Jonathan Spyer is a journalist and Middle East analyst. He is director of research at the Middle East Forum and the author of The Transforming Fire: The Rise of the Israel-Islamist Conflict.
With diplomatic talks between the US and Iran set to take place in Muscat, Oman, today, the prospects for de-escalation between the two countries appear slim to non-existent. Teheran is clear that it is prepared to discuss only its nuclear programme and has so far refused the White House’s demands to put its ballistic missile
As Syrian government forces advance into the formerly Kurdish controlled north east of the country, the issue of future arrangements at the camps holding Isis members and their families has become a matter of increasing urgency. This issue has two levels – one more immediate, the other more structural and long term. The first level is concerned
The near-total internet blackout imposed by the regime in Iran has now continued for nearly a week. Behind the veiled effort to cut the country off from the world, sufficient evidence has emerged to establish a clear picture of what the authorities are attempting. In a move wearyingly familiar to all observers of the contemporary Middle
Israeli aircraft struck targets in Lebanon on Monday. Hezbollah and Hamas military infrastructure was targeted in the Hezbollah heartland of the Beka’a, and in Hatta and Aanan villages in the south of the country, according to a Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman. The Israeli strikes came days after the expiry of the 31 December deadline
The killing of Lebanese Hezbollah military chief Haytham Ali Tababtabai by Israel this week reflects how much the balance of power between Jerusalem and the Iran-backed Shia Islamist group has shifted since the year-long war between the two in 2023 and 2024. Yet, paradoxically, Tabatabai’s killing also shows that nothing has been finally settled between
Indications that the Islamic State (Isis) has begun to employ artificial intelligence in its efforts to recruit new fighters should come as no surprise. At the height of its power a decade ago, Isis was characterised by its combination of having mastered the latest methods of communication with an ideology and praxis that seemed to
As the Gaza ceasefire struggles into its second month, a significant difference between the position of Israel and that of its chief ally, the United States, on the way forward is emerging. This difference reflects broader gaps in perception in Jerusalem and Washington regarding the nature and motivations of the current forces engaged in the
In the latest blow to the beleaguered Gaza ceasefire, Israeli aircraft this week struck targets in Gaza City after Hamas carried out an attack using rocket-propelled grenades and sniper fire on IDF soldiers in the Rafah area. One Israeli reserve soldier was killed in the Hamas attack. The exchanges of fire took place amid continued Hamas
Today marks two years of Israel’s Gaza war. The current conflict is perhaps now close to conclusion, depending on the negotiations in Egypt over President Trump’s peace plan. It is already the longest war that the Jewish state has fought since its establishment in 1948. It isn’t the bloodiest conflict Israel has been involved in, though
Israel’s operation to conquer Gaza city is now entering its third day. Two IDF divisions are engaged on the ground. These are Division 98, which is the IDF’s airborne formation, and Division 162, a mechanised unit. An additional division, the 36th, is set to join the fighting in the coming days. As of now, Israeli
The sirens began at about 5 am. A Houthi ballistic missile was on its way, over Jerusalem, in the direction of the coastal plain. After half a minute or so, I began to hear the familiar sound of doors scraping and muffled voices, as people made their way to the shelter. It has become
Israel’s security cabinet yesterday approved the Israel Defense Force’s plans for a major operation into Gaza City. The cabinet decision comes after the mobilisation of 60,000 IDF reservists over the past week. Israeli forces are already operating on the outskirts of the city. Should the operation commence, it appears set to bring five Israeli divisions into areas
With the ceasefire between Iran and Israel so far holding, a preliminary assessment of the 12-day campaign is now possible. Jerusalem and its US ally achieved a considerable amount. Iran’s deficiencies on a tactical level were laid bare. Structural flaws in Tehran’s strategy of war by proxy have been made apparent. Both the nuclear and ballistic missile programmes have
America’s entry into the war against Iran is the latest step up an escalation spiral that began in October 2023. What started with an attack by a Palestinian Islamist organisation on a poorly defended Israeli border, and then became a fight between Israel and a series of Iran-supported Islamist paramilitary groups by the end of 2023,
The Middle East currently stands at a crossroads. The future geopolitical balance and perhaps also the historical direction of the region depend on the outcome of the war currently underway between Israel and Iran. With the US poised on the cusp of possible intervention, it’s important to grasp the nature and dimension of what is
As Israel advances its surgical reduction of Iran’s nuclear facilities and senior command, and Iran continues to launch missiles randomly at Israeli population centres in response, it is interesting to note what is not happening. Notably absent is any ground element to the war, which is currently being fought entirely between air and missile forces. Israel
With the launch of Operation ‘Rising Lion’, Israel appears to have sought to take advantage of a narrow window of opportunity. Through its own actions over the last 18 months, the Iranian regime brought itself to a moment of extreme vulnerability. Tehran found itself in an uncomfortable position in which it continued to seek to prosecute
US Envoy Steve Witkoff finally received an answer to his latest proposal for a ceasefire and hostage exchange in Gaza over the weekend from Hamas: a no in all but name. This apparent rejection by the terror group confirms the essential issue under dispute in the conflict. The Gaza Islamist movement is determined to secure
Over the weekend, the US and Iran held opening talks in Oman on Teheran’s nuclear programme. With the first round concluded, the Iranian regime’s position on the negotiations is becoming clearer. The Islamic regime, which prides itself on its strategic patience, intends to buy time, while avoiding any major and irreversible concessions. Whether Donald Trump’s administration will
Shock and outrage are appropriate, but no one really has an excuse for being surprised at the dreadful scenes that have emerged from Syria’s western coastal region in recent days. The civilian death toll is now thought to be somewhere above 750, with over 1,000 people killed in total (Alawi sources place the number much
