Europe

In normal times, the government clears the decks ahead of the Queen’s Speech. It wants to ensure maximum publicity for its legislative agenda. But these are not normal times: there’s an EU referendum campaign raging. Number 10 are being quite clear, as I write in The Sun today, that with less than six weeks to go to polling day, there won’t be a campaign ceasefire this week. ‘It is too close now’ one senior source tells me. So, why is the Queen’s Speech taking place at all? One IN supporting Minister complains that it is ‘moronic’ to be having it now, as it means that the measures announced it are likely to get caught up in the referendum cross fire.

Is the Brexit campaign 'morphing into Ukip'? That's what Sir John Major will say he fears is happening later. In a speech at Oxford University, he'll argue that those calling for Britain to leave the EU are 'fuelling prejudice on immigration'. He'll also say that: 'As the leave arguments implode one by one, some of the Brexit leaders morph into Ukip and turn to their default position - immigration. I urge them to take care, this is dangerous territory that - if handled carelessly can open up long-term divisions in our society'. So does he have a point? It's definitely credible to see how some elements of the leave camp are focusing their positions around the immigration debate.

Boris Johnson is nodding along as he reads Karl Marx. To be more precise, he is standing in the Spectator boardroom reading a letter that Marx and Engels wrote to this magazine in 1850 complaining about being pursued by Prussian government spies in London. He then admires a picture of the youthful Taki chatting up Joan Collins at a New York nightclub in 1957. When he was editor of this magazine, he called it ‘the best job in London’. But now he says that being mayor of London was even better. Less fun, perhaps, but more fulfilling. After eight years at City Hall, he is turning his mind to what he will do next. As we sit down to lunch, he suggests that since he has so much more time on his hands, perhaps he could write the leading article or proofread some pages.

David Cameron's speech this morning about the EU referendum will succeed in doing one thing: infuriating the hell out of Eurosceptics. The Prime Minister is set to warn that peace and stability could be at risk if Britain walks away from Europe. He'll also go on to say that the European Union has brought together countries previously 'at each others' throats for decades'. In the Project Fear brand, it's certainly a classic in the genre. But will it work? One of the interesting aspects of his line of argument is the appeal it is likely to have to younger people. Those under the age of 34 are generally much more in favour of remaining in Europe, with only a third (29 per cent) of those aged 18-34 backing Brexit, according to an Opinium poll.

Downing Street is more confident than it has ever been that the EU referendum will be won. It is not just Barack Obama’s full-throated warning against Brexit that is responsible for this, but—as I say in my Sun column this morning—the sense that they have got the argument back onto their home turf of the economy. Indeed, it was striking how much Obama talked yesterday about the economic benefits to Britain of EU membership and the single market. The fact that this was his main message, rather than Western unity against Putin and Islamic State, shows which argument Number 10 thinks is working.

Barack Obama has waded into the Brexit debate but should he be lecturing us about the EU referendum? On this special edition of the Coffee House podcast, Spectator editor Fraser Nelson is joined by Isabel Hardman and James Forsyth to discuss whether the President's intervention is a welcome one and whether it will actually work. On the podcast, Isabel Hardman says: 'I think the out campaign is certainly hoping that Barack Obama will be seen to be patronising British voters and patronising Britain suggesting that it is a sort of weak nation. And I think also the idea of foreign governments lecturing voters on what they should do in their referendum is certainly something the out campaign will look to exploit.

One of the most striking things about the debate on Britain’s future relationship with Europe is that the case for staying is couched overwhelmingly in negative and pessimistic terms, while the case for leaving is positive and optimistic. Those of us who want to Leave believe Britain’s best days lie ahead, that our country has tremendous untapped potential which independence would unleash and our institutions, values and people would make an even more positive difference to the world if we’re unshackled from the past.

George Osborne's warning over what Brexit will cost the UK economy has dominated the headlines for much of the day. But how have the Treasury figures gone down in Westminster? Based on the number of Tory MPs queuing up to slam the Chancellor's claims, it would seem not very well at all: Kwasi Kwarteng said he thought the figures were 'absurd'. He attacked the Treasury as an organisation not qualified to make predictions about economic outcomes following its failure to predict the 2008 credit crunch: John Redwood also used the same word to describe his disdain for the warning that Brexit would cost British families £4,300. He said the predictions for what will happen in 2030 were 'completely worthless'.

Jeremy Corbyn's eye-swivelling about-face on the EU - he once wanted to leave, now he wants to stay - has become a source of mirth for Eurosceptics and a sign of hope for Europhiles. To the anti-EU lobby, the fact that Corbyn voted against staying in the common market in the 1975 referendum and against EU treaties as an MP, yet now wants us all to vote to stay in, shows what a slippery character he is. For the Brussels-loving brigade it confirms that even the most heathen of EU haters can see the light. The 'sinner who repents' - actual words used in the Guardian's editorial on the newly pro-EU Corbyn - could be a useful tool for swinging the vote, apparently. Yet even as we muse over, or mock, Corbyn's tectonic shift, we mustn't overlook the bigger story here.

The US President flies into town next week to wish the Queen a happy 90th birthday and to encourage Britain to stay in the EU. Obama’s will be the most high profile, foreign intervention in this referendum yet. His message will be that it is in the interests of Britain, the US and the West for us to remain in the EU. But the Out campaign have their ‘Love Actually’ moment ready, as I say in my Sun column today. Boris Johnson will knock back Obama’s advice shortly after the president has spoken, pointing out—as he did in this BBC interview—that it is ‘nakedly hypocritical’ for the US to urge us to stay in an institution that erodes sovereignty in a way that they would find completely unacceptable.

This hasn’t been a good week for the government. As I say in my Sun column today, it has been oddly off the pace in its response to Tata’s decision to sell off its UK steel plants. We have had the absurd sight of the Business Secretary flying to Australia and then turning round and coming back again. What makes all this so odd is that everyone knew that Tuesday’s meeting of the Tata board was key to the future of these plants. Government insiders say that the government being caught on the hop is another example of how Number 10’s obsession with the EU referendum means that it is dropping the ball elsewhere. One Minister tells me that ‘Downing Street are totally distracted’.

The upcoming EU referendum has proved to be a divisive issue for families as well as politicians. With Boris Johnson the lone Out-er among his siblings, another famous family are now to take different sides in the great debate. Although Jeremy Corbyn is known to have held Eurosceptic views in the past -- recently deleting articles scathing of Brussels from his website, the Labour leader insists that he is backing Remain. However, Mr S understands that his brother Piers is to get behind the Leave campaign.