Putin

The clock is ticking for Vladimir Putin in Ukraine. He has missed his best chance of victory.

Tick tock. Tick tock. Time is running out in the Ukraine. Time passes and cements the "facts on the ground". Russia controls the Crimea and, one way or another, we should probably expect the province's referendum to endorse a return to Moscow Centre. Whether Crimea's plebiscite can or will be conducted honestly is a different matter but that, in the end, is not the most important issue. Indeed the fate and future of Crimea is, if hardly an irrelevance, a question of secondary importance. It is not the major front in this struggle. Russia's actions in the Crimea are plainly illegal and unjustified but they were supposed to be the catalyst for action elsewhere.

The Spectator: on 150 years of punishing Russia

Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine has left western diplomats scrabbling for sanctions that won’t backfire on to the rest of Europe and America. The foreign secretary William Hague said Russia must 'face consequences and costs'. When a policy paper was photographed that said the UK should not support trade sanctions or close London’s financial centre to Russians, Mr Hague said it did not reflect government policy. But punishing Russia is sure to be an expensive business. Just before the Crimean War, when Russia invaded Turkish Moldovia and Wallachia in 1853, a Spectator editorial took a hard line; Russia should be punished on principle.

Podcast: Ukraine special, with Matthew Parris, Anne Applebaum and John O’Sullivan

Should we leave Ukraine to the Russians? On this week’s View from 22 podcast, Matthew Parris debates Anne Applebaum on whether the crisis should concern Britain and whether Vladimir Putin has valid reasons to intervening in Crimea. Would Putin have acted differently if Ukraine had NATO membership? What should America do now? And will the West’s behaviour so far embolden other dictators? John O’Sullivan also discusses his Spectator cover feature this week on why we shouldn’t be afraid of Putin. With a lack of actions from the West, is it game, set and match to Putin? Why is he perceived to be so strong? Is John Kerry a dying breed of Americans who really care about Europe?

Europe’s ‘new world order’ is letting Vladimir Putin run riot

[audioplayer src="http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/Untitled_2_AAC_audio.mp3" title="John O'Sullivan discusses why we shouldn't be so afraid of Putin" startat=1088] Listen [/audioplayer]If Vladimir Putin’s invasion and occupation of the Crimea brings to an end the Pax Americana and the post-Cold War world that began in 1989, what new European, or even global, order is replacing them? That question may seem topical in the light of Russia’s seemingly smooth overriding in Crimea of the diplomatic treaties and legal rules that outlaw aggression, occupation and annexation. In fact, it is six years behind the times. To understand the situation in the Ukraine, we need to go back to the Nato summit in Bucharest, in April 2008.

Any other business: Britain’s chaotic energy policy puts us in Putin’s hands

To have written last month that the headline ‘Kiev in flames’ looked like a black swan on the economic horizon hardly makes me Nostradamus — but sure enough, the tension between Russia and Ukraine have caused stock markets to quiver and the price of UK gas for one-month delivery on the ICE Europe futures exchange in London to rise 10 per cent on Monday. But it was more impressively far-sighted that way back in the winter of 2005/6 we commissioned a Spectator cover showing wicked Vladimir Putin sitting astride a knotted gas pipeline: one sixth of all gas consumed in Europe arrives from Russia across the Ukraine, and another sixth from Russia by other routes.

Vladimir Putin is losing the battle for Ukraine

[audioplayer src="http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/Untitled_2_AAC_audio.mp3" title="Anne Applebaum and Matthew Parris debate how far we should let Russia push" startat=81] Listen [/audioplayer]It is always tempting, in the field of foreign affairs, to suppose we are led by dupes and fools while our opponents enjoy - or endure -  leaders of boundless cunning. We are over-matched; they are playing three-dimensional chess. We are weak, they are strong. We are easily distracted, they are single-minded. We compromise, they are implacable. It is easy to over-estimate the opposition while under-estimating our own capabilities. Sometimes this has unfortunate consequences. Saddam Hussein, for instance, had to be hiding something.

How America’s shale gas revolution makes Putin ever weaker

[audioplayer src="http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/Untitled_2_AAC_audio.mp3" title="Anne Applebaum and Matthew Parris debate the Ukraine-Russia situation"] Listen [/audioplayer]Once or twice every century something good happens to Russia, but then another long night of suffering closes over the great Asian wastes. In 1917, the Russians managed to overthrow their hated Czar and proclaim a democracy. It only lasted a few months before being swept away by a much worse autocracy, which stayed in power until 1991. The sudden prospect of post-Soviet freedom was accompanied by the promise of long-delayed prosperity, as the liberated nation began to develop its vast resources, one of which was natural gas.

Ten handy phrases for bluffing your way through the Ukraine crisis

First published in 2014, this bluffer's guide may still help you feel like Chatham House's finest at your next dinner party... We're all journalists now, apparently, so when a major foreign policy crisis comes along it is important to be prepared. Everyone must learn the art of winging it as the big news breaks. That's not easy these days. What with Wikipedia on every mobile phone, our understanding of international relations can be called into question at any moment. So here, as a beginner's guide, are ten handy phrases for bluffing your way through a conversation about the situation in Ukraine: 'It's simplistic to think in terms of east versus west in today's global, multi-polar world.

How many people would lay down their lives for the European Union?

Whatever Russia does in the Ukraine, we know that Britain isn’t going to do much more than say ‘dear, dear’, something that was accidentally revealed when a British official was photographed bringing a document to Downing St stating as much. We're not going to help for a number of reasons, one of which is that Ukraine is incredibly complicated and historically and psychologically is sort of a part of Russia, or at least the eastern half is. As for the Crimea, Russia certainly has as much right to that province as the Albanians have to Kosovo. Russia is a great power with legitimate claims to that region, and unlike Iraq, they really do have weapons of mass destruction. So pourquoi mourir pour Donetsk?

The challenge of challenging Putin

How does the West challenge Vladimir Putin? James explained in his blog earlier that it is essential that the Russian president is challenged. But this evening's snap by the ever-watchful Steve Back of a government document stating that the UK 'should not support for now trade sanctions... or close London's financial centre to Russians' shows the difficulty countries including Britain will have in doing that challenging. The UK worries about the impact of sanctions on London, which as the 'capital city of the world', has an interest in keeping its doors open to Russian money. Meanwhile, as a country that relies so much on Russian gas and oil, Germany worries about the impact on its own supplies of any sanctions.

If left unchallenged, Putin will attempt to create a new Russian empire

In Ukraine, the West has played—quite disastrously—into Vladimir Putin's hands. The mistakes go back almost a decade. But the most recent one occurred when protesters took to the streets to oppose the Yanukovych government. The West, by which I mean Nato and the European Union, should have made clear that whatever sympathies they had with the protesters' aims, the right way to change the government was by the ballot box. The failure to do that has provided Putin with the pretext he needed to have Russian forces seize control of Crimea. Putin's motivating factor is his desire to avenge, what he sees as, the humiliation of Russia at the end of the Cold War. A key part of that for him is reasserting Russia's influence in its near-abroad.

Letting Russia into the G8 gave tacit approval to Putinism

Expelling Russia from the G8 is an option being urged on Barack Obama this morning. The logic for admitting Russia in the first place was always tenuous - as Anne Applebaum argued in the Spectator when it last hosted the summit. For sale, the advertisement might read: One very large Russian energy company. Estimated assets, including oil wells, reserves, refineries: $60 billion. Possible liabilities: four major international lawsuits, a part-time CEO who works full-time as President Vladimir Putin’s deputy chief of staff, and a certain — shall we say — lack of clarity about whether the company legally acquired most of those assets at all. I am talking here about Rosneft, the very large Russian energy company whose shares go on sale in London next week.

What exactly should the West do in Ukraine?

I’ve seen and read an awful lot of criticism about how weak and pathetic the West has been in responding to the developing crisis in the Ukraine, but scarcely a single word offering advice as to what it SHOULD do. It may well be that making vague threats about the Sochi G8 Summit and a few muttered threats of economic 'isolation', whatever that is, may fall a little short of say, Operation Barbarossa as a statement of intent. But none of the pundits I have read come close to suggesting that the West should take any form of military action (or 'World War Three', as it used to be known), so given a universal reluctance to go down this route, what left is there for the West to do? So why the derision?

Conservative ministers link Russian aggression to Miliband’s Syria stance

Sajid Javid isn't the only observer of Russia's behaviour over the situation in Ukraine to link Vladimir Putin's aggression to the situation in Syria. Perhaps the West's decision not to intervene in that conflict has given Putin the sense that he can do what he wants without any response from other countries. But Javid's suggestion in a tweet this afternoon that there is a 'direct link between Miliband's cynical vote against Syria motion and Russia's actions on Ukraine. Completely unfit to lead Britain' goes rather further than that. It also doesn't fit particularly comfortably with the fact that 30 of Javid's own Conservative colleagues rebelled on that motion and many more abstained. His colleague Nick Boles has made a similar point: https://twitter.

Putin asks the Russian parliament to approve sending troops to Ukraine

Vladimir Putin’s decision to ask the Russian parliament to approve the deployment of Russian troops to Ukraine makes the situation there even more serious. The request shows that Putin has no intention of heeding Western warning to request the sovereignty of Ukraine. It is also noticeable that the request doesn’t simply cover the Crimea, with its ethnic Russian population, but the whole of Ukraine. It now seems that at the very least this situation will lead towards the de-facto partition of the Ukraine. But the question is whether Putin will be satisfied with this. His ambition has always been to restore Russia’s pride about its place in the world, ‘defeating’ the West in Ukraine would—in Putin’s worldview—do that.

The week that tripled the size of my liver

 Gstaad Walking into a dinner party for 50 chic and some not-so-chic people in a nearby village last week, I was confronted by a tall man with horn-rimmed glasses who called me his neighbour, but then added, ‘No, you’re not my neighbour what’s your name?’ No cunning linguist I, nor used to being barked at by nouveaux-riches whippersnappers, I turned my back on him and told him to ‘look it up in the Almanach de Gotha, asshole!’ He wasn’t best pleased, especially as I also called him a dickhead. Now please don’t think for a moment that I approve of my bad manners.

The Spectator – on 400 years of unease between Ukraine and Russia

Ukraine declared independence from the USSR in 1991, but Moscow has made sure it’s remained heavily involved in Kiev’s affairs ever since. That has been relatively simple. Soon before independence, Anne Applebaum described how Russia’s ruthless annexation of its neighbour had left Ukraine without much identity of its own. 'It took 350 years of Czarist domination, several decades of Stalinist purges, two collectivisation-induced mass famines, two world wars, and the refusal to teach Ukrainian children how to speak Ukrainian, along with the systematic elimination of anyone who might be thought a leader, an intellectual, a capitalist, or even a wealthy peasant. But they did it.

William Hague: Ukraine is not about a strategic competition between East and West and we must engage with Russia

Russia has been presented as one of the bad guys in the coverage of the turmoil in Ukraine. But today, Sir Menzies Campbell told the Commons that the one thing that linked the three countries mentioned in William Hague's urgent statement on Ukraine, Syria and Iran was that 'progress, however limited, was made as a result of engagement with Russia'. Hague's reply made clear that bad guy or not, the UK needs to continue engaging with Russia: 'This is a very important point and again this is why the Prime Minister spoke to President Putin on Friday, why I have spoken to Foreign Minister Lavrov today, and agreed to speak again in the near future.

Ukraine’s turmoil highlights Vladimir Putin’s battle lines

After two decades in the economic basket, Russia is decisively back as an ideological force in the world — this time as a champion of conservative values. In his annual state of the nation speech to Russia’s parliament in December, Vladimir Putin assured conservatives around the world that Russia was ready and willing to stand up for ‘family values’ against a tide of liberal, western, pro-gay propaganda ‘that asks us to accept without question the equality of good and evil’. Russia, he promised, will ‘defend traditional values that have made up the spiritual and moral foundation of civilisation in every nation for thousands of years’.

Any other business: The friends of Putin taking home gold from the Sochi Olympics

Imagine if the BBC’s excitable commentators had been asked to cover the building of Sochi’s facilities, rather than the Winter Olympics themselves. ‘Yeesss!!’ Ed Leigh might have yelled, ‘That’s the 21st construction contract for the big lad from St Petersburg, Arkady Rotenberg. Seven point four billion dollars’ worth, a new Olympic record — more than the entire cost of the 2010 Vancouver Games! How cool is that for the 62-year-old who was Vladimir Putin’s boyhood judo partner? Up next, the $9.