Conservative party

George Osborne was on Andrew Marr this morning announcing support for a new garden city at Ebbsfleet in Kent and the extension of Help to Buy on new build homes until 2020. The Tories hope that these policies will show both that they are planning for the long term and that they are supporting aspiration. But what struck me as most significant was Osborne’s response when told by Marr that he was sounding more like a Liberal Democrat than a Conservative. He instantly replied, ‘Conservatives believe in lower taxes, Liberal Democrats want to put taxes up.’ We already know that Osborne believes that the rest of the deficit can be cleared without any more tax increases and this reply suggests that the Tories will run in 2015 as the only party that won’t put up taxes.

There’s been much hullaballoo this afternoon over a Populus poll that shows a Labour lead of one point. The usual caveats apply (it’s just one poll!); but, nevertheless, this sample adds to the sense that Ed Miliband is in difficulty. There is, incidentally, only 419 days to go until election day. If the Populus poll was disappointing, then this projection compiled by Stephen Fisher of Oxford University could have Miliband reaching for the scotch: ‘Forecast Election Day Seats: Con : 307 Lab : 285 LD  : 31 Con largest party, but short of a majority by 19’ A dismal prospect for Labour; but there are also worries for the Tories because they are not yet benefitting from Miliband’s malaise and the economic recovery.

How can the Tory party broaden its appeal? Renewal, a group founded to do just that offered its answer at a packed Westminster pub yesterday evening. With just eight days to George Osborne’s 2014 budget, Robert Halfon MP and Renewal’s David Skelton offered their vision of a ‘workers' budget for the Workers’ Party.' Arguing that ‘what happened in Scotland [to the Conservative party] is slowly happening in the North’, Halfon outlined why he believes the Conservative Party needs to change its narrative, mission and structures to go beyond its traditional reach, particularly with working class and ethnic minority voters.

Normally, we wouldn’t blog about a journalist moving jobs — but Tim Montgomerie is an exception. He is an actor in, not just an observer of, Britain's political drama which is why it's significant that he has decided to step down as opinion editor of The Times, to do other things (as yet undefined). Normally, ‘do other things’ is a euphemism – but in Tim’s case, it fits a pattern. He is a serial political entrepreneur, an ex-Iain Duncan Smith staffer who set up ConservativeHome website, and the Centre for Social Justice think tank and can be found behind various other projects (PoliticsHome, 18 Doughty Street TV, and others).

A dramatic Cabinet this morning as the Tories ambushed the Lib Dems over the contents of the Queen’s Speech. First, Cameron took them by surprise by demanding that a recall bill be included in the speech. This was quite a slap to the Liberal Democrats seeing as just last month they were publicly blaming Cameron and Osborne for the fact that a recall bill was not going to be included in the Queen’s Speech. But this wasn’t the only bit of Tory aggression this morning. For Osborne then took up the baton, pushing for the inclusion of an EU referendum bill in the coalition’s legislative agenda. David Laws and Nick Clegg dismissed this idea. But IDS then pointed out that the Liberal Democrats used to boast of being in favour of an In / Out referendum.

Jaw-dropping news tonight: the Daily Mail’s James Chapman reveals that Patrick Rock, the deputy director of the Number 10 policy unit and a long-serving political ally of David Cameron, has resigned after being arrested on child porn charges. Rock was one of Cameron’s Downing Street fixers. The two had worked together as SPADs to Michael Howard and Rock was very much part of the old special adviser network. So, when Cameron and Ed Llewellyn, Cameron’s chief of staff, were looking for a trusted hand to beef up the domestic side of the Downing Street operation they turned to their old colleague, Rock. Rock’s influence in Downing Street had ebbed slightly in recent months. Jo Johnson had been brought in over his head to run the Policy Unit.

The latest figures showing a big increase in net migration are a blow to the Conservatives, although it obviously reflects on the relative strength of the British economy; at least in relation to the basket cases of southern Europe, from where large numbers have come. It will almost certainly mean more Tory voters joining Nigel Farage’s purple revolution, especially because it illustrates the impossibility of controlling immigration while Britain is inside the EU; the number of EU citizens arriving went up from 149,000 to 209,000 in a year. But that’s part of the curious 80/20 Rule about the immigration debate; Europeans accounted for only a fifth of migration under New Labour, and yet received at least 80 per cent of the coverage.

The Coalition is merely cohabiting now - that much has been clear for a while. But one partner doesn't seem to acknowledge quite how unreasonable its behaviour is. The Lib Dems have been cheesing off the Tories with what have appeared to be an increasing number of increasingly heated attacks: from David Laws wading into the Ofsted row to Ed Davey attacking 'diabolical' and 'wilfully ignorant' Tories, and from even 'native' Danny Alexander making dire (but specific) threats about his dead body and taxation to Nick Clegg describing George Osborne's call for further cuts in welfare spending after 2015 as a 'monumental' mistake. But today at his monthly press conference, Clegg denied that his party was pursuing an aggressive policy of differentiation.