Rem Korteweg

It is many a Brexiteer’s fantasy: In 2019, shortly after the UK formally leaves the EU, Theresa May welcomes Donald Trump to Downing Street to ink a trade pact. Out with the old, in with the new, and the ‘special relationship’ standing tall. But how likely is that scenario? A trade deal would certainly be politically meaningful for both sides. For Trump, who is facing pressure over his protectionist rhetoric, it would be an opportunity to boost his pro-trade credentials. While Theresa May could use it to show that Britain has trade options beyond the EU. The prospect of a deal with the US could also boost her hand when it comes to bargaining with Brussels over Brexit.

So when can the UK start negotiating its own trade agreements? Throughout the campaign and thereafter, Brexiters have made passionate pleas for liberating the UK from the EU so it can pursue trade deals of its own. Daniel Hannan, a senior campaigner for Leave, quipped that every continent was growing except Europe and Antarctica, and that Britain after Brexit should strike deals with emerging economies quickly. Boris Johnson suggested that countries like Australia and India were already lined up to begin talks. But before the UK can enter this glorious new era of bilateral trade deals, the new Prime Minister must negotiate the divorce terms with the EU. He or she must also avoid damaging Britain’s existing trade relations with Europe. Welcome to the Great British trade-off.

The Leave campaign sees the EU-Turkey accession talks as a reason to drum up fears about migration. In fact, it is a red herring. True, David Cameron may have previously been one of the most vocal champions for Turkish EU membership, even if during the referendum campaign he said that Turkey will not join 'until the year 3000'. But despite his apparent contradiction, he is right about one thing: Turkish membership is a long way off. So what do the accession talks look like as they stand? They are made up of 35 chapters in all but so far only one chapter – on science and research co-operation – has been successfully negotiated. Fourteen chapters are effectively off limits due to vetoes by Cyprus and others.

Ahmet Davutoglu’s resignation comes at a sensitive moment for the EU’s migration deal with Turkey. Why did the prime minister fall from the sultan’s favour, and what does it mean? Over the past few weeks Davutoglu appeared increasingly worried about the hollowing out of his position. He had every right to be frustrated. In late April his grip on the AK party was weakened, as party bosses decided to stop him from appointing provincial party executives. Davutoglu has been, of course, head of government and head of the ruling AK party in name only. The real chief sits in a 1000-room presidential palace overlooking Ankara.