Labour party

Friday

Isabel Hardman

Why Labour unrest is getting so much attention

Labour types are in an aggressive mood this morning. Why are the newspapers and the BBC setting such store by just two MPs who apparently want their leader gone when the Tory party has around ten times that number of committed malcontents, they grumble? Peter Hain was particularly defensive this morning, suggesting that all Ed Miliband's supposed woes are actually part of a plot by the Daily Mail. First, here's an attempt to explain the media excitement about the threat to Miliband.

Thursday

Isabel Hardman

How serious is the threat to Ed Miliband?

There are apparently two Labour MPs who have called for Ed Miliband to step aside. That just two from Ed Miliband's party are openly moving against him while some estimates put the number of letters calling for a vote of no confidence in David Cameron at 22 shows the difference in personality and practice between the two parties. Labour is markedly unhappier than the Tories (who don't resemble sunbeams themselves at present), and Ed Miliband polls below his party, while the opposite is true for David Cameron. Labour is not a party that manages to pull off pre-election regicide that effectively. For the past few years in opposition, it hasn't even been a party where open dissent is that common.

Rod Liddle

Ukip is a party for people who hate London. That’s why Labour should be scared

It is interesting that neither Scotland nor Wales have been much bitten by the Ukip bug. The supposedly sensible view is that both of these countries are more kindly disposed towards the European Union than are the English — and that Ukip’s contempt for the European Parliament and its politicians is seen as another example of that rather too familiar English jingoism and xenophobia, commodities which are not terribly popular either north of Berwick or west of Monmouth. It is also sometimes mentioned that immigration is far less of an issue in Wales and Scotland — unless we are talking about English immigration, which does indeed tend to make the Jocks and the Taffs reach for their tins of paraffin from time to time. Well, sure.

Wednesday

Isabel Hardman

Miliband promotes allies in post-Murphy Shadow Cabinet reshuffle

The post-Jim Murphy Labour reshuffle has arrived, and while it's not particularly seismic, it still tells us some interesting things about Ed Miliband's thinking. The Labour leader has replaced the former Shadow International Development Secretary with Mary Creagh, which means it can't be described as a consolation prize (something development campaigners were wary of as they'd rather someone who wanted the job, thank you). Creagh has a reputation in her party for being formidably well-briefed (although she managed to disappoint regional newspapers recently), and was particularly impressive in her last role but one as Shadow Environment Secretary when the horse meat scandal broke.

Lloyd Evans

PMQs sketch: No poppy for Harman, Miliband on the attack, Cameron in transcendental-parrot mode

Was that a pop at Hattie? Ed Miliband began PMQs by evoking the centenary of the Great War. ‘We will all be wearing our poppies with particular pride this year,’ he said. And every eye ran along Labour’s front bench to count off the crimson blooms. Balls, poppy. Miliband poppy. Harman, poppy. No, wait. As you were. Harman, no poppy! Her chic, double-breasted grey jacket bore no tribute to the fallen. But I expect it’s a CND thing. All the same, Miliband should send her out to buy one. Tuppence ought to do it. The Labour leader needed a win today. Badly. His poll ratings have dipped to the same level as Gordon Brown’s in 2010, but at least Brown had the excuse of being in a fag-end administration led by a scowling narcissistic tax-junkie.

James Forsyth

Miliband corners Cameron on immigration at listless PMQs

The Commons has a rather listless feel to it at the moment. Today’s PMQs will not live long in the memory. Ed Miliband’s strategy was to get David Cameron to say as often as possible that he wants to stay in the EU, with the hope that this would drive a wedge between Cameron and his backbenchers. This tactic was, as far as it went, quite effective. Cameron repeatedly said that he wanted to stay in a reformed EU, and wasn’t prepared to say explicitly that he would be prepared to campaign for an exit if he didn’t get what he wanted out of the renegotiation.

Isabel Hardman

Tories to lose nine seats to Labour in latest Ashcroft poll

Lord Ashcroft's polls are, as a rule, very rarely good news for the Tories these days - the peer clearly hopes that he's at least warned the party before it goes over the top - and his latest tranche of surveys in marginal seats proves that rule. The peer examined 12 marginal seats where the Conservatives lead Labour with majorities as low as 1,936 and as high as 3,744. Here's what you need to know: 1. Across the 12 seats, Labour led the Tories by 36 per cent to 33 per cent, with just three seats remaining with the Tories: Loughborough (Nicky Morgan), Kingswood (Chris Skidmore) and Blackpool North & Cleveleys (Paul Maynard). But the Labour leads are very slim. The biggest was a 9 per cent lead on a 7 per cent swing in Bury North. 2.

Tuesday

Philip Cowley

Don’t believe in tribal politics? Take a look at how people respond to Downing Street’s cats

One important staffing decision David Cameron took early in his premiership was to fill the post of Chief Mouser, which had been vacant since the demise of its previous occupant, Sybil, at the height of the global financial crisis. Defying their party’s commitment to lean government, the Conservatives made two appointments: Larry and Freya. These cats are the latest in a long line of Downing Street felines, stretching back at least to Churchill’s time in office.

Douglas Murray

‘Swamped’ much? David Blunkett 2014, meet David Blunkett 2002

[audioplayer src="http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/TheViewFrom22_23_Oct_2014_v4.mp3" title="Mats Persson and Matthew Elliott join James Forsyth to discuss Europe and migration."] Listen [/audioplayer] Last week saw an example of the cynicism, not to mention circularity, of our immigration debate that is too important to miss. The former home secretary, David Blunkett, took to the pages of the Daily Mail to support the current defence secretary, Michael Fallon. Mr Fallon, readers will recall, had just been caught in an interview using the ‘swamped’ word to refer to the historically unprecedented levels of immigration that have affected much of Britain in recent years.

Saturday

Steerpike

Caption Ed Miliband and see Alex Salmond’s face in the Halloween pumpkins

Even the po-faced Associated Press (video above) couldn't but describe as 'toe-curling' Ed Miliband's encounter with a homeless hijabi. Pundits agree that Ed appeared 'terrified' of the beggar in Manchester. Mr S was there, however - on unrelated business, of course - and can confirm that the opposition leader really did only have 2p in his pocket at the time. (Why on earth would he carry more?) Your correspondent was otherwise engaged, however (in discussion with my equine consultant) in the moment this photo was snapped: [caption id="attachment_8909992" align="alignnone" width="506"] Manchester, 31 October 2014 (Photo: Nigel Roddis/Getty)[/caption] What could have been on his mind?

James Forsyth

Alex Salmond shows how the SNP will fight Labour in 2015

Talk to senior Labour figures about the polls that show them losing 30 or more seats in Scotland, and they say two things. The first is that these polls have been taken at the worst possible moment for them, just after the bitter resignation of the Scottish Labour leader. The second is that when it comes to a UK general election, Scottish voters will—however reluctantly—accept that it is a choice between Labour and the Tories.   But the aftermath of the referendum means that this second point will not apply as strongly as usual. Having campaigned together against independence, Labour and the Tories do not look as dramatically different as they used to in Scotland.

Friday

Isabel Hardman

Labour wins South Yorkshire PCC by-election

Labour has won the South Yorkshire Police and Crime Commissioner by-election with 50 per cent of the vote, which is a tremendous relief for the party given the circumstances in which this contest was held. It avoided the contest moving to second preferences by 0.02 per cent, but it has won in every local authority area, including Rotherham, where it beat Ukip by 800 votes. That the party whose PCC stood down over the Rotherham grooming scandal has managed to win a by-election to replace him now raises questions for Ukip. Neither side had called this election, but Ukip did have a very good chance indeed, given the circumstances. They do not have the consolation prize of winning in certain local authority areas such as Rotherham and Doncaster, which they had hoped for.

Thursday

Steerpike

Jim Murphy – is Scottish Labour dyeing?

While watching Scottish Labour leader frontrunner Jim Murphy launch his campaign today, you might be forgiven for thinking the teetotaller has been hitting the bottle. The bottle of hair dye, that is. There is a noticeable change in tone from when Murphy was a minister in the last Labour government. Mr S doubts that will be the only thing the former right-wing Blairite will be lightening in the coming weeks too.

James Forsyth

Scottish Labour is in crisis; is Jim Murphy the solution?

I suspect that the Scottish Labour gala dinner in Glasgow tonight won’t feel like much of a gala. The Scottish Labour party is in crisis: its leader has quit attacking the UK Labour party for treating it like a ‘branch office’ and now an Ipsos-Mori Westminster voting intention poll has the SNP on 52 per cent to Labour’s 23 per cent. This poll is a reminder of the scale of the challenge facing whoever is the new leader of the Scottish Labour party. I argue in the magazine this week  that Jim Murphy is, by a distance, the best candidate for the job. He has what Scottish Labour so desperately needs right now: energy, no fear of the SNP and its agenda and the ability to win elections. But Murphy’s victory is, by no means, a done deal.

Alex Massie

Boom! Bombshell poll annihilates Labour in Scotland

Grotesque. Unbelievable. Bizarre. Unprecedented. Today's Ipsos-Mori opinion poll is the most astonishing survey of Scottish political opinion in living memory. Perhaps, even, the most remarkable survey of all time. It is, of course, a snapshot not a prediction. The actual election will not produce anything like these numbers. I don't believe the SNP will win 52% of the Scottish vote in May. I don't believe the Labour party will take 23% of votes. And I don't actually believe the Conservatives will only be supported by 10% of voters. Still, there is something happening in Scotland right now. The electorate is volatile. Just a month ago Survation reported Labour's support (amongst decided voters) at 39% and the SNP on 35%.

Isabel Hardman

Meltdown! Shock poll puts Scottish Labour on 4 MPs and the SNP on 54

Just to make Scottish Labour's misery complete - and underline the case for a bold leader who likes winning things - STV have published a poll by Ipsos Mori putting Ed Miliband's party on just 23 per cent, which would see them losing all but four of their Scottish MPs, against 52 per cent support for the SNP, which would get 54 Westminster seats. The question was how would those surveyed vote if there were a general election tomorrow. The Scottish Conservatives would lose their one seat, with 10 per cent of the vote, the Lib Dems would retain one with 6 per cent, while the Greens polled 6 per cent, Ukip 2 per cent and others 1 per cent.

Wednesday

Isabel Hardman

Jim Murphy to stand for Scottish Labour leader

As expected, Jim Murphy has announced he's standing for Scottish Labour Leader. He's given an interview to the Daily Record in which he says he wants to stop 'the Scottish Labour Party from committing self harm': 'I think it is time for a fresh start for the Scottish Labour party,” he said. “I am proud of Labour Party and I am proud of Scotland - but I am not satisfied. 'I want to strike a tone that stops the Scottish Labour Party from committing self harm. I want to unite the Labour Party but more importantly I want to bring the country back together after the referendum. 'I am not going to shout at or about the SNP, I am going to talk to and listen to Scotland and I am very clear that the job I am applying for is to be the First Minister of Scotland.

Tuesday

Isabel Hardman

Who’s playing dirty politics on Lord Freud and welfare? Everyone

The main business of the day in the House of Commons is Labour's debate on Lord Freud, a row that blew up nearly a fortnight ago. The party's motion, entitled 'Parliamentary Under-Secretary for Welfare Reform and disabled people', finishes with '. . . this House has no confidence in the Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Welfare Reform; and calls on the Prime Minister to dismiss him.' It's not a wise move to put any money on David Cameron meeting this demand, given that Freud apologised on the same day his comments about disabled people and the minimum wage were raised at Prime Minister's Questions. Unless you've got a lot of time on your hands, it might not be wise to sit through the entire debate, both sides of which can be summarised in these three points: 1.