Brexit

Wednesday

Alex Massie

The Brexiteers have blown it | 13 March 2019

If, as Rod Liddle says, Brexit has been killed there is no shortage of suspects. 75 of them, in fact. That’s the number of Conservative MPs who voted against the Government in last night’s second – but not necessarily final – meaningful vote. They wanted Brexit and then, when they were given it, they decided it wasn’t the kind of Brexit they wanted after all.  Fanaticism invariably devours its adherents and so it is with Brexit. The Brexiteers wanted the ball but once they had it they decided they did not actually want it after all. They had their chance and they blew it. All they had to do was

Tuesday

Geoffrey Cox

“The backstop risk is unchanged”: Geoffrey Cox’s full legal advice

Geoffrey Cox, the Attorney General, has published his verdict on the EU’s concessions. He reminds us that in his last judgement, the backstop “could not be brought to an end in the absence of a subsequent [UK-EU] agreement. This would remain the case even if parties were still negotiating many years later, and even if the parties believed that talks have clearly broken down.” There is now a reduced risk of this, he says. But his final sentence makes clear that the risk remains and if talks do break down, “However, the legal risk remains unchanged that if through no such demonstrable failure of either party, but simply because of

Johannes de Jong

Why the EU is so keen for Theresa May’s Brexit deal to pass

In recent weeks, two big beasts in the European political arena pushed forward their respective ideas for the future of the European Union. France’s president Emmanuel Macron repeated his dream of a big EU. And the leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer responded in kind with a vision of an EU that is larger than it is now but smaller than the EU ‘a la Macron’. In both visions, the reality of Brexit was conspicuously absent. The decision to ignore Brexit in these visions of the future EU is easily understood if one gets the updated ‘deal’ that Theresa May struck with the EU overnight. ‘This is it’,

Charles Day

The silence from Geoffrey Cox bodes ill for May’s deal

The loudest sound this morning is the silence from Geoffrey Cox, the Attorney-General. The test for Theresa May’s discussion with Brussels is whether it means the UK will be caught indefinitely in the backstop. And the person who decides this is Mr Cox. No10 misrepresented the nature of the backstop when it was signed: some (then) Cabinet members go further and say that they were lied to. Then No10’s own representation of the Withdrawal Agreement was contradicted by the Attorney-General. This is what led us to this point: No10 has, alas, proved that it cannot be trusted to interpret legal advice. Cox has proven that he can be trusted.  Cox

Rod Liddle

Brexit is now dead

And that, my lovely friends, is it for Brexit. You kippers and ERGers who think we’ll leave with no deal, are deluded. They will not let it happen. They were never going to let it happen. Brexit has been killed by a Parliament which by a two-to-one majority never wanted it, despite what lip service they paid to respecting the will of the people. The liberal elite has won. I suspect it will be its last victory before it is expunged.

James Forsyth

Why we could be heading for a third vote on May’s Brexit deal

Late last night, there was a sense of optimism among ministers that the government’s revised deal might have a chance. But those hopes were crushed this morning by Geoffrey Cox’s blunt legal advice. With Cox declaring that the legal risk was unchanged, the DUP were never going to back the deal and that meant the bulk of the ERG wouldn’t either. In the end, the withdrawal agreement went down by 149 votes—at the worst end of expectations. May immediately declared that there would be a vote on no deal tomorrow, and it would be a free vote. May’s justification for this was the referendum precedent, but for the governing party

Robert Peston

We’re now heading for a no-deal Brexit – but not just yet

A member of the Cabinet uttered just one word to me about this latest humiliating defeat for the Prime Minister about her Brexit deal: “nightmare!”. Let’s put this nightmare into context. In January, the Prime Minister’s painstakingly negotiated Brexit plan was rejected by a record 230 votes, the worst defeat for a government ever. Tonight’s defeat by 149 votes is also huge by all measures. And let’s be clear, these are not defeats about rules and regulations for ice cream vans. They relate to the most important economic, security and foreign policy decision this country has taken for many decades. This is therefore without precedent in modern times as a

The Spectator

Full text: Theresa May reacts to her Brexit deal defeat

I profoundly regret the decision that this House has taken tonight. I continue to believe that by far the best outcome is that the UK leaves the EU in an orderly fashion with a deal, and that the deal we have negotiated is the best and indeed the only deal available. Mr Speaker, I would like to set out briefly how the Government means to proceed. Two weeks ago, I made a series of commitments from this despatch box regarding the steps we would take in the event that this House rejected the deal on offer. I stand by those commitments in full. Therefore, tonight we will table a motion

The Spectator

The full list of Tory MPs that backed May’s Brexit deal

Theresa May has suffered another thumping defeat on her Brexit deal. This time, she lost by a margin of 149. But she did manage to whittle down the number of Tory rebels significantly. In tonight’s vote, 235 of May’s fellow Conservative MPs backed her Brexit plan. Here is the full list of the Tory rebels who changed their minds to back May: David Amess, Bob Blackman, Fiona Bruce, Ben Bradley, Graham Brady, Maria Caulfield, Tracey Crouch, Philip Davies, David Davis, Nadine Dorries, Steve Double, Nigel Evans, David Evennett, Zac Goldsmith, Robert Halfon, Greg Hands, John Hayes, Greg Knight, John Lamont, Tim Loughton, Scott Mann, Stephen McPartland, Johnny Mercer, Stephen Metcalfe, Nigel Mills, Andrew Mitchell, Damien Moore, Matthew Offord, Mike Penning, Mark Pritchard, Will Quince, Julian Sturdy, Hugo Swire, Robert Syms, Derek Thomas, Martin Vickers, Giles Watling, Bill Wiggin. William Wragg And the other Tory MPs who again voted

Tom Goodenough

Theresa May’s Brexit deal defeated again in the Commons

Theresa May’s revised Brexit deal has been voted down decisively by MPs. The Prime Minister’s Withdrawal Agreement was defeated by 391 to 242 votes, a margin of 149 votes. May had said if her ‘improved’ deal did not pass, there was a risk of ‘no Brexit at all’. But while the number of Tory rebels was down on the first meaningful vote, which the Government lost by a margin of 230, it wasn’t enough for the PM’s deal to pass. May reacted to the defeat by promising a free vote in the Commons tomorrow on whether MPs would back a no-deal Brexit. On Thursday, May said that the Commons would vote

Steerpike

Boris Johnson: Why I won’t vote for Theresa May’s Brexit deal

Boris Johnson says he will still vote against Theresa May’s Brexit deal. Here is his verdict on the PM’s revised Withdrawal Agreement: I sincerely hoped that the Government would be able to make the wholly modest changes that this House urged them to make. And that there would be no risk that this country would find itself trapped in the backstop or no risk that we would lose our democratic right to make laws for this country, or pass them to a foreign entity for all time as we’re in danger of doing. But whatever the Government tried to do it has not I’m afraid succeeded. Now I congratulate the Prime

Steerpike

Corbyn backs no-deal Brexit

When it comes to Brexit, Jeremy Corbyn is still keeping his options open. But the same can’t be said of his brother. Piers Corbyn has taken a breather from tweeting about climate change to throw his weight behind a no-deal Brexit. The Labour leader’s older sibling wrote: ‘The threat of CrashOut catastrophe is nonsense’. ‘Nodeal OnlyDeal’, he added: Mr S. thinks it might be awkward in the Corbyn family if Jeremy does end up backing a second referendum…

Isabel Hardman

DUP confirms it won’t support May’s Brexit deal

The DUP has confirmed that it will be voting against Theresa May’s Brexit deal this evening. A party spokesman said that ‘sufficient progress has not been achieved at this time’ and that ‘it is clear that the risks remain that the UK would be unable to lawfully exit the backstop were it to be activated’. Along with the European Research Group’s recommendation to vote down the deal, this means that the Prime Minister’s strategy of trying to win over the DUP and the Brexiteers in her own party has failed. It means that she is facing a landslide defeat tonight. The Commons benches behind the Prime Minister as she is

Steerpike

Geoffrey Cox clashes with Channel 4’s Jon Snow

It’s here. It’s Brexit day, again. And Channel 4’s Jon Snow and Geoffrey Cox, the Attorney-General, have come to blows on Twitter. Snow tweeted the latest from his ‘lawyer contact’ this morning on what Cox’s verdict is on the Prime Minister’s verdict. It’s safe to say Cox was not impressed: Well, at least that’s cleared that up then. Mr S thinks Theresa May will be hoping that Cox isn’t quite so rude when it comes to him delivering the verdict on her Brexit deal…

Katy Balls

What Theresa May needs to go right today to avoid another historic defeat

In order to turn things around with her Brexit deal, Theresa May needs a domino effect. She needs to somehow get 116 MPs to change their vote from last time and back her deal. If the Prime Minister is to have any chance of passing her deal – or significantly reducing the scale of the defeat from 230 votes – May must first convince the DUP that the legally-binding concessions she has secured from Brussels are enough to stop the backstop from becoming permanent. The Attorney General’s legal advice could prove pivotal in the matter (and there are doubts in government that he will change it) – though given that

The Spectator

Full list: The Tory rebels who have changed their minds on May’s deal

When Theresa May’s Brexit deal last came before the Commons it was voted down by 202 votes to 432 – a historic defeat. A total of 118 Tory MPs rebelled against the Government in the January vote. To avoid a repeat, the Prime Minister needs to persuade those rebels that her deal has changed for the better. These are the Tory MPs the PM has managed to convince – and those who still appear to be unconvinced: Tory rebels who have changed their minds and will now back May’s deal (19): Ben Bradley Tracey Crouch David Davis Nigel Evans James Gray Robert Halfon Greg Hands John Lamont Scott Mann Johnny

Monday

James Forsyth

Has May got enough?

There was no triumphalism in Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker’s press conference. Nor was there much detail. May talked about how the joint interpretative instrument meant that the backstop could be challenged and taken to arbitration if the EU was trying to apply ‘the backstop indefinitely’. What May did not mention was how this arbitration mechanism would work. Multiple Cabinet Ministers think, after discussion tonight, that the arbitration does not refer to the ECJ. If that is the case, it will convince a slug of Tory MPs that this arbitration mechanism has teeth. The second aspect is the aspiration to have alternative arrangements in place by the end of December

Ross Clark

The choice voters must be given if there is a second referendum

Of all the possible outcomes on Brexit one stands out as more unpleasant, more outrageous, more guaranteed to provoke mass anger in the country than any other. No, not Britain leaving the EU on 29 March with no deal – however much that would send some into their imaginary bunkers for fear of the sky falling in. It is Britain being made to vote in a second referendum – without the option of no deal on the ballot paper. Worryingly, this is exactly the outcome which a large part of the Labour party – including, crucially, the leadership – seem intent on achieving. Two weeks ago, the leadership produced a

Sunday

Steerpike

Anna Soubry and the Independent Group don’t make a good fit

What does the Independent Group actually stand for? We know what they are against: Brexit and anti-Semitism. But so far the fledgling group has been somewhat shy about coming up with policies. With TIG MPs this week reportedly entering talks with the Electoral Commission about become a political party, they had better get a move on. Only Mr S. suspects the task won’t be an easy one, given that one of their members – former Tory MP Anna Soubry – seems to take a difference stance to the bulk of their colleagues on most issues. To help out, Steerpike has compiled a list of where Anna Soubry stands compared to her

Saturday

James Forsyth

Is there any way that May’s deal could pass on Tuesday?

The government’s efforts to get changes to the backstop have run into a brick wall in Brussels. The EU thinks, with justification, that MPs won’t allow no deal and so feels under no pressure to make significant concessions. As I write in The Sun this morning, one minister fully briefed on the negotiations says ‘we’re at what the hell do we do time’ But without a change to the backstop, Theresa May’s deal is going down to another heavy defeat on Tuesday. That won’t be the end of the matter, though. For the next day, parliament will vote against leaving on March 29th with no deal. Parliament will then almost