Airports

When the history comes to be written of Britain’s descent from a democracy to a krytocracy, the story of Heathrow’s third runway will mark an important point. Is there anyone who really believes that either today’s decision by the government to make Heathrow its preferred option, or the parliamentary vote in perhaps a year’s time, will really be the last word on the matter? It is already 67 years since extra runways to the north of the Bath Road were first proposed for London Airport. It might well be another 67 years before the legal challenges have concluded. Never have quite so many interests been lined up to challenge in the courts a decision which, until fairly recent times, would have been accepted as a political decision.

Hinkley Point — for all its flaws and the whiffs of suspicion around its Chinese investors — has finally received Downing Street’s blessing. Meanwhile, ministers hold the party line that High Speed 2 will go ahead according to plan, backed by news that the project has already bought £2 billion worth of land; and investors hunt for shares in the construction sector that might benefit from the multi-billion-pound infrastructure spree widely expected in Chancellor Philip Hammond’s autumn statement. But still no decision on a new airport runway for London — the one piece of digger work, short of tunnelling under the Atlantic, that would signal Britain’s raging post-Brexit appetite for global business.

We’ve been warned that Brexit could spell the end of cheap travel. But is it really true that Britain voting out of Europe would hit holidaymakers in the pocket? Easyjet’s boss Dame Carolyn McCall said before that Brexit ‘wouldn’t be good for Britain’. And in a company prospectus, the airline warned this year that if Britain votes out in the EU referendum in June, then it could have a ‘material adverse effect’ on the budget airline. But does this hold up to scrutiny? Easyjet says that: ‘The outcome of this decision (in the referendum) could have a material adverse effect on easyJet’s financial condition and results of operations.’ Obviously for passengers, bad financial conditions for a company mean rising ticket prices.

‘Gutless’ is how this morning’s papers are describing the government’s decision to yet again delay the decision on where in the South East to build a new runway. On the Today programme this morning, the Transport Secretary Patrick McLoughlin attempted to explain why the government has changed its mind — noting ‘we could have said we couldn’t have taken this forward at all’: 'I think we’ve made some important movements already. We’ve accepted what Davies says about the need for additional capacity in the South East and we’ve said that we will make a decision on that over the summer'. Most significantly, McLoughlin signalled the government is still toying with expansion at Gatwick.

The Great British Runway final between Heathrow and Gatwick is beginning to look like a game of two halves. The visit of China’s President Xi Jinping is a bonus for the west London team, who can claim that Chinese investors with bulging wallets are more likely to be impressed by landing at an urban mega-airport than an expanded flying club in Sussex. But the Volkswagen emissions scandal has been a gift for Gatwick, because as chief executive Stewart Wingate said: ‘Heathrow’s poor air quality already breaches legal limits and it’s difficult to see how expansion could legally go ahead with the millions of extra car journeys an expanded Heathrow would generate.

Heathrow expansion is one key policy area that is affected by the recent Labour elections. Sadiq Khan’s victory in the London mayoral nomination contest means that the London Labour party will be campaigning against a third runway. Tessa Jowell was tentatively pro-Heathrow but Khan made a pledge during the campaign to oppose a third runway — one that he would find it very hard to renege on. And assuming the bookies are right and Zac Goldsmith is selected as the Conservative candidate, all of the London mayoral candidates will be campaigning against Heathrow expansion (the Greens and Lib Dems are also likely to be against it). The Labour party overall is heading in an anti-Heathrow direction, thanks to the election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader.