Anthony Wells

We are now in the final week of the referendum campaign and the swing back towards the status quo appears to be in full force. We at YouGov have published two polls this morning, one conducted for ITV's Good Morning Britain between Wednesday and Thursday, and one conducted for the Sunday Times on Thursday and Friday. After the clear leads for Leave that polls were showing a week ago, both of our polls published today show the race coming back to neck-and-neck again: a two point Leave lead in the Good Morning Britain poll, a one point Remain lead in the Sunday Times poll. While there will be speculation about whether this movement is connected to the tragic death of Jo Cox, we do not think that it is.

In YouGov's poll this morning for the Sun the Conservatives had 33 percent support, Labour 40 percent, the Liberal Democrats 9 percent and Ukip 11 percent. While it would be a gross exaggeration to say all of Ukip's support comes from the Conservative party, they do gain a disproportionate amount of support from ex-Tories and it's natural for people to add together that Conservative 33 percent and that Ukip 11 percent and think what might be. The reality though may not be as simple as adding the two together.