.75 per cent. The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which decides these things, split 7-2 in favour of the decision. A hold in rates is welcome but had largely been priced in already, given yesterday’s cooler-than-expected inflation figures, which saw the consumer price index increase by an unchanged 2.8 per cent. Then, if it was not already a certainty, this morning’s figures on the jobs market confirmed things, with a fall in the unemployment rate – albeit caused by a jump in economic inactivity rather than job creation. The conversation now moves to when the MPC will feel able to cut rates. Talk of future hikes to control inflation is starting to become redundant.

Michael Simmons

Economic gloom is Keir Starmer’s real legacy

From our UK edition

This week has been described by some as Keir Starmer’s ‘legacy week’. The ban on social media and the G7 summit in Evian were meant to show what this Prime Minister has been able to achieve at home and abroad for the safety of us all. No. 10 disputes that it is anything about legacy, of course, and says it actually demonstrates a Prime Minister who puts country over party and is determined to fight on. Whatever the truth, figures just released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) cement what Starmer should really be remembered for. New recruits in British firms hit their lowest level in five years, while 138,000 jobs disappeared from payrolls in the year to April and 53,000 in a single month.

Wednesday

Michael Simmons

Rachel Reeves owes Britain’s supermarkets an apology

From our UK edition

The Chancellor will be breathing a sigh of relief this morning as inflation holds steady. Figures just released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that CPI in May remained at 2.8 per cent – the same as in April. That news is welcome and goes against the grain of economic analysis, which had forecast a rise to 3 per cent. The fall in April was largely deemed to be artificial, thanks to last year’s massive increase in regulated and inflation-linked utility bills falling out of the series. However, that did not come to pass. According to the ONS, a rise in transport costs, thanks to increased air fares, vehicle taxes and petrol prices, was offset by falling inflation in meat, dairy and vegetables, in what is surely welcome news for shoppers.

Monday

Michael Simmons

DEBATE: is Starmer right to ban social media for under 16s?

From our UK edition

18 min listen

Keir Starmer has announced his plans to ban social media for under 16s in Britain. The ban is due to come in early next year and include all main social media apps. Age-recognition and digital ID checks will be used to keep children away from social media. But when it comes to child safety, will it make a difference? And what are the unintended consequences of a ban? Michael Simmons challenges The Spectator's John Power. This episode is brought to you by Artemis Fund Managers, for more information on our fund range please click here https://www.artemisfunds.com/ .

DEBATE: is Starmer right to ban social media for under 16s?
Michael Simmons

Why Trump’s Iran deal won’t save Starmer

From our UK edition

13 min listen

Donald Trump has announced a deal to end the war between Iran and the US, but in Westminster, the relief comes with serious questions. What does the deal actually contain? Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen quickly enough to bring down oil prices? And could any economic boost come too late to save Keir Starmer? Elsewhere, Keir Starmer has announced under-16s will be banned from social media by spring 2027. The policy may be popular with parents, but the details remain sketchy: how would it be enforced, would it require facial recognition or digital ID, and could teenagers simply get around it with VPNs? Tim Shipman and Michael Simmons discuss with Megan McElroy.

Thursday

Michael Simmons

The Waspi women are grifters

From our UK edition

One of the things wrong with Britain is our inability to say no to campaign groups once they win a hearing on the One Show. One rare exception to that has been Starmer’s cabinet standing up to Women Against State Pension Inequality (Waspi) – the least deserving compensation group in the history of these isles. At the beginning of this year, Welfare Secretary Pat McFadden recommitted the government to the decision to refuse compensation to the 3.6 million women born in the 1950s who claimed not to have been informed that their state pension age would rise to bring it into line with the male retirement age. McFadden was right to make that decision because the claim is beyond baseless.

How corporate woke sent Pride broke
Michael Simmons

How corporate woke sent Pride broke

From our UK edition

For years, Pride month has been an unmissable fixture in the corporate calendar. But recently, many of the world’s biggest brands appear to be quietly backing away – toning down campaigns, dropping rainbow logos and retreating from the culture wars. The Spectator’s economics editor Michael Simmons looks at why corporate Pride is losing its commercial appeal. Is this a genuine shift in public opinion, a fear of consumer backlash, or simply a case of companies deciding that activism no longer pays? Brendan O’Neill also joins the show to discuss what the retreat from Pride says about business, politics and the changing culture of corporate virtue-signalling.