Brexit

Thursday

Martin Vander Weyer

Why we should all be eating out more

Trade associations are even better journalistic sources than talkative taxi drivers. If you want to know what’s happening in the economy of physical goods, consult a conclave of forklift truck operators; for a barometer of optimism among middle-class homeowners, mingle with managers of the nation’s garden centres. And if you want to feel the true pulse of discretionary spending, try suppliers of catering equipment. Invited to address a meeting of the latter on the inevitable topic (‘How the hell did we get into this Brexit mess?’ was my brief), I’m certain I learned more from them than they did from me. ‘Crisis in casual dining’ makes a less eye-catching headline

James Forsyth

This medium extension has reduced the chances of a general election 

If the EU had granted the UK an extension until the end of this year or for another 12 months, there would have been a Tory leadership contest and then a general election. Yesterday, key figures in the party were discussing a timetable that would have seen a new leader in place by the summer, a blitz on domestic policy and then a general election in the autumn. But the 31 October deadline complicates matters. Any new Tory leader would have to go to the country straight away, which is not an appealing prospect given the Tory party’s current travails. So, the chances of a Tory leadership contest and a general

Robert Peston

The latest delay could turn the Tories into the no-deal Brexit party

Under pressure from France’s president Macron, the Brexit delay to 31 October is shorter than Donald Tusk, the EU’s president, and many government heads thought desirable – though still considerably longer than Theresa May consistently said was acceptable. Its impact may well be to turn the Tories into the no-deal Brexit party and Labour into the referendum party, via a change of Tory leader and even a general election. Here’s how and why. What was agreed late last night poses an immediate and important question for MPs and ministers, because there is an explicit opportunity for the UK to avoid participating in the EU election by leaving without a deal on 1

Jonathan Miller

Emmanuel’s folly

 Montpellier An embattled, incompetent leader distrusted and disliked by a vast majority of voters. A wobbly economy that might be tipped into recession by Brexit. A re-energised opposition. Huge street protests. Squabbling with European partners. The government is paralysed, the opposition is emboldened — and the nation stands humiliated, as the world looks on in horror wondering how a leader who was so popular two years ago could get things so wrong. Not Theresa May, but Emmanuel Macron, the politician who may be the greatest Brexiteer of them all. As the saga of British withdrawal enters its final chapter, Macron has emerged as the loudest advocate for pushing Britain out

James Forsyth

Brexit’s last best chance

It’s been even more humiliating second time round. The United Kingdom has again been reduced to asking the European Union for an extension to the Article 50 process. Once was bad enough but twice marks a profound failure of government and Parliament. It has left the EU deciding the country’s future. In Westminster, there is no sign of a resolution to the Brexit impasse. Cross-party talks between Labour and the Tories continue. Sources close to those talks feel that a common position is unlikely to be found. A deal between the two parties would require that Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn both be prepared to split their parties. This seems

Martin Vander Weyer

Be thankful our economy isn’t shaped like Germany’s

This is no time for schadenfreude — but take comfort from the fact that the UK isn’t built like Germany. Being a world-leading exporter of manufactured goods — which they are and we’re not — is all very well until orders from China fade, Donald Trump adds you to his list of trade foes, your flagship car industry goes into spasm, and even the mystic waters of the Rhine get in on the act by falling to levels that impede the movement of cargo. Now the German economy is close to recession, with falling factory orders and a Purchasing Managers’ Index for manufacturing (in which results below 50 indicate contraction)

Lionel Shriver

You win, parliament. Now revoke Article 50

Dear Remainer parliament. Although we’re the voters who spurned the petition for this very course of action, we the undersigned formally request that you please revoke Article 50 at your earliest convenience. For Philip, Oliver, Dominic, Amber, Greg, et al (forgive the familiar first names, but over the last few months we’ve come to feel we know you so terribly well), this appeal from your nemeses may come as a surprise. After all, it was to appease us knuckle-draggers that you invoked the Article in the first place. Apologies for seeming so fickle. But in what Charles Moore has aptly dubbed Europe’s contemporary ‘empire’, all roads lead not to Rome

Matthew Parris

What’s left for Brexiteers?

My first encounter with a plan to hold not one but two referendums on Britain’s European Union membership happened more than three years ago. At least two individuals were actively entertaining the idea. Both were Leavers. Dominic Cummings had proposed it in one of his blogs. Boris Johnson had not publicly endorsed such a thing, but (I know) was discussing it with interest privately. The thinking, as I recall, was similar in both cases. The first referendum would be the one we then faced: asking voters for a yes or no to the idea that in principle we should quit. If the result was Remain, we’d remain. If Leave, there

Melissa Kite

Uncool Britannia

A famous actor looks tearfully into the camera. It is Michael Sheen, or possibly Ewan McGregor. His voice cracks as he says: ‘For just £5 a month, you could help an MP recover from the shock of having his Brexit amendment rejected. Just £5 will help pay for counsellors trained to help our brave MPs debate EU withdrawal motions. Please donate now so that MPs like Nick Boles know you care. They give so much of themselves, and ask so little…’ I exaggerate, but only a bit. We keep hearing from MPs about how the stress of Brexit is harming them mentally and emotionally. You might think the nation’s elected

Wednesday

Lloyd Evans

Theresa May’s destiny is in Donald Tusk’s hands now

Is this the end? The tragedy is that she no longer knows. The Prime Minister’s destiny is in the hands of Britain’s de facto head of state, Donald Tusk. On March 20th, Mrs May told Parliament that ‘as Prime Minister’ she couldn’t countenance delaying Brexit beyond June 30th. If Tusk refuses her request for a second short extension, it’s hard to see how she can continue.  Theories and predictions abound. The noted political philosopher, Gina Miller, suggested yesterday that Mrs May could be using the Lab/Con talks as a scam that will enable her to complete a no-deal Brexit on April 12th and saddle Labour with the blame. The flaw

Robert Peston

A year-long delay could extinguish Brexit

Gloss it as they may, if EU leaders force a Brexit delay of a year on the UK, contrary to the request from Theresa May – as the EU president Donald Tusk wants – then they will have made a momentous judgement that will cause an earthquake, for us and them. They would be sending a signal that they have lost all confidence in the UK Prime Minister – and probably any UK prime minister – securing parliamentary approval of the Brexit divorce settlement, the Withdrawal Agreement, that they painfully negotiated over two years. The point is that a delay of a year would remove all pressure on equivocal MPs

Nick Cohen

Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn have been undone by Brexit | 10 April 2019

One could almost look on Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn and see a story of frustrated love. They could be happy, the soppy observer might think. If only they could get some time on their own, and unburden their hearts, they would find they were in perfect agreement. Alas, their inability to be honest with each other keeps them apart, and prevents them knowing their true feelings. Brexit is not a romance but a national tragedy. But in one respect at least it matches stories of unrequited love. Brexit is being defined by the inability of political leaders and much of the media to be honest with  themselves – and indeed

Tuesday

James Kanagasooriam

Eight reasons why young voters are turning away from the Tories | 9 April 2019

It’s plain to see that the Conservative party has a youth problem. Millennials are turning away from the party in their droves. But what is actually causing this dire Tory performance among young voters? There are eight reasons, any of which on their own would present a problem. Together, their combination is creating a conveyor belt towards oblivion for the party. Part of the reason why youngsters are not voting Tory can be explained by the higher number of them who come from an ethnic minority. Only two in 100 voters aged 85 or over are black or ethnic minority; this compares to around 20 per cent of those aged 29

James Forsyth

Theresa May’s Brexit strategy is brewing trouble within her party

The Commons has voted by 420 to 110 to approve Theresa May’s decision to ask for an extension to the Article 50 process to the 30th of June. It isn’t a surprise that this motion passed, there is an anti no-deal majority in the Commons, but the 97 Tory votes against and the number of abstentions, including several Cabinet Ministers, highlights how controversial May’s approach is within her own party. May’s approach would become even more controversial if she agreed to a customs union as part of a deal with Labour, as Liam Fox’s broadside against it showed. The talks between the government and Labour finished for the day earlier

Kate Andrews

EU officials and Brexiteers share a similar concern over Brexit

Rumours continue to circulate that if a long extension were to be granted by the European Union, it could be flexible. This would mean that Britain could officially depart from the bloc earlier than the agreed-upon exit date if a deal were secured between the UK and the EU27. I’m unsure what about the past two-and-a-half years could make someone think that MPs will pull together and unite around a deal before crunch time. I remain deeply sceptical that a long extension could ever encourage a shorter exit process – evidenced by not one, but two requests for an Article 50 extension in the past six weeks. Putting scepticism aside, there’s

James Kirkup

The myth of the Great British Brexit trade policy

It makes almost no sense for the Brexit debacle to have come down to the issue of an ‘independent British trade policy’. Trade was not a central issue at the referendum and remains wildly misunderstood by public and politicians alike. But we are where we are. If we end up crashing out by accident, or the May government tears itself apart, it will be on the pretext that significant numbers of Tory MPs want that independent trade policy and cannot stomach the restrictions that a customs union would put on Britain’s freedom over trade. It’s hard to know where to start with trying to dismantle the trade illusion, so long

Monday

John Keiger

How Brexit could lead to Frexit

Struggling to understand the ways of the French, the francophile Winston Churchill reflected whimsically in 1942: ‘The Almighty in His infinite wisdom did not see fit to create Frenchmen in the image of Englishmen.’ And yet today, the Almighty would struggle to create two more similar states in international terms than Britain and France. Similar geographies on the northwest European continent, similar populations (66 and 67 million), economies (5th and 6th by GDP), colonial histories, 3rd and 4th nuclear powers, two of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, leading members of Nato and, until 2019 (probably), equally prominent members of the European Union. The similarities continue to

Isabel Hardman

Corbyn says May still isn’t compromising on her Brexit red lines

Jeremy Corbyn has insisted that Theresa May hasn’t yet moved on her Brexit red lines in talks with the Labour Party. In a broadcast clip this evening, the Labour leader said: ‘Well, the meetings are very long. A great deal of detail is gone into by both parties. We have people who have been on this case for several years so they’re all very accustomed to it all. We’ve gone into it because the government at last acceded to a request I first made last September that we’re prepared to talk and put forward our views, but talks have to mean a movement and so far there’s been no change

Robert Peston

Britain’s Brexit fate is now in Emmanuel Macron’s hands

Our Brexit fate is in the hands of France’s president Macron – which is “not a wholly comfortable state of affairs,” in the euphemistic words of a minister. What this minister means is the Prime Minister and her close colleagues are a long way from being convinced Macron will underwrite EU president Donald Tusk’s proposal for the UK to be granted a year’s delay to Brexit, with a break clause to allow us to leave the EU earlier if all the political and legal niceties can be completed earlier. They believe – rightly or wrongly – Macron has three serious reservations with conceding such a longish and relatively unfettered extension:

Robert Peston

Could Theresa May cancel Brexit?

Is the de facto Brexit default now revoking Article 50 this week rather than a no-deal Brexit on 12 April? I ask because the Prime Minister is now explicitly saying the choice is a binary one between some version of her negotiated deal and not leaving at all (that is what she said in her sofa chat yesterday). The point is that she has no power to prevent a no-deal Brexit on 12 April by delaying Brexit; for a delay, she needs the unanimous agreement of the EU’s 27 leaders. But she does have the unilateral power to prevent a no deal by cancelling Brexit altogether, by revoking the Article 50