Labour party

Grotesque. Unbelievable. Bizarre. Unprecedented. Today's Ipsos-Mori opinion poll is the most astonishing survey of Scottish political opinion in living memory. Perhaps, even, the most remarkable survey of all time. It is, of course, a snapshot not a prediction. The actual election will not produce anything like these numbers. I don't believe the SNP will win 52% of the Scottish vote in May. I don't believe the Labour party will take 23% of votes. And I don't actually believe the Conservatives will only be supported by 10% of voters. Still, there is something happening in Scotland right now. The electorate is volatile. Just a month ago Survation reported Labour's support (amongst decided voters) at 39% and the SNP on 35%.

As expected, Jim Murphy has announced he's standing for Scottish Labour Leader. He's given an interview to the Daily Record in which he says he wants to stop 'the Scottish Labour Party from committing self harm': 'I think it is time for a fresh start for the Scottish Labour party,” he said. “I am proud of Labour Party and I am proud of Scotland - but I am not satisfied. 'I want to strike a tone that stops the Scottish Labour Party from committing self harm. I want to unite the Labour Party but more importantly I want to bring the country back together after the referendum. 'I am not going to shout at or about the SNP, I am going to talk to and listen to Scotland and I am very clear that the job I am applying for is to be the First Minister of Scotland.

The main business of the day in the House of Commons is Labour's debate on Lord Freud, a row that blew up nearly a fortnight ago. The party's motion, entitled 'Parliamentary Under-Secretary for Welfare Reform and disabled people', finishes with '. . . this House has no confidence in the Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Welfare Reform; and calls on the Prime Minister to dismiss him.' It's not a wise move to put any money on David Cameron meeting this demand, given that Freud apologised on the same day his comments about disabled people and the minimum wage were raised at Prime Minister's Questions. Unless you've got a lot of time on your hands, it might not be wise to sit through the entire debate, both sides of which can be summarised in these three points: 1.

At the risk of intruding into someone else's calamity, if you can't enjoy this what can you enjoy? By this I mean, of course, Scottish Labour's meltdown. (Suggestions the party is not actually an iced lollipop should not be taken too seriously.) The thing to remember about Labour in Scotland is they've never been as popular as they like to think. They've only ever been the largest minority. A large and zombified minority, to be sure, but a minority nonetheless. They never - ever - spoke for a majority of Scots. They only claimed to. They still do. That's the astonishing thing. They are the people's army, the political will of the Scottish people made flesh. And how dare anyone else suggest otherwise. Inconveniently, a fair few folk have dared make just that suggestion. The bastards.

Johann Lamont and Tony Blair don’t have much in common. But they are both causing Ed Miliband trouble this morning.   I suspect that those close to Miliband are relieved that Lamont has quit as the leader of the Scottish Labour party; his statement on her resignation last night was barely lukewarm. Certainly, the Miliband circle didn’t hold her in high regard and became despairing of her abilities during the referendum campaign. But what they won’t like is how she has taken a swing at them on the way out. She has lambasted Miliband’s office for treating Scottish Labour as ‘a branch office of a party based in London.’ These words will sting and be thrown back at Labour by the Scottish Nationalists at every opportunity.

It didn’t work. But it was a good idea. David Cameron prepared an ambush for Ed Miliband at PMQs today. The trouble was he attacked the Labour leader for a vice he himself has mastered with conspicuous aplomb: question dodging. Miliband is clearly in trouble. He’s using his only remaining strength, the NHS, to prop up his burgeoning weaknesses. Expect this to continue till next May. There’s always a calamity somewhere in the NHS and for Miliband, ill tidings are like gold dust. He painted a picture of a basket-case health system that would have shamed a failed state in the Middle Ages. Cameron, he said, wasted billions on a massive inter-departmental rejig when he came to power.

The ‘windfall tax’, a concept introduced in the UK by the Blair government, is by definition a one-off seizure of revenue from a profitable industry, to fund an invariably unprofitable but popular project. It has been justified as putting ‘right a bad deal’ on the excesses of profits of unpopular industries. Between 1997 and 1998, Gordon Brown raised £5 billion from privatised utility companies to fund the Welfare-to-Work Programme. Today we have face another well-intentioned policy initiative, of ensuring every NHS patient is guaranteed a cancer test within 7 days, supposedly to be funded by a windfall tax on tobacco companies.

When I first learned about Athenian democracy as a teenager I was baffled that they could have decided government positions by lottery; what was to stop someone totally unsuitable and useless from ending up in control? But then I look at the current Labour front bench and think, how bad could it be? I'm thinking in particular of Shadow Leader of the House Angela Eagle, whose performance on Question Time last night was a perfect illustration of how low the tone of so much political debate is – especially that involving manufactured outrage. The outrage in question was over Lord Freud's comments about the disabled and the minimum wage, which Labour cooked up in an attempt to make their opponents look like the nasty party.

[audioplayer src="http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/TheViewFrom22_16_Oct_2014_v4.mp3" title="Lord Pearson and Damian Green join Lara Prendergast on this week's podcast to discuss Ukip and the Tories." startat=79.5] Listen [/audioplayer] What result at the next election would most suit Ukip? There is little doubt that the party would most benefit from a Labour victory in 2015, which I discussed in my Spectator column this week. In brief, Labour victory would mean: 1. No EU referendum and more EU immigration. Ed Miliband has taken a strong stance against an In/Out referendum despite pressure from inside his shadow Cabinet to agree to one. He is unlikely to change his mind on this if he became Prime Minister.

Markets are amoral. If a severely disabled person cannot produce more than the minimum wage’s worth of work, no employer will be able to profitably employ them. Some generous ones might do so at a loss, but we cannot assume that there will be enough of them. Many severely disabled people who would like to work thus cannot do so. Lord Freud, a businessman turned welfare advisor to Tony Blair turned Tory minister, made this point at a fringe event at the recent Tory conference. He suggested that we could allow firms to employ severely disabled people at below the minimum wage. He also said we should use something like the Universal Credit financial-support scheme to make up the difference – although this has been much less widely reported.