Ukip

I guess the ‘unite the Right’ memo has not got through to some Tories, with Michael Heseltine calling Ukip 'a racist party' and James Wharton saying they’re ‘an awkward group of strange people’. That may be unwise — rather like attacking your customer-base — but it’s also untrue. Small Right-wing parties have a huge disadvantage because, although lots of people are socially conservative, soc-cons tend on average to be low in social skills and charisma and so the normals are easily driven away by the weirds, especially when immigration is an issue.

The Tory party has been at peace with itself this week. Eurosceptic backbenchers have given Nigel Farage a verbal kicking on the fringe, Cabinet ministers have stuck resolutely to the ‘hard- working’ conference script, and even Boris Johnson has behaved himself. Gay marriage, which so divided the leadership from the grassroots, has barely been mentioned, and you’d never know that just a month ago David Cameron lost a Commons vote on Syria. The new harmonious mood has come about in part because the leadership has moved towards the rest of the party. Tory conference was once decorated with posters extolling the benefits of ‘the big society’. Now, there is a simple Conservative message: ‘Welfare Capped: Immigration Down: Crime down’.

William Hague is the man with a plan to deal with Ukip at next year's European elections. At a fringe event hosted by the Conservatives in the European Parliament group this evening, Hague urged the assembled MEPs to take a tough message to the country, making sure they know what the Tories have done to reform and enhance our relationship with the EU. As James Forsyth suggested in the Spectator last week, the message the Tories need to adopt is part carrot, part stick, to unite the right. The Foreign Secretary seems to have listened to his advice. On the the electoral carrot, Hague suggested a pact was needed with the voters: 'It's only by David Cameron being Prime Minister, not Ed Miliband, that we get a referendum on Europe in the United Kingdom.

Listen! The sound you hear in the damp Tory grassroots as they gather in Manchester for the party conference this weekend is not the noise of a questing vole, but the first, faint squeals of panic as the General Election nears and the cry goes up : 'What on earth are we going to do about Ukip?' Already, commentators of a Cameroon bent have started to scratch their heads and gnaw their knuckles as they contemplate the awful truth: without those lost Ukip votes the Conservative party will not win re-election, yet if Cameron remains as their leader, that support will never be forthcoming.

In YouGov's poll this morning for the Sun the Conservatives had 33 percent support, Labour 40 percent, the Liberal Democrats 9 percent and Ukip 11 percent. While it would be a gross exaggeration to say all of Ukip's support comes from the Conservative party, they do gain a disproportionate amount of support from ex-Tories and it's natural for people to add together that Conservative 33 percent and that Ukip 11 percent and think what might be. The reality though may not be as simple as adding the two together.

One of the most important things about British politics right now is that the left is united and the right is divided. The combination of the Liberal Democrats going into coalition with the Tories and Ed Miliband’s leadership of the Labour party has seen left-wingers who moved from Labour to the Liberal Democrats during the Blair years go back to Labour. At the same time, Ukip has started eating into the Tory core vote. Combine this with constituency boundaries that hugely favour Labour and it becomes evident that Labour can win with nowhere near 40 percent of the vote. If the Tories are to stop this happening, they need to reunite the right: to win back the vast majority of those voters who have moved to Ukip. Doing this is going to take a combination of carrot and stick.