Trying to pick winners is a losers’ game
One dark evening in October 1994, I was standing in a small meeting room that faced on to Fleet Street, waiting for my last interview before I could escape into the rainy streets. Then a young trader strode in and asked me an unforgettably difficult question: why should Goldman Sachs — for that is where I had applied for a job — bother to spend money training a raw graduate like me to become an investment analyst when it could probably make better returns with a trading programme run by a computer? In light of the awful performance of the investment management industry over the last year and a half, that question has particular pertinence today. It has been debated among finance professionals and academics for many years.