Any other business

Trying to pick winners is a losers’ game

One dark evening in October 1994, I was standing in a small meeting room that faced on to Fleet Street, waiting for my last interview before I could escape into the rainy streets. Then a young trader strode in and asked me an unforgettably difficult question: why should Goldman Sachs — for that is where I had applied for a job — bother to spend money training a raw graduate like me to become an investment analyst when it could probably make better returns with a trading programme run by a computer? In light of the awful performance of the investment management industry over the last year and a half, that question has particular pertinence today. It has been debated among finance professionals and academics for many years.

Standing Room | 27 June 2009

Logging on to a university homepage I noticed that the first thing it flags up — breaking news — is that they’re installing a £56,000 digital satellite TV system which will ‘transform’ the way students access multilingual news and information from around the world. Apparently the purchase of Exterity IPTV represents the Language Centre’s biggest-ever investment in technology for learning and teaching since it was established in 1994 and is ‘available to staff and students registered with the self-access area, who use it to improve their foreign language skills’. Personally I would have used the word ‘within’ as opposed to ‘registered with’ but hey, what do I know?

Does the Bank of England deserve more power?

Critics of Gordon Brown’s ‘tripartite’ regulatory structure want authority restored to Threadneedle Street, says Richard Northedge. Critics of Gordon Brown’s ‘tripartite’ regulatory structure want authority restored to Threadneedle Street, says Richard Northedge. But is the Bank’s track record tarnished? The simplistic initial analysis of the financial crisis — that the tripartite oversight structure of the Treasury, the Financial Services Authority and the Bank of England had failed — has developed over two years into a more complex argument.

Standing Room | 20 June 2009

I have the fear. The fear wakes me up at 3 a.m. and for a split second I forget what it is exactly that I’m frightened of. And then I remember. I am a mother and one of my children is off travelling and is on the other side of the world. In the still of the night I prioritise The List. I practise the breathing techniques Betty Parsons taught me when I was first pregnant 24 years ago. The ineffectual huffs and puffs that were supposed to transcend pain. The List catalogues ‘worst case scenarios’ and I systematically shuffle my top five in order of anxiety. I have become the peri-menopausal, female Charles Highway of irrational angst. While The Rachel Papers were concerned with getting the girl, my list deals with how to let her go. I try to rationalise the fear.

Setanta: the Gordon Brown of sports broadcasting

David Crow says the Irish-based football channel — like the Prime Minister — looked a winner during the boom years but failed to attract fans and will struggle to survive You have to hand it to Michael O’Rourke and Leonard Ryan, founders of sports broadcaster Setanta. Three weeks ago it was hard to find anyone who thought their firm would still be afloat today. Analysts pointed to annual losses of £100 million; the Scottish Premier League complained of missed rights payments; deadlines loomed for £35 million of fees due to the English Premier League. Fears were reinforced when Deloitte was lined up as administrator and Setanta’s call centre refused to sign up new subscribers, while its website announced ‘technical difficulties’.

The bruiser who fought his way back

History will regard Gerald Ronson as the man who withstood the humiliation of a high-profile trial and conviction, took his punishment without flinching, and returned quietly to his métier of making millions. Speaking from the comfort of his boardroom at Heron, his family’s property empire, the 70-year-old tycoon says, ‘Did I get a black eye, yes; did I take it, yes; and did I come back better than anyone else in the Guinness case? Yes.’ The circumstances were very different when I first met Ronson. This was in 1990, between sessions at Southwark Crown Court. We happened to be travelling in the same lift, he to meet his lawyers, me to file a story. His burly frame was pressed into an ill- fitting suit. He stared fixedly into the distance.

The personal credit crunch

It’s a law of the financial jungle that where there is debt there is desperation and where there is desperation you can sell all manner of dodgy ‘solutions’. Last year, commercial radio stations were full of ads telling us that — thanks to a ‘little-known loophole’ — half our debt could be wiped off if we would just ring the given number. You may even have been cold-called by computers about this fabulous ‘new’ idea. In fact they were just peddling Individual Voluntary Arrangements to the unwary. An IVA is a binding agreement with your creditors under which you pay off a portion of your debts, usually in monthly instalments over five years, in exchange for the writing off of the rest of the debt.

Standing Room | 6 June 2009

It’s always the smallest thing that tips one over the edge. It’s always the smallest thing that tips one over the edge. This week I cracked. I sat on the pavement outside King Edward VII’s hospital and shamelessly sobbed. My husband was ill with septicaemia, and I was desperate to get to him. I was panicked, worried sick and keen to get up to his room to make sure he was all right after an interminable night spent apart. I’d found a parking space — this particular grid of private medical care in the heart of London offers perhaps the last bastion of dependably available parking spaces — and hurriedly began the endless process of pay-parking by telephone.

One day, the kharbouza will be mightier than the Kalashnikov

Afghan farmers can prosper by producing the world’s finest melons, pomegranates and grapes, says Elliot Wilson, but first they must be weaned off growing the opium poppy Modern-day Afghanistan conjures up many fearsome images, from rocket-launchers and retreating Soviet tanks to mujahedin warriors and Taleban zealots. Yet this war-ravaged central Asian state, which has to date repelled every barbarian invader foolish enough to set foot on its dusty red soil, has another, much gentler aspect to its national character. When no one is looking and the men have hung up their Kalashnikovs for the day, many of them attend to their second career: growing melons. And not just any melons. Afghanistan has been producing the world’s finest kharbouza for at least 4,500 years.

Standing Room | 30 May 2009

When I was younger (old habits obviously die hard and you have to forgive me for not automatically writing ‘when I was young’ — it’s just going to take a bit more practice), I used to find a particular greeting card amusing. It was a cartoon of a demented-looking career woman. She had one hand clutching her briefcase and the other was held up to her mouth in exaggerated dismay. The caption read: ‘Oh my God, I forgot to have children.’ It made me feel quietly smug as I’d remembered to have my three children by the time I was 30 and it was the career I’d opted to shove on to the back burner. I thought I had nothing much to fear at turning 50. It was just another number.

Any Other Business | 30 May 2009

I don’t give a toss about my MP’s flat, but I’m bloody livid about council tax Next Thursday’s elections have been so overwhelmed by the scandal of Westminster expenses that candidates for the major parties have scarcely shown their faces in my part of the world. And voters, content to fulminate at the daily pageant of shamed MPs on their television screens, don’t much care whether county council and Euro candidates turn up on the doorstep or not. I have not heard a single word of discussion about, say, the balance between left and right groupings in the European parliament — an institution that could be seized by aliens and teleported to Uranus without most people in Britain even noticing.

New wine in old bottles

Lucinda Baring meets Simon Berry, chairman of a 200-year-old company that’s more modern than it looks  Berry Bros & Rudd in St James’s Street epitomises the idea of an old-fashioned wine merchant. Outside, the façade has remained largely unchanged for centuries. Inside, the panelling, desks and uneven wooden floor transport you to an era long gone. And yet this venerable appearance belies the efficient mechanisms of a much more modern business. Other family-run wine merchants have been less successful in updating their brand. Lay & Wheeler, a 150-year-old family business very similar to Berry Bros and perhaps their closest competitor, was bought by Majestic in March, and Avery’s of Bristol, established in 1793, is now owned by Laithwaites.

Standing Room | 23 May 2009

I am not one of those who believe that God made the highways solely in order for motorists to inherit the earth. But any milk of human kindness flowing through my veins curdles when I am driving on the Embankment during the early morning rush hour. I have to make the big sacrifice of not listening to Nick Ferrari’s breakfast show, since it requires total concentration and nerves of steel to avoid the hordes of cyclists coming at me from all angles. Top-gear city cyclists are a law unto themselves. They’re a hardcore bunch — the very antithesis of a benevolent Boris or those daffy Mrs Tiggy-Winkle handwoven folk who choose to cycle only when the sun is shining and they’ve bought something pretty to put in their baskets.

Brown’s nemesis awaits — and his name is Brian

Who will finally sit Gordon Brown down with a bottle of whisky, a loaded revolver and a copy of his own book on courage, and tell him the game is up? You might imagine the task would fall to Jack Straw, flanked by a couple of union bosses. In fact, it’s more likely to be three men you’ve never heard of: Frank Gill, Arnaud Mares and Brian Coulton. Working respectively for the ratings agencies Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch, this trio have the job of deciding whether the UK can pay back the hundreds of millions of pounds Brown’s government is borrowing every day through the gilts market in order to keep afloat. One day soon, it may be their job to declare that it can’t.

It’s Groundhog Day for Obama’s economic team

In Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, there lives a fat rodent called Phil whose job it is in the middle of every winter to tell us how much longer we must suffer through the cold and dark until spring. Phil is a groundhog and his annual prediction is taken very seriously. There is even a celebrated film about him, starring Bill Murray. But this year Phil has been usurped by Barack Obama and Ben Bernanke. The President and his bearded Federal Reserve chief emerge daily from their offices like Phil from his hollow tree stump to tell us that ‘green shoots’ are poking through the hard and frozen earth despite obvious signs that winter, economically speaking at least, will be with us for a long time to come.

The business of politics

As London’s mayor, Sir Alan, you’d be a mere apprentice A recent poll placed Sir Alan Sugar as the leading independent candidate to be the next mayor of London. His statement that ‘...observing the past mayor, Livingstone, and Boris, the current one, I’m confident that it would be a walk in the park for me’, tempted me, just for a moment, to wish him success — until I realised the likely effect on London. Why is it that so many successful businessmen think government is a part-time job and something they can handle with ease? Is that why so few have succeeded? It is for others to say whether or not I succeeded in government: at least I was able to choose the time of my own departure without the press hounding me out.

Standing Room | 16 May 2009

Ideally I only ever want to come across the word ‘system’ when it’s used by an astronaut and sandwiched between ‘all’ and ‘go’. Ideally I only ever want to come across the word ‘system’ when it’s used by an astronaut and sandwiched between ‘all’ and ‘go’. ‘All systems go!’ has a chirpy, optimistic feel. Eliminate ‘all’ and ‘go’ however and you’re left with no hope. I know I never want to hear ‘the system’ uttered by anyone sitting in front of a company computer or in a position of authority. ‘I’m afraid the system won’t allow me to,’ is nothing short of a polite brush-off.

The British Bill Gates finds a formula for bad times

David Crow meets Mike Lynch, the computer scientist whose firm, Autonomy, makes software that knows how humans think — and can spot when they’re committing fraud The plush Piccadilly offices of Autonomy are decorated with complex mathematical equations, written in buzzing neon lights and frosted onto glass doors. Although the formulas underpin technology that would have been unimaginable 20 years ago, they were first penned by an 18th-century vicar, Thomas Bayes, who spent his life trying to prove the existence of God through mathematics. ‘He never succeeded,’ Autonomy founder and chief executive Mike Lynch tells me, ‘although he probably has an answer by now.

The monetary policy committee

I’m your man for the job, Chancellor HM Treasury has placed an advert in the Economist looking for a new external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, the body that sets UK interest rates, to succeed David Blanchflower. I have decided that it is my duty to apply and have therefore sent this letter to Alistair Darling, who will make the decision. Dear Mr Darling, I would like to apply for the vacant post of external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee. Admittedly, beyond a grade A at ‘O’ level, I don’t have any formal qualifications in economics, but your advert does not specify these as essential.

Standing Room | 9 May 2009

Unlike the swine flu hysteria currently gripping the globe, the affluenza pandemic of the Nineties and early Noughties (first identified by the clinical psychologist Oliver James) was a virulent, socially transmitted disease most of us subliminally hankered to catch. ‘ Unlike the swine flu hysteria currently gripping the globe, the affluenza pandemic of the Nineties and early Noughties (first identified by the clinical psychologist Oliver James) was a virulent, socially transmitted disease most of us subliminally hankered to catch. ‘Bring it on’, was the nation’s great battle cry as we loaded the guns of avarice with alacrity; conveniently forgetting that the bullets of greed have a nasty habit of ricocheting back into society.