Labour party

Thursday

James Forsyth

The Tories’ campaign is sharpening up

As declaration day (the rather pompus name that news organisations have come up with for the moment when Gordon Brown actually calls the election) draws nearer, the Tory campaign is sharpening up. This morning’s operation on National Insurance was impressive, enabling the party to get a second set of headlines out of its plan to stop Labour’s National Insurance rise. The letter from 23 business leaders supporting the Tory position worked on several levels. First, it got the Tories’ tax cut back on the top of the news agenda along with its clear message: seven out of ten workers will be better off under the Conservatives. Second, it strengthened the

David Blackburn

A morning of to-and-fro

Who’s in the ascendant this morning? As Pete noted earlier, David Cameron’s barnstorming morning stalled on the Today programme when pressed to cost his National Insurance tax cut. The government went to it press conference scenting blood – understandably vague Tory tax pledges can be easily represented as indicative of general incoherence. Mandelson was in political warlord mode, flanked by Liam Byrne and Alistair Darling, his unlikely musclemen. But they blew it. First, Byrne and Mandelson asserted, with absolute certainty, that the Tories will raise VAT. Opaque pledges cannot be successfully criticised by baseless soothsayings. Alistair Darling then compounded the error by suggesting that the Tories were too incompetent to

Peter Hoskin

Cameron defends his spending cuts – and suggests there won’t be more before the election

Want some more David Cameron?  Well, the Tories are happy to oblige.  After their party leader’s speech yesterday, he is interviewed in the FT and appeared on the Today programme earlier.  The FT interview was certainly the more comfortable of the two.  In it, Cameron stikes a confident note – saying that his party have “come a long way,” and that “people are gagging for change”.  And he stresses that he thinks – and, apparently, Ken Clarke thinks – that George Osborne is “the right person” to be Chancellor. But Cameron had a tougher time in his Today Programme interview.  It started well, with Today highlighting the supportive letter that

Wednesday

Ed Howker

Mandelson finally gets his man

For months now Lord Mandelson has been encouraging his friend and former colleague Tristram Hunt to continue the quest for a safe Labour seat. Indeed, there was a furore last month when Labour supporters in the Leyton and Wanstead constituency – a Labour stronghold – objected to the support Hunt was receiving from Downing Street in his bid for that candidature. At the time, the Standard ran quotes from a local member stating bluntly: “We do not want a No 10 candidate being pushed on the constituency.”   Duly, the candidature was given to John Cryer and not another word was mentioned. Until this Monday that is, when the FT

Fraser Nelson

A new Brownie Buster

Michael Scholar: hero. The newish head of the UK statistics authority is finally coming to the aid of the statistics nerds who have been protesting that Gordon Brown makes things up. Normally, the ONS do not censure Mr Brown when he misrepresents their data: that’s not their job. But as head of the Statistics Authority, Sir Michael has – wonderfully, inspirationally – written an open letter to the Prime Minister telling him not to lie. Well, not quite in so few words, but this is the plain implication. What is significant is that Sir Michael is using his job to protect  the integrity of statistics in Britain. One of my

David Blackburn

Whitehall’s hung parliament contingency plans vindicate Tory alarm over the economy

There it is. The Tories’ premier weapon emblazoned across the front pages of the Guardian and the Telegraph: Brown could stay on as PM in a hung parliament, even if the Tories win more seats. To be fair to Brown, the headlines are misleading. It is his duty to remain in office until it is clear that David Cameron or another politician commands the confidence of the House, which may take weeks in current circumstances. Mandarins are drawing up radical contingency plans to ensure that some modicum of economic stability is maintained during that period. These measures include temporarily proroguing parliament for 18 days after the election (rather than the

Tuesday

Fraser Nelson

Why Blair’s return is good news for the Tories

Blair’s return will be worth a good 2-3 points to the Tory lead. Like Mandelson, he can dazzle journalists who admire his tradecraft. Like Mandelson, he is loathed by the public who see a snake oil salesman. Blair mis-sold the country a project in 1997, and delivered none of what he promised (and it was with those broken 1997 problems in mind that the News of the World backed the Conservatives last weekend). He is not very popular now. When he gave evidence to the Chilcott Inquiry, the crowds came from near and far to denounce him. One placard, which I found outside my office, said “Blair is a war

James Forsyth

The Lib Dems attack Labservatism

In this post-expenses election, there is going to be a considerable vote going for the none of the above party. The Lib Dems are clearly determined to try and tap into this vote. At PMQs in recent weeks, Nick Clegg has constantly sought to attack Labour and the Tories as different sides of the same coin. Last night in his closing statement, Vince Cable accused Labour of being ‘in hock’ to militant unions and the Tories to millionaires with their snouts in the trough. The message their trying to get across is clear: they’re both as bad as each other. Now, the Lib Dems have launched quite an effective site

Peter Hoskin

Guess who’s back

Yep, you guessed right: Tony Blair was doing his bit for the Labour cause this morning, with a speech in his old constituency.  In truth, there was little in it of any note – or that we haven’t heard countless times from his successor.  Thus the Tories were derided as either the “old Tory party,” or as confused about their direction of travel.  Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling were hailed as the men who brought us through the worst of the economic storm.  And even the soundbites (“meeting not just future challenges, but seizing future opportunities”) sounded as if they had come from straight from the Brownite copybook.  Perhaps the

David Blackburn

Is David Davis talking off-message?

James Macintyre asked yesterday, in response to a speech Davis made at the Bristol Chambers of Commerce. The question should enter John Rentoul’s entertaining list of questions to which the answer is No. Macintyre takes Davis’ comments out of context: ‘First, he [Davis] praises the post-war Labour Prime Minister Clement Atlee, who is credited with creating the NHS and the Welfare State, and effectively compares him to Margaret Thatcher: “Attlee created the modern Welfare State at a time when the country was bankrupt after the war. Mrs Thatcher transformed the country after 1979 when it was at its lowest ebb.”’ What Davis actually said was: “When times are tough, that

Peter Hoskin

Labour have moved on from the death tax for now – and so should the Tories

Labour’s plans for a national care service aren’t looking too sharp this morning.  Andy Burnham is expected to announce a cap on residential costs for the elderly later today – to be funded by freezing inheritance tax bands, raising the statutory retirement age, and (lo!) efficiency savings.  But the full, free-for-everyone-at-the-point-of-use service will have to wait some time – or at least until a new independent commission has decided on how it can be funded in the long-term.  In other words, the government has decided to park the death tax issue until well after the election. Presentationally speaking, this is proving difficult for the government.  I mean, just rewind to

Fraser Nelson

Osborne’s silent victory

I think Osborne’s main victory tonight would be to reassure those who thought him a clueless idiot. The left demonise him, and it’s easy for the right to despair at him too (yes, guilty). But the figure we saw tonight was calm, collected and assured – and I reckon this was his achievement. He allayed fears. Expectations of his performance would have been rock bottom, and he’d have surpassed them easily. He was playing it safe. Vince Cable did his after-dinner speaking comedy act (I met William Hague in the ‘spin room’ afterwards, who swears that some of Cables lines were nicked from his repertoire), and the studio audience loved

Peter Hoskin

Tory poll lead widens further

I’ll spare you the nitty-gritty, but suffice to say that three separate polls tonight record growing leads for the Tories – of 7, 7 and 10 points, respectively.  One of the 7-point leads is from the YouGov Daily Tracker, which has been hovering around the 4 point mark for the past few weeks.  You could argue that we’re still operating more or less within the margin of error.  That’s true.  But throw in the polls from the weekend, and you’d be hard-pressed not to conclude that the tide is turning, at least momentarily, in Cameron & Co.’s favour.  Either way, Tory folk around Westminster certainly seem more relaxed than they

Monday

Peter Hoskin

Few fireworks – but solid performances from Cable and Osborne<br />

So now we know what happens when you put three would-be finance ministers into a room, and start asking them questions.  There’s plenty of esoteric language, a good dash of posturing – and next to no fireworks.  Thinking about it, perhaps we shouldn’t have expected much else. Not that the pyrotechnics were completely absent, of course.  Both Cable and Darling rounded on Osborne over the Tories’ national insurance plans, and Osborne hit back with some well-directed attacks on Labour’s own tax and spend agenda – even getting Darling to waver and admit that a “death tax” is no longer on the cards.   But, for the most part, calm and

Peter Hoskin

Chancellor’s debate: live blog

2057, PH: We’ll sign off for now. I’ll be back with a summary post shortly. 2057, JF: Osborne gets his closing statement just right, sounding humble and emphasising this is the voter’s choice. I expect Osborne will be very satsified with his night’s work. 2055, PH: And Osborne has the closing word.  He’s not quite as direct as Cable – saying that the Lib Dems won’t be in government, and that the Tories have “shown, under the leadership of David Cameron” that they’ve got what it takes – but its a neat enough closer. 2054. PH: Punchy stuff from Cable, who says that you can’t trust Labour because they got

James Forsyth

Brown and Cameron’s Commons clash serves as the warm-up for tonight’s debate

Gordon Brown and David Cameron have just been facing each other in the Commons chamber. Brown was notionally reporting back on the European summit meeting, but in relaity Brown and Cameron were setting the stage for the Chancellor’s debate tonight. Cameron claimed that there was a new dividing line in British politics, the Tories for ‘efficency and aspiration’ and Labour for ‘waste and taxes.’ Brown claimed that the Tories were indulging in panic measures and that their plans announced today would ‘withdraw the support that is necessary for the economy to have a sustained recovery.’ Brown might have some Keynesian economists on his side when he says this. But it

David Blackburn

How long will it take Gordon Brown to act on this?

Defence minister Kevan Jones was extremely foolish to re-open the Gurkhas’ residency issue at the electoral cycle’s eleventh hour. Accusing Joanna Lumley of maintaining a “deathly silence” over the campaign was a temptation too many for fate.   She’s silent no longer. She convened a press conference and immediately gained the moral, and strategic, high-ground, saying: “(There is) a sense of regret that it has come to this, almost clearing our name in public. “We want to call on the prime minister to confirm that the policy is one that he still completely supports, to affirm from the prime minister that the MoD is still behind what it said it

Fraser Nelson

Back to his Tory best

George Osborne has just set the scene for tonight’s Chancellors’ debate by announcing something neither Darling or Cable will be able to match: a tax cut. It’s a real one, it will benefit some 20m workers and (best of all) it will be paid for by spending cuts. While the amount is not huge – everyone on under £43,000 will be £150 better off – it indicates the route the Conservatives would go down in government.   Trusting people with their own money, and stoking the recovery by cutting the tax on jobs. Here are the main points: 1) Osborne would raise National Insurance threshold in Apr11. One of the

Peter Hoskin

A smart move by Osborne – but he needs to ready himself for his opponents’ attacks

There’s little doubting it: the Tory plan to (at least partially) reverse Labour’s national insurance hike has handed George Osborne a high-calibre weapon for tonight’s TV debate.  It is, I suspect, an attractive and attention-grapping policy in itself.  But it also helps the shadow Chancellor paint the Tories as the party of aspiration.  Or, as Tim Montgomerie has put it: “Seven out of ten working people will be better off if Cameron becomes Prime Minister.” But announcing the policy this morning has also given Alistair Darling and Vince Cable a chance to very publicly denounce it later today.  We’ve already had a preview of what’s likely to form the central