Labour party

Today’s conclusion from the British Election Study that Ukip will hurt the Tories far more than it will damage Labour at the General Election is unsurprising, but still important as its warning that the Conservative party could lose nearly two million voters to Nigel Farage’s party underlines the need for the Tories to find a decent solution to Ukip. Thus far the Tories have tended to capitulate to Ukip on policies, with Nigel Farage becoming a think tank for policy development by applying pressure on nervous MPs who eventually secure concessions from David Cameron in the form of policies he didn’t really want to announce.

Most people went into Work and Pensions Questions expecting Iain Duncan Smith to be in a tetchy fame of mind following this morning’s report on food banks. As a matter of fact, the Work and Pensions Secretary was very, very keen to tell us as often as he possibly could how ‘seriously’ he was taking that report. And the Opposition, which claims to care a lot more about these matters, completely failed to make productive use of its time grilling him. Some Tory ministers were worried that an impending Labour reshuffle at some point this term might see Rachel Reeves moved on to their patch, as she’s deemed very good in the Chamber.

A lot of political types are very cross with the ‘biased media’ today. Ukip is currently the most aerated because some journalists ‘fabricated’ (which is today synonymous with ‘transcribed’) some remarks Nigel Farage made about whether or not restaurants are right to tell women to put napkins over themselves when breastfeeding. Number 10 is very angry with the BBC’s Norman Smith because he talked about the Road to Wigan Pier which is not an OK way of describing the public spending cuts still to come (but the IFS describing them as ‘grotesque’ and ‘colossal’ apparently is). Labour has been annoyed for months that journalists keep pointing out mistakes that Ed Miliband makes.

Labour has had a poor run of Autumn Statement and Budget responses for a couple of years now, and with only today’s statement and the 2015 Budget to go before the General Election, the stakes were pretty high for Ed Balls. The Tories had clearly turned up expecting him to do a terrible job, and their heckling club (which you can read more about here) was out in force. The Shadow Chancellor stood up to a wall of noise. Tory backbenchers had arranged a number of words to shout at him before entering the Chamber. I understand that one of them was ‘apologise’, which they’ve used before on Balls. It was so bad that Speaker Bercow had to tell them off before the frontbencher had even started speaking.

Is it acceptable for writers to sport their political allegiances publicly? In more sensible times you'd hardly need to consider the question since its answer would ordinarily be so bleedin' obvious. These, of course, are neither sensible nor ordinary times. So it is with the fauxtroversy over whether or not it is acceptable - or, worse, appropriate - for Liz Lochhead to have joined the SNP.  This is a real thing, it seems and yet another example of how politics corrupts most things it touches. Lochhead, you see, is not just a poet she is Scotland's Makar (or poet laureate) and therefore, god help us, it's all very different. For some reason.

Tonight Gordon Brown announced he will stand down as an MP at the next election. Current political leaders have been paying tribute, with Ed Miliband calling his old boss a 'towering figure', while David Cameron said he was 'someone dedicated to public service and has worked very hard for other people'. Even those who worked with Brown accept in their tributes to their former boss that he wasn't perfect, while pointing out the good they felt he did in his long spell in frontline politics. So what were Brown's good and bad bits? Spectator editor Fraser Nelson and our political editor James Forsyth pick one of each: Fraser Nelson Good: He tested to destruction the idea that more money is the remedy for bad public services. Thanks to him, no one will make that mistake again.

Ukip are desperate to build on the momentum from their Rochester win as the general election looms ever closer. At the very top of the party figures including leader Nigel Farage and Deputy Chairman Suzanne Evans have made no secret of the fact that they’d like their next major defector to come from Labour. So, are Ukip going to succeed in wooing over a Labourite, and if so, who? Former Cabinet member Kate Hoey has the right Eurosceptic credentials for Ukip, although her Vauxhall constituency doesn’t lend itself to joining the purple ‘people’s army’, given Ukip’s weakness in London. I got in touch with her office and Hoey replied saying ‘I am not prepared to waste any time on this’. Hardly the categorical denial her whips would like.

Fight! Two senior Labour MPs locked horns yesterday over the Scottish leadership contest. Ivan Lewis and Tom Watson scrapped after the latter wrote a piece endorsing left-leaning Neil Findlay for the leadership. Lewis tweeted shortly after Watson promoted his piece that ‘it’s essential that Scots decide best person to be leader of Scottish Labour. Others interfering not in the interests of the Labour Party’. Watson took this as it was clearly meant and dived straight in with a retort: ‘Presumably you’d rather they quietly elect your candidate whilst we all watch. Plus ça change.’ This is ostensibly a debate between the two men about rival candidates in the contest for Scottish Labour leader. But it’s also about a great deal more.

This was meant to be the weekend when Ed Miliband got some ‘breathing space’, a chance to recover after the last torrid few weeks. But his—and his party’s—troubles are still all over the papers today. The Tories defeat in Rochester has not moved the spotlight on to Cameron and his difficulties in the way that Labour hoped it would.   Now, this is largely because of that Tweet. Emily Thornberry has succeed in uniting Miliband critics and loyalists alike in anger at her stupidity. But, as I report in the Mail on Sunday, many of Miliband’s longest standing political allies feel that the Labour machine has grossly mishandled the issue.

What’s the most significant political story of the week, Ukip winning Rochester or Emily Thornberry’s resignation? Well, I suspect, it might be neither of them and that the really big event this week happened north of the border, Nicola Sturgeon being sworn in as First Minister. For the new SNP leader is riding a quite remarkable wave of popularity. Right now, she’s addressing a rally at the Glasgow Hydro, a 12,000 seat venue that she sold out faster than Kylie Minogue—what other politician in Britain could hope to do that?   As I say in the column this week, what makes Sturgeon’s popularity all the more remarkable is that she is a career politician.

Ukip's victory in Rochester has lead to the inevitable question of 'what next?' for the party. Now that Nigel Farage has two representatives in the House of Commons, his main answer is shockingly more MPs. Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless came from the Conservative Party, but there has been much chatter in Westminster about the possibility of a Labour defector. Frank Field and Austin Mitchell are just two of the names that are mentioned. Farage added credence to these rumours by acknowledging he has been in touch with a 'few' Labour people. Speaking to reporters in Rochester this morning, the Ukip leader said: 'I would love a Labour defector because that would reinforce the message as to why we won this by-election yesterday.

Just a few hours ago, Labour's Emily Thornberry was protesting that she had no idea why anyone would take offence at her Tweeting a picture of a Rochester house with three St George flags and a white van. Now, the tweet has ended her front bench career - she has had to resign as Shadow Attonery General Emily Thornberry. Just why was Ed Milband so sensitive? And what will be the fallout of Ukip taking Rochester? James Forsyth, Isabel Hardman and myself discuss this in a podcast special.