Brexit

Britain should pay a Brexit bill – but only on one condition

Fifty billion? Seventy-five? In its wilder moments, the FT might even splash on a hundred billion pounds as the minimum cost of our exit from the European Union. As the negotiations over our departure reach perhaps the thorniest issue of all, the final bill will have to be settled. But what should it be? If the hardliners on both side would calm down for a moment, then the answer should be very simple. We should agree to cover the cost of the disruption our departure creates, but only in return for a fair deal on trade. It is probably a mystery to most people why we have to pay anything

What the papers say: Europe’s leaders must wake up to Juncker’s games

Jean-Claude Juncker is a ‘preposterous oaf’, according to the Sun. The paper says that, particularly on this side of the Channel, people shouldn’t care much about what he thinks. Yet ‘diehard Remainers’ continue to treat his word as gospel and ‘seize on Juncker’s every self-serving snippet as “evidence” of our Government’s failings’. Yes, there are some ‘reservations’ with how ministers are dealing with Brexit. But the papers published this month on Brexit by the Government actually look ‘eminently reasonable’ – a stark contrast from the ‘childish, posturing amateurs in Brussels’. Juncker isn’t the only one to have criticised the British government’s attitude towards Brexit in the last few days. The EU’s chief

What the papers say: The time for a Brexit transition is running out

Is the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier actually serious about doing his job, wonders the Sun. In its editorial, the paper says that yesterday ‘yet another round’ of talks went by with hardly any progress. Once again, Barnier used the lack of any substance to complain. But the Sun is questioning whether this is all part of the plan: ‘The suspicion grows daily that Mr Barnier is hoping…to lengthen the impasse’, and that by doing so he’ll force the government to back down – or hold out for a second referendum to put paid to Brexit for good. This approach shows a ‘contemptible disregard’ for British voters who backed Brexit, argues the Sun. Yet

Debunking the ‘Brexodus’ myth

A new word has entered the lexicon – Brexodus – to reflect the claim that Europeans are leaving in droves as they shun post-Brexit Britain. But it is a funny sort of Brexodus which leaves the number of European nationals in Britain at an all-time high. While the quarterly immigration figures did show a significant reduction in the scale of EU immigration to the UK, and a rise in the number of Europeans departing, those figures also showed that twice as many Europeans came to the UK as departed from it, with an estimated 122,000 EU nationals leaving the UK while 249,000 arrived in the year to March 2017. There have

The truth about Brexit? One professor’s guess is no better than another’s | 28 August 2017

Removing all trade and tariff barriers as part of a hard Brexit would generate ‘a £135 billion annual boost to the UK economy’, according to Professor Patrick Minford on behalf of Economists for Free Trade — while those who claim his ideas spell economic suicide are ‘hired hands, they work for government, they work for big industry…’ Well maybe, as I frequently say: Minford talks of a 4 per cent GDP gain from free trade, 2 per cent from ‘improved regulation’ and more from reclaiming our net EU budget contribution and ‘removing the taxpayer subsidy to unskilled immigration’. All of which adds up to much more, for example, than the

On Brexit, Labour and the Tories are closer than either would like to admit

For months, Labour has been moving ever closer to the Tory position on Brexit while pretending that it isn’t. First, it backed Brexit. Then in June, John McDonnell told Robert Peston that he couldn’t see continued membership of the single market being ‘on the table’ in Brexit negotiations. He added that people would interpret membership of the single market as ‘not respecting that referendum.’ In July, Jeremy Corbyn told Andrew Marr that single market membership is ‘dependent on membership of the EU.’ Barry Gardiner has even suggested that the UK would become a ‘vassal state’ if it were to remain in the single market after Brexit. Today, Sir Keir Starmer writes in the Observer that, unlike Liam Fox and Philip Hammond,

Money worries cast a cloud over David Davis’s bank holiday weekend

Spare a thought for David Davis over the bank holiday weekend. As revellers descend on Notting Hill Carnival on Monday, the Brexit Secretary will be at the negotiating table in Brussels for the third round of Brexit talks. With the EU 27 adamant that trade talks can only begin once progress has been made on the other issues, the focus will be on the Brexit ‘divorce bill’, the rights of EU nationals, and the Irish border. Given how uphill talks have been so far, the expectation in Whitehall is that this could be a bad-tempered outing for both sides. Michel Barnier – the EU’s chief negotiator – is expected to,

Brexit is irrelevant to the gravest problems facing Britain

One entirely foreseeable consequence of Brexit is that although it is irrelevant to the gravest problems facing the nation, the government talks about nothing else. There is a black hole in the defence budget: instead of reshaping policy to address this, starting by mothballing the Royal Navy’s absurd new aircraftless-carrier, ministers merely scrabble to keep the crisis away from the Commons and front pages. My wife Penny says, with her accustomed good sense: ‘People only really care about terrorism and cyber-attacks. They are not interested in the Russian threat to the Baltic states.’ Yet real political leaders, as distinct from placemen, would aspire to inform voters, rather than merely chortle

Diary – 24 August 2017

It has been a summer of tears, both of joy and sorrow. The latter first: how could stones not weep at the spectacle of this Gadarene government leading us towards the cliff edge with a show of insouciance on the part of Fox, Davis, Johnson that would be thought excessive at a wedding, never mind a funeral? At Daily Telegraph leader conferences 25 years ago, our young turks bewailed John Major’s government as the worst in history. Bill Deedes justly rebuked such hyperbole: ‘Are we really saying that Samuel Hoare was a better foreign secretary than Malcolm Rifkind?’ Today, however, it is hard to name a senior minister, with the

Brexit means taking back responsibility

Say what you like about the Tories but cutting immigration by 100,000 in a single day is impressive. To think Jeremy Corbyn says this government isn’t delivering. Until now, official figures put the number of students overstaying their visa in the UK at 100,000. An update from the Office for National Statistics confirms critics’ suspicions that that total was flawed. In fact, the Home Office notes, last year only three percent of foreign students were unaccounted for. That means roughly 3,000 overstayed. Skim-readers and those out for a political fight have branded this a ‘blunder’ but the facts are more complex. Access to emigration data in this area has only

What the papers say: Theresa May shows she is for turning

In any deal, says the Sun, ‘no party should agree to the rules being set by the other side’. So the Prime Minister is ‘reassuringly spot on’ to insist we cut ‘direct ties with the European Court of Justice’. Whatever some might say, ‘make no mistake..’ the ECJ is no independent institution’, argues the paper – and instead, the court has been the ‘hothouse’ for the ‘ever-growing superstate’ of the European Union. Theresa May’s decision to turn Britain away from the court should be welcomed; and the terms the government put forward in its position paper, which it published yesterday, ‘strikes a decent balance’. Now, we can be grateful that ‘any

The truth about Brexit? One professor’s guess is no better than another’s

Removing all trade and tariff barriers as part of a hard Brexit would generate ‘a £135 billion annual boost to the UK economy’, according to Professor Patrick Minford on behalf of Economists for Free Trade — while those who claim his ideas spell economic suicide are ‘hired hands, they work for government, they work for big industry…’ Well maybe, as I frequently say: Minford talks of a 4 per cent GDP gain from free trade, 2 per cent from ‘improved regulation’ and more from reclaiming our net EU budget contribution and ‘removing the taxpayer subsidy to unskilled immigration’. All of which adds up to much more, for example, than the

The government is right to turn its back on the European Court of Justice

A key question in the Brexit talks is how any deal between the EU and UK will be upheld. The government has begun to address this today, publishing a paper on enforcement and dispute resolution. One thing is clear: ministers are committed to extricating the UK from the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice (ECJ). In fact, the main point of the paper could be summed up as spelling out why Britain cannot agree to the ECJ being the arbiter of any Brexit deal. The government is entirely right about this. Sovereign states do not and should not enter into agreements in which the meaning and effect of the

Theresa May’s ‘no deal’ bravado is a thing of the past

A transitional period that offers businesses some time, and some certainty.  A financial settlement including a one-off severance payment and possibly ongoing contributions for continuing programmes. A legal arrangement that concedes some sort of role to some sort of European court, and thus concedes that any substantive trade relationship with the EU will involve some sort of sharing of sovereignty. Today’s government paper on the ECJ is more proof that Theresa May has come a long way from the days of “no deal is better than a bad deal”. The clear message from the UK government positions sketched out this summer is this: we want a deal. We really want

Is Theresa May preparing to cross her Brexit ‘red line’?

Theresa May could not have been any clearer: the UK is leaving the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice after Brexit. Here’s what she told the Tory party conference back in October: ‘Let’s state one thing loud and clear: we are not leaving the European Union only to give up control of immigration all over again. And we are not leaving only to return to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. That’s not going to happen.’ And for those who didn’t get the memo, here she was in January: “So we will take back control of our laws and bring an end to the jurisdiction of the

Revealed: Guy Verhofstadt’s well-paid side jobs

Guy Verhofstadt is a busy man. As well as his day job in the European parliament, Verhofstadt has the task of trying to thrash out a deal in his role as its chief Brexit negotiator. But that daunting task – and his dedication to the EU – isn’t stopping the Belgian politician from earning a small fortune for his side jobs away from his taxpayer-funded role. In fact, in a tally of all 748 MEPs, Verhofstadt comes second for his outside earnings – which tally up to at least £175,000 a year. As an MEP, Verhofstadt already pockets £93,000 a year. But the bulk of his income actually comes from his commitments

What the papers say: Britain’s Brexit trump cards

The EU holds all the ‘trump cards’ in Brexit talks. Or at least that’s what some ‘Remainers’ would have you think, says the Sun in its editorial today. Don’t believe it, the paper insists, pointing out that the EU 27 ‘export a massive amount of goods to the UK’. In fact, as the government pointed out yesterday in its Brexit position paper on trade, our friends on the continent ‘sell more stuff here than to China, Russia, India and Brazil combined’. All this means that it is ‘massively in their interest to work with Britain’ – a realisation that is starting to sink in, the Sun suggests. Take the report

From Greece with love

Since Britain voted to leave the EU, the decision has been met with derision and mockery by many foreign media outlets – with the New York Times concluding that ‘no Dunkirk spirit can save Britain from Brexit defeat’. However, are some EU members beginning to feel a pang of jealously over the UK’s decision to leave? Mr S only asks on receiving a postcard from his Greek mole, which revealed graffiti calling for Greece to ‘take the Brexit road’: ‘Welcome to Greece, the land of opportunity. Taxes, taxes and more taxes.’ It seems the land of opportunity now lies in the Atlantic, not the Mediterranean.

Al Gore says Brexit was caused by… climate change

There are plenty of theories about what led to the Brexit vote. Now, Al Gore, has a new one to add to the pile. The former vice president – who has been busy promoting his new film by labelling those who question him ’deniers’ – says the EU referendum result was brought about because of… climate change. Gore suggested that the war in Syria was caused by ‘climate refugees’ flooding into the cities. This, in turn, by Gore’s version of events at least, kickstarted the wider refugee crisis – eventually leading Brits to vote out last June. Here’s what Gore told the New European: ‘Long before the civil war in Syria began

Britain – not Brussels – is doing all the innovative thinking on Brexit

We will be hopelessly out-witted by wily Brussels negotiators. We are unprepared for the scale of the task. We are about to be humiliated as we discover just how weak our hand is against a unified European Union that is determined to punish us for our foolishness in leaving the world’s largest trading bloc. The hardcore Remainer commentary on our negotiations over Brexit is so familiar it just about writes itself. But in the last few days, there has been an interesting twist to that script. The UK, far from being the confused, divided and weak partner is the side coming up with the interesting innovative ideas. And it is