Read about the latest political news, views and analysis
12 min listen
After a bruising few days, Boris Johnson remains bullish suggesting his intentions to stay in Downing Street for a third term. Is this rattling Tory MPs?Also on the podcast, a Cabinet reshuffle may be approaching. Who is under threat and why? Isabel Hardman is joined by Katy Balls and James Forsyth.Produced by Natasha Feroze.
Swimming's governing body, Fina, made a wise and sensible decision last week. It declared that transwomen were ineligible to take part in elite female competitions if they have experienced any part of male puberty. There were caveats, but it was a huge stride in the right direction. It was a ruling that was fair to female swimmers. But not everyone is happy. Diving gold medalist Tom Daley is 'furious'. Speaking at last night’s British LGBT Awards, Daley said: You know, like most queer people, anyone that’s told that they can’t compete or can’t do something they love just because of who they are, it’s not on. It’s something I feel really strongly about. Giving trans people the chance to share their side.
After the excitement of the Platinum Jubilee, complete with emotional tributes to ‘mummy’, Prince Charles might have been forgiven for wishing to avoid the limelight for the summer. But the heir to the throne is once again in the news. Following the recent revelation that he is said to find the government’s policy of flying refugees to Rwanda ‘appalling’, the prince is in the headlines with a story that is less likely to appeal to the progressives who briefly kept company with him. Once again, Charles has been embroiled in an incident (‘scandal’ is not quite the word being used at the moment). Once more, his basic judgement has been called into question.
When General Alexander Dvornikov was made overall commander of Russia’s forces in April, it looked as if the amateurishness and incoordination of the early stage of the Ukraine war might be being addressed. Now, though, Dvornikov is not around, and a new commander may shape a savage new phase of operations. In recent days, the Russian defence ministry announced that Colonel General Alexander Lapin was in command of the Central Group of Forces in Ukraine, while General Sergei Surovikin was heading the Southern Group of Forces during the invasion. Of Dvornikov, who has not been seen for weeks, there was no mention, and the British Ministry of Defence suggests he has been removed from his post.
The overturning of Roe v. Wade is an American story, and a global one. What the hell – it's asked with some justice – does it have to do with the rest of us? In part because, as is sometimes said, when America sneezes the UK catches a cold. But also because the intoxicated global reaction to what, looked at from one angle, is a narrow point of US constitutional law, shows us something about where we’re at. As someone generally of the liberal tribe I find myself slightly out of kilter with my natural allies on this subject. I'm as horrified as the next bloke in a 'this is what a feminist looks like' T-shirt at the 'trigger laws' which at a stroke will curtail women’s bodily autonomy across huge swathes of a supposedly civilised country.
The loss of Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton has shaken the Conservative party. But governments like Thatcher’s and Cameron’s have suffered mid-term blues before and bounced back to win elections. Is there anything really that different about what is happening now that will stop Boris Johnson making a similar recovery? In my view, the answer is yes. The situation now facing the party is different, and not simply a mid-term grumble. The first difference is that people of both places voted the way they did not because of a general discontent with the government or its policies, but because of a focused fury with the Conservative leader. The top argument chosen in a J.L.
When Boris Johnson was campaigning for Brexit, he placed much importance on World Trade Organisation rules. The WTO, he’d argue, had an internationally-recognised free trade rule book - which was ready and waiting to be used as a substitute to the European Union system. This is why he could face some very difficult questions next week if he decides to extend tariffs on steel imports in a way that some think flout WTO rules. Last year the PM ignored advice from the independent Trade Remedies Authority – a trade watchdog which his government created post-Brexit – which wanted him to ditch some of the tariffs currently in place that, they said, weren’t making a meaningful difference anyway.
Since the Tories lost not one but two by-elections on Friday, ministers have been rather quiet on the issue of Boris Johnson's leadership. Where they have been more forthcoming, however, is tactical voting. Sajid Javid told the Daily Mail that Labour and the Liberal Democrats must 'come clean' over whether they have an electoral pact – arguing tactical voting had been on an ‘industrial scale’ when it came to the Tories' heavy losses in Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton. It's the prospect of mass tactical voting that is increasing nerves among Tory MPs who had thought they had relatively safe seats.
Brandon Lewis – ‘We all have responsibility’ for historic defeat Thursday saw a double defeat for the Conservatives that will not be forgotten any time soon. In Tiverton and Honiton, the Liberal Democrats managed to overturn a majority of over 24,000 votes, making it the biggest by-election defeat in British history. However, even that does not seem to have dampened the Prime Minister’s spirits, and he has claimed to have his sights already set on a third term in office. Sophie Raworth asked the Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis about whether this was a realistic goal: https://www.youtube.com/watch?
There are plenty of losers from this week’s railway strikes, not least the legions of commuters who found themselves stuck. But one clear winner is emerging: RMT boss Mick Lynch. Lynch has been feted for his straight-talking media appearances and composure under fire. He’s clever, witty and funny. It also helps that he has made fools out of some of those media darlings some British viewers love to hate. It’s surely only a matter of time before he pops up on Have I Got News For You. But perhaps his greatest asset isn’t what he offers but who he isn’t. What sets him apart is how different he is from Bob Crow, the firebrand former general secretary of the RMT. Crow was, famously, the combative last but one leader of the RMT.
Socialists like me are supposed to always support industrial action. But reports that doctors, teachers, local government employees and just about everyone in the public sector are considering joining rail workers on strike have failed to gladden my proletarian heart. Why? Because the reality is that none of these workers have much of a case to make for bringing Britain to a halt. Don’t get me wrong: strikes aimed at improving the wages and conditions of low-paid workers are a legitimate way of ensuring demands are met. Socialists should always back workers when they are driven to strike because they are being treated unacceptably. But is this really what is happening in Britain today? I’m not convinced.
It's not just Ed Miliband making a comeback under Sir Keir: now the former Labour leader's biggest fan has signed up to join the Starmer army too. Back in 2015, 'Milifandom' briefly swept the internet when it looked like the Doncaster MP could defeat David Cameron in that year's general election. The cult movement was started by then 17 year-old Abby Tomlinson, who became quite a star during the campaign, following a spat with Louise Mensch and a number of opinion pieces written about her strange obsession. Now in her mid-twenties, she has since finished school and university and done stints at Hope not Hate and left-wing news site JOE, which had a run-in with Labour HQ during the Batley by-election last year.
It's a common trap: a Prime Minister is asked whether he or she will fight the next election as leader. To which there are only two answers: to say 'yes,' or announce your resignation. But - here's the trap - saying 'yes' can be easily translated into Thatcher-style declaration that you want to "go on and on" - in Boris Johnson's case, the papers say he wants to last to the 2030s. Not a timescale he mentioned. But he did talk about a "third term" and is blaming his by-election defeats on voters not thinking enough about the future. ‘If you look at the by-elections, people were absolutely fed up about hearing about things that I had had stuffed up,’ he said. ‘An endless churn of stuff. What they wanted to hear was: what is this guy doing?
Goodbye then, Roe v Wade. The US Supreme Court’s decision this week to overturn its ruling on abortion will effectively ban the practice across swathes of America. Millions of Americans are angry; politicians have been quick to proclaim their shock and dismay. But this is Britain, home to some of Europe's most liberal abortion laws, where self-aggrandisement and West Wing syndrome mean that our own virtue-signalling politicians can't resist shoehorning themselves into the debate. Thus far only one elected politician appears to have publicly expressed any kind of support for the decision: Scott Benton, the unorthodox MP from Blackpool South.
13 min listen
Isabel Hardman talks to James Forsyth and James Johnson of the J.L. Partners polling company, about how much the Conservative party has to fear from tactical votes at the next election.
Next week Putin is due to meet Alyaksandr Lukashenka, self-proclaimed president of Belarus, for the sixth time since the invasion of Ukraine. This will also be the first time in three years that they have met in Belarus. Much hooha is usually made by the Russian and Belarusian press of their meetings. There is always a ‘happy families’-style photoshoot: Lukashenka towering over Putin, grasping his hand in his meaty fist, looking like Laurel and Hardy’s grotesque reincarnation. According to official readouts, their long meetings tend to cover a variety of mundane topics: agricultural output, the state of their economies, general commitments of mutual support.
The Conservative party has a rather funereal air about it this morning, following this week’s two bruising by-election losses in Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton, which saw the party get walloped in both the 'red wall' north and true blue south. And since the losses it appears that Tory animosity towards the PM has been building up. Two former Tory party leaders, William Hague and Michael Howard, have now said that cabinet ministers should pressure Boris Johnson to leave No. 10, with Howard telling the World at One that: ‘The party and more importantly the country would be better off under new leadership. Members of the cabinet should very carefully consider their positions.
The Tiverton and Wakefield by-elections are, of course, shatteringly bad for the Conservatives and Boris Johnson. They should finally destroy any illusions Conservatives hold about the PM’s electoral appeal. As I and several others have often pointed out, Boris is not a Heineken politician and hasn’t been one since the middle of the last decade. Analysis of by-election results is often bad. In the minutes and hours after the result, commentators scramble to explain what local results mean for national politics, in a crowded field where political actors are doing their best to skew the narrative in their own interests. That being so, I’m not going to try to tell you what Tiverton and Wakefield mean for Johnson’s future or the next general election.
Mick Lynch has become something of a break-out star since his round of media interviews on Tuesday. The boss of the Rail and Maritime Transport union has won many fans on the left for his uncompromising views on the industrial action which brought chaos across the country this week. But it seems that, for all his undoubted media savvy, it's far from clear whether Lynch's case has had any cut-through with the public. For a new poll of 1,500 adults for The Spectator by Redfield and Wilton on Wednesday found that, a day after the union walkout, 41 per cent opposed and 32 per cent support the rail workers’ strike to achieve pay rises in line with inflation. This is up from 1 June when 35 per cent supported and 29 per cent opposed the strike.
The Tories took a serious beating in Thursday’s by-elections. Whilst Boris Johnson and his government refuse to take responsibility for the big issue of the day – inflation – and fail to convey any meaningful central purpose to their government (‘levelling up’ being clearly nothing more than an empty soundbite) they will continue to face huge electoral defeats. It really is as simple as that. When I say the government needs to take responsibility for inflation the immediate question is: ‘So how would you get it down?’ But that is the wrong place to begin. The first thing the government needs to do is to take political and policy responsibility for inflation.