James Johnson was a senior research and strategy adviser to Theresa May between 2016-2019. He is co-founder of
the research company J.L. Partners
Eric Swalwell has dropped out of the race for California governor after a series of sexual misconduct allegations. Republicans may be celebrating the demise of the prominent Democrat, but they should hold off on the champagne for now. Swalwell’s exit only increases the chance of two Democrats moving through to the run-off, depriving the GOP
But I’d be surprised if we are even still talking about it a year from now
From our UK edition
15 min listen
Tony Blair is making waves in Westminster today after his institute published a report on net zero that appears to undermine Ed Miliband and Labour’s green agenda. In his foreword – while not directly critical of the UK government – he encouraged governments around the world to reconsider the cost of net zero. Many have
The least accurate polls are getting the most airtime
From our UK edition
14 min listen
The future of Ukraine is being decided in a meeting between US and Russian diplomats in Saudi Arabia today. So far, we understand that America will insist that Ukraine is recognised as a sovereign nation, but NATO membership remains off the table. Meanwhile, European leaders have been cut out of the conversations. In response, they
From our UK edition
13 min listen
After the news this week that Nicola Sturgeon will step aside as leader of the Scottish National Party, can the cause of Scottish independence survive without her? James Heale speaks to Katy Balls and James Johnson, former Downing Street pollster and co-founder of JL Partners.
From our UK edition
Trump is headed to the White House. As I write, that is the consensus of almost all political experts, including the New York Times’ Nate Cohn, who puts Trump’s chance of victory at greater than 95 per cent. Trump is set to pick up at least one – and possibly all three – of Michigan,
From our UK edition
It’s Kamala. The result of the last 48 hours, capping off one of the most eventful weeks in American political history, has been to all but confirm Kamala Harris will be the Democratic nominee for president this November. More than half the delegates at the upcoming DNC in Chicago have pledged their support to her,
From our UK edition
From the moment the Conservatives called this summer election they seemed doomed: Sunak had failed to deliver on his five promises, much of the electorate had given up on him, and Starmer looked set for power. But there still seemed like the possibility of a hung parliament, or perhaps Labour only getting a small majority,
From our UK edition
The tightening looks on. On Tuesday, my polling firm JL Partners published its first campaign poll showing a 12-point Labour lead, down from 15 points at the start of May and 18 points in April. Our data scientist, Callum Hunter, has written for The Spectator on why we are confident our methodology is the right
From our UK edition
Until yesterday there was a fair amount of goodwill towards Rishi Sunak amongst his colleagues. Tory parliamentarians would not have been happy with a defeat in an election forced upon the Prime Minister at the end of the year, but they might have understood it. Most MPs felt the PM had been dealt a dire
From our UK edition
12 min listen
A new YouGov poll has Reform just four points behind the Conservatives. Richard Tice’s party is on 15 per cent, and Rishi Sunak’s party is on 19 per cent. What is driving the Tory decline? Max Jeffery speaks to Katy Balls and to James Johnson of JL Partners.
From our UK edition
14 min listen
New polling from JL Partners shows how Rishi Sunak has changed, in the eyes of the public. They found that while Sunak was initially seen as a direct ‘breath of fresh air’, he is now frequently described as ‘out of touch’, ‘spineless’ and ‘false’. To discuss what went wrong for the PM, James Heale and
From our UK edition
23 min listen
Freddy Gray is joined by pollster James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners. They speak about the upcoming Iowa caucuses, the New Hampshire primary, and whether Trump’s opponents have any chance of beating him. They also discuss the impact of Trump’s trials, and JL Partners’ viral word cloud which both Biden and Trump have been attempting
From our UK edition
13 min listen
The dust has settled after yesterday’s by-election results. Having narrowly avoided a triple by-election defeat there seems to be little sign of Conservative party in-fighting, despite their poor showing. There is however a war of words brewing between the London Labour Party and Kier Starmer who blames Sadiq Khan’s Ulez plan for the failure to
From our UK edition
15 min listen
The local election results so far paint a fairly grim picture for the Conservatives, whilst Labour and the Liberal Democrats have made big gains in key areas. With Starmer in the advantage position ahead of the next general election, how will No. 10 respond? Is there a path for the Tories in 2024? Katy Balls
From our UK edition
11 min listen
Rishi Sunak’s personal poll ratings are on the up, by why don’t the public love Keir Starmer? We talk through the latest polling. And Mark Spencer, now the farming minister, has been cleared by an investigation into whether he made Islamophobic investigations to fellow Tory MP Nus Ghani. Is the row over? Max Jeffery is
From our UK edition
Lee Anderson, the recently-appointed Tory party deputy chairman, has sparked a political row with his comments on capital punishment. ‘Nobody has ever committed a crime after being executed. 100 per cent success rate,’ he said in an interview with The Spectator. Rishi Sunak says he disagrees, and is not in favour of the death penalty.
From our UK edition
12 min listen
Today, Rishi Sunak faced another round of questioning over the two ongoing Tory sleaze scandals. What is it about these stories that infuriate voters, and can the Prime Minister close the chapter on them as he promised to do? Max Jeffery talks to Katy Balls and pollster James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners. Produced by
From our UK edition
The loss of Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton has shaken the Conservative party. But governments like Thatcher’s and Cameron’s have suffered mid-term blues before and bounced back to win elections. Is there anything really that different about what is happening now that will stop Boris Johnson making a similar recovery? In my view, the answer
