Any other business

Cornering the cocoa market may rob us of much needed moments of pleasure

Martin Vander Weyer's Any Other Business A London hedge fund, Armajaro, has cornered the market in cocoa, for which prices have already risen by 150 per cent over two years. Armajaro is reported to have paid £650 million to take delivery of 240,000 tonnes of beans, all the cocoa there is in Europe in fact, and no one seems to know what they plan to do with it — other than reap a huge profit. This is the sort of trade that earned hedge funds a bad name two years ago, when grain and soy prices soared — though investment banks, which regard ‘soft commodities’ as one more asset class for their traders to punt around in, also had a slice of the action.

Should you put Ocado on your shopping list? Remember what Adam Smith said

Martin Vander Weyer's Any Other Business The flotation of a business that has carved a big slice of a fast-growth consumer market within less than a decade of its start-up ought to be a cause for celebration: an example of capitalism doing what it’s supposed to do in support of entrepreneurs; an affirmation that markets are back in business after their nervous breakdown two years ago. But the share offering for the online grocer Ocado, for which a price will be struck on 21 July, has provoked more of a City brawl than a champagne reception. Some fund managers are enraged by the indicative pricing, which values Ocado at up to £1.3 billion even though it lost £26 million last year on £402 million of sales.

The wrong Blanchflower: Jackie would have understood the need to cut now

Martin Vander Weyer's Any Other Business I once heard an after-dinner speech by Jackie Blanchflower, brother of the great Spurs captain Danny. Jackie also played professional football, for Manchester United, but his career was cut short by his injuries in the 1958 Munich air crash, in which eight of his fellow ‘Busby Babes’ died. Thereafter he scratched a living as a publican, a bookie and an accounts clerk, and by the time I saw him, not long before he died in 1998, he looked so knackered that I wondered whether he would be capable of standing to speak. But he did, and delivered an unforgettably funny and poignant account of the rotten hand he had been dealt.

Time-travelling on the Northern Line in search of the Stone Parlour

Martin Vander Weyer's Any Other Business I’m standing on a hot platform at Tottenham Court Road, waiting for the relief of the momentary breeze that precedes an approaching train. I’m staring at a T-Mobile poster featuring people dressed as nuns at what looks like a karaoke party. And I’m thinking: do I really want to write another essay about the imagined pain of cuts to come, or the right way to regulate banks, or the prospects for growth in 2013-14? And more important, in a heat wave and a mood of post-World Cup gloom, do you really want to read one? Then the air moves, the train rattles in, and I see that it’s bound for the High Barnet terminus of the Northern Line. And the mission of Any Other Business for this week comes to me: I must find the Stone Parlour.

Time to invest in the UK again — or to spread your money abroad?

Jonathan Davis thinks this week’s Budget will prove positive for British investors, but that it’s increasingly important to take a global view of markets and currencies There was nothing in George Osborne’s emergency Budget on Tuesday to contradict the idea that the transition from Labour to Conservative (or in this case Conservative-led) governments tends to be good for the investing classes. The fall of the Callaghan government in 1979 was followed after an initial period of uncertainty by the start of an 18-year bull market that was resilient enough to survive two nasty recessions, the 1987 crash and our undignified exit from the ERM in 1992.

Small can be beautiful in difficult times

Uncertainty reigns among UK investors. Will this week’s Budget cuts wither the green shoots of growth? Whatever happened to safety in blue chips when BP’s dividends can vanish into an oil slick? Where’s a stock-picker to turn? If the words ‘small cap’ don’t send you rigid with fright, then there are good reasons to look towards AIM, London’s market for listed smaller companies. You’ll find businesses there that are an unusually good bet in tough times. And you’ll find some that are sufficiently global, despite their modest size, not to flinch at a prolonged UK downturn. Long time AIM watcher Tom Bulford, author of the Red Hot Penny Shares newsletter, identifies the key time to invest in an AIM-listed company.

Despite BP, high yields are still worth chasing

Alex Brummer says blue chip stocks that pay a handsome stream of dividends are — usually — a reliable bet First, I have a serious confession to make. For as long as I can remember, my informal advice to any UK investor considering a share purchase — particularly during the volatile years of the ‘great panic’ followed by the ‘great recession’ — has been to buy BP. In a world ever more desperate for energy, the oil price had only one direction to travel over the long haul and that is upwards. BP looked particularly well placed to benefit because of its exposure (around 40 per cent of its income) to the United States and its uncanny knack for making discoveries in safe political neighbourhoods from the Gulf of Mexico to Alaska.

A VAT rise makes sense — and is the least painful sting in this bold Budget

Martin Vander Weyer's Any Other Business I wrote here in February that I did not believe the Conservatives’ pretence of having ‘absolutely no plans to increase VAT’, and that, having examined this fiercely complex issue at some length with an ice pack on my head, I had come down in favour of a VAT rise — as indeed had the experts at the Institute of Directors, who wrote: ‘The VAT rate should be increased to 20 per cent, in order to allow for more substantial and rapid tax reductions elsewhere than would otherwise be possible.’ That has now come to pass, and despite the howls of protest in the House of Commons when the Chancellor announced it, I’m sticking to my guns.

In banking, bigness is a sign of trouble ahead. Keep a wary eye on Santander

Martin Vander Weyer's Any Other Business Santander is a port in northern Spain with a population the size of Swindon’s. It is also the eurozone’s largest banking group, an institution that has far outgrown its origins to become the owner, in Britain, of Abbey, Alliance & Leicester and the branch network of the crippled Bradford & Bingley. Having spent more than £35 billion on acquisitions around the world in recent years, it is currently spending another £2 billion to buy 318 Royal Bank of Scotland branches, has just spent £1.7 billion to buy out Bank of America’s stake in a Mexican joint venture, and is hoping to pick up some more branches in Germany.

Who says we can’t replace grossly overpaid top executives for less?

Martin Vander Weyer's Any Other Business I’m baffled why anyone should be offended by the £275,000 salary paid to John Fingleton, the director of the Office of Fair Trading who was declared last week to be Britain’s highest-paid public servant. Even if Fingleton’s wad represents double the prime minister’s, it is barely more than one tenth of the bundle taken home by Adam Crozier in his final year as chief executive of the Royal Mail, which — despite Vince Cable’s declared intention to press ahead with part-privatisation — is still wholly in the state sector. The Teflon-coated Crozier, who came to the Royal Mail from the Football Association and has moved on to become chief executive of ITV, collected £633,000 in salary, a £1.

The City warmed to David Laws because he knew how to play the bonus game

Martin Vander Weyer's Any Other Business ‘Does anyone remember David Laws?’ a former City colleague asked me during the brief interlude between the Lib Dem MP’s debut as financial secretary last Monday and his descent into hell on Friday. Judging by the sketchy accounts of his banking career in the weekend papers, with their references to a ‘billion-dollar gamble’ that made him a ‘multimillionaire’, few journalists bothered to track down City sources who really knew him in those days. But in fact he held the same title of managing director of Barclays de Zoete Wedd (BZW, the forerunner of Barclays Capital) that I once held myself.

Unions need a voice and HSBC needs a chairman: I name my candidates

The British trade union movement needs to get a grip on itself. The British trade union movement needs to get a grip on itself. These days, the public associates the brotherhood of organised labour chiefly with the bizarre antics of the highly politicised Unite union, with its warring and tweeting joint general secretaries and its out-of-control airline cabin crew branch hellbent on destroying their own livelihoods by driving BA to bankruptcy in a dispute over travel perks. Yet at a time when jobs are at the top of the political agenda — the impending loss of them in the public sector, the urgent need to generate more of them, with higher skills, especially for young people, in the private sector — the workforce needs an articulate voice.

Don’t blame the hedge funds, they’re less culpable than governments

Martin Vander Weyer's Any Other Business Hedge funds can be accused of many different sins, not least because they operate in many different shapes and forms across the investment universe. As a label, ‘hedge fund’ is so loosely generic that generalising about the sector is almost as pointless as trying to corral it with tighter regulation, as EU finance ministers have been doing this week. Some hedge funds pursue, with brilliant results, the contrarian hunches of individual fund managers. Some cheat by trading on insider information or false rumours. Some are ‘long-only’, meaning that they buy and keep things that they expect to appreciate in value. Some are habitual short-sellers, seeking to profit from things they expect to depreciate.

Wolfpack? Markets have been behaving more like a truckload of stolen puppies

Martin Vander Weyer's Any Other Business ‘Why do we care what the markets think?’ asked the comedian Jeremy Hardy on Radio 4’s News Quiz last Friday. Whingeing leftie though he may be, Hardy had a point. ‘The markets’ were identified by spokesmen of all three political parties as the invisible presence at their secret post-election negotiating tables. A solution would have to be found ‘before markets open on Monday’ — and when it wasn’t, markets would still have to be reassured ‘very soon’.

Can the Greek bailout contain the oil slick of sovereign debt?

Martin Vander Weyer's Any Other Business The downside of globalisation is contagion. That was the lesson of the Icelandic ash that damaged the livelihoods of Kenyan rose-growers, and it’s the lesson of this week’s Greek bailout. The deal that will see Greece’s euro partners stump up E80 billion, plus E30 billion from the IMF, touches millions of people who have never given a thought to the parlous state of Greek public finances. Crude oil blipped up on ‘buoyant sentiment’ while the Mexican peso looked perky, reflecting a view that riskier assets might be back in fashion.

Should Osborne start planning a second career in soft furnishings?

Martin Vander Weyer's Any Other Business I’ve come up with a slogan to revive flagging Conservative canvassers — and an encouraging report from the doorsteps. My man in the housing estates of suburban York, of which I wrote two weeks ago, told me ‘the Labour vote is collapsing’ two days before reporters started using that phrase on Radio 4. He also said he was still meeting large numbers of ‘don’t knows’. So there’s everything to play for. But no one could say the Tory campaign has gone according to plan — and that fact is adding new venom to criticism of George Osborne, who is the campaign’s director as well as would-be chancellor.

If hubris is a commodity, Wall Street’s ‘vampire squid’ has a very long position

Martin Vander Weyer's Any Other Business There’s a distinct whiff of unfinished business about the current assault on Goldman Sachs, which stands accused of fraud by the US Securities & Exchange Commission and of ‘moral bankruptcy’ by Gordon Brown — you know, that Scottish bloke who sometimes stands on platforms quite close to Nick Clegg. When the leading Wall Street investment bank was dubbed last year ‘a giant vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity’ by Rolling Stone columnist Matt Taibbi, the phrase resonated around the global blogosphere: everyone knew exactly what he meant.

How a slammed door made me wonder whether the Tories could ever win again

Martin Vander Weyer's Any Other Business Bored by the election already? If you want to avoid it completely, I suggest a three-week holiday in scenic Bishkek, capital of Kyrgyzstan, where the national dish is boiled horse, the national pastime is bride-kidnapping, and they still change governments the old-fashioned way, with a little help from their friends in the Kremlin. But if you merely dislike watching our own politicians sniping at each other on television, and yearn for a form of debate that addresses real-life issues, I recommend signing on to help your local candidate, of whichever party you prefer, in door-to-door campaigning.

Will Asia ever match the cultural magnificence of Europe?

It is all very well saying Asia is replacing Europe as the prime creator of wealth, but is there any evidence that new superpowers like China and India will be able to supply the cultural magnificence which once accompanied European productivity? We take European art for granted. But its profusion and variety, and the thoroughness of its penetration into every aspect of life, are unequalled. I have been repeatedly to the new medieval and Renaissance galleries at the Victoria and Albert Museum since they opened. Many wonderful artefacts never before seen, or at any rate never properly displayed, are now on view in all their opulence. They overflow with objects which testify sometimes to the genius but always to the ingenuity, invention, skill and taste of the craftsmen who created them.