Brexit

Will the House of Lords rebel against the EU withdrawal bill?

Labour’s decision to whip against the EU withdrawal bill might well have more of an impact in the Lords than the Commons. In the Commons, as I wrote on Monday, the number of Tory rebels might well be offset by Labour ones—and I suspect that Labour’s decision to whip against the bill at second reading will make it easier for the Tories to peel off Labour rebels on amendments later on. But in the House of Lords, the government doesn’t have any sort of majority. If Labour whip against it there and team up with Liberal Democrat and cross-bench peers,  the bill could end up only passing with significant amendments.

David Davis mocked for ‘simple and easy’ Brexit claim

The most memorable line from David Davis’s statement on the Brexit negotiations to the Commons was his claim that ‘nobody pretended this would be simple or easy’. MPs who disagree with the Brexit Secretary loved this because quite a few people have made claims to that effect, including Davis and his colleague the International Trade Secretary Liam Fox. But in terms of any revelations to MPs, the most interesting line from the minister was that the negotiations on the divorce bill could go down to the wire. ‘My expectation is that the money argument will go on for the full duration of the negotiation,’ he told the Commons. This is

The government’s defence in the Henry VIII powers row won’t work

While the Tory whips are reasonably relaxed about the prospects for the second reading of the EU withdrawal bill, they are already preparing for the row in Committee stage over Henry VIII clauses. The Cabinet discussed the importance of getting the legislation through Parliament when it met this morning, and ministers are aware that these statutory instruments, which allow the government to make changes to legislation without any parliamentary scrutiny, could become an even bigger problem when the Bill reaches the Lords. The Prime Minister’s official spokesman was asked about these powers at the lobby briefing today. He argued that they were only acting as a ‘correcting power’ which would

Theresa May is right to think there’s more to life than Brexit

The general election in June changed the politics of Brexit in ways that some pro-Leave commentators are desperately trying to ignore but which anyone actually doing politics has now accepted: ‘no deal’ is not an option, because there is not a Commons majority that would accept the steep drop out of the EU onto the rocks of the jagged WTO rules below. There certainly isn’t a majority in the country for that option, and a PM who tried to sell a ‘no deal’ Brexit would be asking for removal and possibly an election the Tories could lose. There will be a deal, in the end, because the Conservative Party, despite its

What the papers say: How to make the Brexit bill work

Urgency is badly needed in Brexit talks, says the Sun. So the paper welcomes Theresa May saying that ‘both sides have to put more hours in’. It’s been a surprise that, up until now, ‘only a week each month’ has been dedicated to meeting face-to-face, says the paper – which makes the lack of progress ‘small wonder’. Now, things need to change: companies based in Britain are looking for reassurances. And even the likes of Nick Clegg, who the paper refers to as one of the EU’s ‘most slavish UK cheerleaders’, wants Brussels’ bureaucrats to show some flexibility and allow trade talks to start. ‘The clock is ticking’, warns the Sun, so

David Lammy’s Brexit bashing backfires

Bashing Brexit is familiar territory for David Lammy. But Mr S thinks the next time the Labour MP wades in on the EU debate he might do so more carefully. Lammy was on Radio 4 last night following up on remarks reportedly made by EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier that Brits need to be ‘educated’ on Brexit. Unsurprisingly, Lammy was on Barnier’s side. He said: ‘When Barnier says he needs to educate the British public, I’ve got to say, he’s probably right about that’ Lammy brushed off the suggestion that he was being patronising. Yet somewhat awkwardly for Lammy, Barnier is now distancing himself from the comments. On Twitter, Barnier has said

Will Labour Brexiteers keep the withdrawal bill clean?

With second reading of the EU withdrawal bill coming this week, there’s a lot of speculation about Tory rebels and what amendments might be able to command a majority at committee stage. But there won’t just be rebels on the Tory side. There will be some Labour MPs who will be prepared to defy the party whip in the interests of getting the bill through without any changes. These Labour rebels could be crucial. For every Labour rebel, will cancel out a Tory one. It doesn’t matter if Anna Soubry votes against the government, if Kate Hoey votes with it. One minister closely involved with the bill told me last

What the papers say: Why a reshuffle isn’t the answer for the PM

Britain will have to pay some kind of Brexit bill to leave the EU, accepts the Sun. But that shouldn’t mean having to ‘pay a penny more than is due’. The Sunday Times reported yesterday that Theresa May is considering offering £50bn to keep Brussels happy. The Sun has a simple message: we hope that Brexit secretary David Davis is telling the truth when he describes such reports as nonsense. It’s not only the PM who comes under pressure in the Sun’s editorial today; the paper also takes aim at Brexit chief negotiator Michel Barnier for saying the UK needs ‘educating’ about the price of leaving the EU. ‘Perhaps some

How much pain are Brexiteers prepared to inflict on us?

When this magazine endorsed Brexit, it did so in typically trenchant and elegant fashion. ‘Out and into the world’ we said. The central thesis of The Spectator’s case for Leave was that the European Union has become a parody of itself, a sclerotic, irredeemably unreformable, set of institutions that are, at some core, fundamental, level intrinsically incompatible with this country’s instincts, traditions, and future. Even so, that case, forceful though it was and certainly hardly without merit, still suffered from the wishful thinking that has, alas, been so typical of so many Brexiteers. Britain’s departure would, we wrote, ‘show reform-minded Europeans that theirs is not a lost cause’ though how

What did Theresa May mean by that?

Even some senior figures in Downing Street were unaware that Theresa May was going to say she wanted to lead the Tories into the next election, I write in the Sun this morning. The Prime Minister’s statement took Westminster by surprise. But even inside Number 10 there are doubts as to how seriously to take what she said. Indeed, I haven’t yet spoken to anyone who is genuinely convinced that she will lead the Tories into the next general election campaign. (Tory MPs were so calm about what May said precisely because they don’t think it is actually going to happen.) I think it is fair to say that May’s

Britain’s Brexit team must call Barnier’s bluff

There is a growing perception that Britain is floundering in its EU negotiations, with a professional team from Brussels running rings around our bumbling amateurs. It is an idea that is being put about by the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, who this week appealed for Britain to begin ‘negotiating seriously’. As he has found out, the strange dynamic of British public debate at present means that EU spin is repeated uncritically by those hostile to Brexit. It can seem, at times, as if we are in the grip of hysteria normally seen during the final days of an election campaign. This is not to say that the British side

Blackmail and kisses: the Brexit week

It’s been a busy week for Brexit, with David Davis and Michel Barnier going head-to-head in Brussels, and Theresa May and Liam Fox heading to Japan to try and kick-start a trade deal. Here’s how the week unfolded: 1. UK-Japan trade deal lined up: In spite of predictions to the contrary, Theresa May won reassurance from Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that Britain would benefit from a facsimile version of the trade deal being negotiated between Japan and the EU. This could be the first of a series of ‘cut and paste’ bilateral trade deals which the government wants to establish with countries which already have trade agreements with the EU –

Where will the real trouble come from on the EU Withdrawal Bill?

Things may be rather awkward for David Davis in Brussels at the moment, but at least he doesn’t need to worry too much about what’s going on in the Commons. The EU Withdrawal Bill starts its second reading debate this Thursday, with the big vote on whether it will pass to Committee stage, and how long that next stage will be, on Monday 11 September. The Tory whips are now confident that there won’t be any trouble from their own side at this stage, with pro-Remain Conservatives planning to table all their amendments at the Committee stage, rather than trying to block the Bill’s progress this week. The Tories who

Are those talking down our chances of prospering post-Brexit ever going to stop?

On Tuesday, the FT lead with a confident headline: May’s Hopes for Tokyo Dashed as Japanese Hold Back of Trade Talks – and quoting a Japanese trade official commenting on the Prime Minister’s visit to Japan by saying ‘I don’t think there will be substantial progress’. It also quoted the president of Japan’s Institute of International Affairs as saying ‘we can’t negotiate until Britain is out of the EU’. Given that at the time the headline was written May hadn’t even met with the Japanese PM Shinzo Abe it seemed a little premature. Yet needless to say it was swallowed whole by Guardian deputy editor Paul Johnson who tweeted: ‘May

Call Barnier’s bluff

There is a growing perception that Britain is floundering in its EU negotiations, with a professional team from Brussels running rings around our bumbling amateurs. It is an idea that is being put about by the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, who this week appealed for Britain to begin ‘negotiating seriously’. As he has found out, the strange dynamic of British public debate at present means that EU spin is repeated uncritically by those hostile to Brexit. It can seem, at times, as if we are in the grip of hysteria normally seen during the final days of an election campaign. This is not to say that the British side

Neither May nor Corbyn will fight the next election

I’ve been arguing since June that it is at least possible that Theresa May could remain in office longer than the Westminster village consensus dictated, so I’m not too surprised by her statement of intent in Japan. Besides, what else could she say? Like most people, I still don’t expect her to fight the next election, but if she does manage the sort of transformative dogged resurrection I wrote about in June, it could just be possible. For now though, what will hold her in place will be not so much her own talents (whatever they may be) but her party’s fear of confronting the huge and possibly existential questions

Theresa May’s vow to fight the next election changes nothing

Theresa May’s ability to survive the summer has emboldened her to stay on in Downing Street and fight the next election. That, at least, is what is being read into the Prime Minister’s remarks during her trip to Japan that she is in it ‘for the long term’. In fact, while it might seem that another dose of mountain air has strengthened the PM’s resolve, little has changed about May’s plan for the future. And by saying that she isn’t quitting any time soon, the PM is just stating the obvious. In the days after the election, Theresa May told MPs: I will serve as long as you want me.

May’s opponents are the mad and the bad

I first met Theresa May, or met her properly, way back in the last century. I’d been invited to speak at a constituency dinner for Maidenhead Conservatives on a Saturday night, and sat at her table. She was with her husband, Philip; I remember only my suspicion that he didn’t desperately want to be there. Of her I remember the pallor, and a certain shyness; but the couple were pleasant and welcoming to me, and as I’m not one to pump people for political news and gossip, and she isn’t one to volunteer such things, this was not the sort of evening that would have prompted an entry in the

Theresa May’s great comeback is now underway

Theresa May has always made her holidays sound as sensible and lacking in exoticism as she is. But something strange happens to the Prime Minister when she takes a break. After her last break, she decided she wanted a snap election. Now she’s back from the three-week holiday that was supposed to help the Conservative party calm down, and she’s declaring that she is here ‘for the long term’ and that she does want to fight the next election for the Conservatives. Her colleagues had urged her to take a long break this summer. They might now start getting a little suspicious when their leader next starts talking about some