Politics

Read about the latest political news, views and analysis

Tuesday

Ross Clark

The rebel MPs don’t know what they want

Was there ever such a principled stand over a such a feeble cause? If today’s Tory rebels were intent on overturning the 2016 referendum result because, in all their conscience, they could support a policy of leaving the EU, I would not agree with what they were doing, but I would have some grudging respect for it. Instead, what is the great issue at stake in today’s vote? Another extension of Article 50 to 31 January. Yep, another three whole months in the EU. But to what purpose? The rebels can’t come up with a more specific demand because they do not know or cannot agree on what they want. Some want to remain, others think we should leave but do not know how.

Nick Cohen

Downing Street has lost the right to be trusted

As a rule, it is naïve to hope that the thuggery of our masters will rebound and the wicked will suffer for their misdeeds. The good don’t end happily and the bad unhappily in modern Westminster. Still, as the Brexit crisis intensifies I am happy to tell you there are a few hopeful signs that the wages of sin are, if not political death, then at least political torture. In a report of the highest significance this morning, Peter Foster of the Daily Telegraph showed that all Boris Johnson’s blustering that giving him a free hand was the only way to get a deal out of the EU was so much bull. (I know, I know, I was shocked too.

Robert Peston

Prepare for Brexit history to be made tonight

Brexit history and constitutional history may be made at 10 tonight. Because the number of Tory rebels is holding firm at around 20. And that means Sir Oliver Letwin’s motion under Standing Order 24, which would have the effect of handing control of business in the Commons to backbenchers tomorrow, could well pass by around five votes. Which in turn means that the Bill to ask EU leaders to delay Brexit until January 31, would almost certainly become law by Sunday night. And that is why Boris Johnson would tomorrow try to force a general election – because he has said he will never ask the EU to delay Brexit beyond October 31. But if all of that happens, there will be bumps on the road.

Steerpike

Watch: Philip Hammond vows to fight any deselection attempt

When Boris Johnson announced that Tory MPs who rebelled against the government this week to stop a no-deal Brexit would be deselected at the next election, the prime minister was clearly hoping that the raised stakes would deter at least some of his colleagues from rebelling. This morning though, it seems that the threat has not worked on the most hardline members of the anti-no deal faction in his party, who are not going down without a fight.

Brendan O’Neill

The silence surrounding grooming gangs

Who is allowed to be part of the #MeToo movement? I ask because on Friday five men were found guilty of horrific sexual crimes against eight girls and yet the case hasn’t trended on Twitter. There have been no hashtags. The girls’ suffering hasn’t been widely talked about. There have been very few declarations of solidarity from feminists. There’s pretty much been silence. It isn’t hard to see why. The problem for the mostly middle-class, well-connected feminists who make up the #MeToo movement is that this case involved both the wrong kind of victim and the wrong kind of perpetrator.

The Spectator

Full list: the Tory MPs rebelling against the government

The full list of Tory MPs who rebelled against the government in tonight's vote is here. This week is shaping up to be the ultimate battle between parliament and Number 10, as rebel MPs attempt to stop a no-deal Brexit in law before parliament is prorogued next week. On Tuesday the rebels are expected to table an emergency motion to seize control of the parliamentary timetable, and if they succeed, they will then put forward an anti-no deal bill and try to rush it through the House of Commons and Lords. It is likely that several Tory MPs will rebel against the government on Tuesday, to give parliament the opportunity to stop no deal. But the costs have never been higher for them.

Monday

David Paton

What type of general election does Jeremy Corbyn want to fight?

The current obsession with Boris Johnson’s decision to marginally reduce Parliament's sittings days has had the side effect of taking the spotlight off the tricky strategic decisions Jeremy Corbyn faces over the next two months. Up until now, Corbyn has been content to continue attacking the prospect of no deal largely on the basis of the threat to workers’ jobs. The sight of him lining up on the same side as the big business forces of Remain is somewhat incongruous, whilst his description of no deal as a 'bankers’ Brexit' looks odd given how much funding Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and the other international banks gave to the Remain campaign during the referendum.

Ivan Rogers

Ivan Rogers: the realities of a no-deal Brexit

As so often in the last three years, much of our political debate is ducking the central strategic questions and is obsessing, in increasingly hysterical fashion on all sides, about tactical ones. We face the most explosive political week for years, perhaps decades. But remarkably little of the debate is about our real options. We should be thinking 10 to 20 years ahead, not 10 weeks. The primary issue with a 'no deal' Brexit is not, and never has been, how far our domestic contingency planning enables us to mitigate the short-term shock. That is hugely important. If 'no deal' happens, the day to day consequences – malign or benign – will inevitably drown out all else in the news for months.

Isabel Hardman

Election on 14 October if government loses no-deal vote

There will be a general election on 14 October if MPs defeat the government tomorrow on no-deal Brexit legislation. Number 10 will publish a motion tomorrow which says that if MPs do take control of the Order Paper and pass legislation for an extension to the Brexit deadline, there will be a general election. Senior government sources have just briefed that they do not want an election, but that this motion will show MPs that they are voting for one if they back the legislation. The sentiments offered at this bullish briefing were much stronger than the ones given by Johnson. The official said: 'If you're an MP, you don't get to cancel Brexit in this way.' He also argued that Tory MPs who back the legislation will merely be handing control of the Brexit negotiations to Jeremy Corbyn.

Alex Massie

What is the point of these prime ministerial statements?

I know I can’t speak for your circumstances but I hope you’re enjoying this Festival of Brexit as much as I am. The country hasn’t endured this kind of dismal government since the last one and, sweetly, the opposition is just as inspirational and attractive as it was then too. Yet again, nothing has changed. Say what you will about Boris Johnson however – and I suppose there’s plenty you could – no-one can deny he possesses the priceless ability to spraff on and on with stuff he, even he, must surely know is nonsense on a zip wire. On Monday evening he charged out of Downing Street - rather with the air of a startled Number 8 it must be said – to tell an expectant nation that he shared their impatience.

Boris Johnson

Boris Johnson: I don’t want an election, you don’t want an election

Five weeks ago I spoke to you from these steps and said that this government was not going to hang around and that we would not wait until Brexit day – October 31 – to deliver on the priorities of the British people. And so I am proud to say that on Wednesday Chancellor Sajid Javid is going to set out the most ambitious spending round for more than a decade. I said I wanted to make your streets safer – and that is why we are recruiting another 20,000 police officers. I said I wanted to improve your hospital and reduce the waiting times at your GP. And so we are doing 20 new hospital upgrades in addition to the extra £34 billion going into the NHS.

Katy Balls

Boris Johnson tries to shift the blame for an early election

In his statement outside No. 10, Boris Johnson's message was simple: back me or help Corbyn. Ahead of a crunch Brexit vote tomorrow in the Commons, the Prime Minister urged Tory MPs to get on side and help ensure a Brexit deal could be agreed. In order to do this, Johnson said it was vital that MPs did not vote for the rebel alliance plot to try to force the government to request an Article 50 extension: 'But if there is one thing that can hold us back in these talks it is the sense in Brussels that MPs may find some way to cancel the referendum. Or that tomorrow MPs will vote - with Jeremy Corbyn - for yet another pointless delay. I don’t think they will. I hope that they won’t.

Robert Peston

Boris Johnson tells rebels: back me or face an early election

Boris Johnson's message to MPs is that if they vote tomorrow for another delay, then Wednesday there will be vote on general election. MPs gone, no 14 days, no legislation on extension. Election on 14 October. Government source: 'who does country want to sort it out on 18 Oct at EU?' UPDATE, 6.27pm: “I hope MPs won’t [vote for Brexit delay]...There are no circumstances in which I will ask Brussels for a delay...I don’t want an election”. Hmmm. He didn’t say he would force election if he loses tomorrow but those close to him tell me categorically he would. UPDATE, 6.48pm: To confirm, a minister tells me Cabinet approved that tomorrow’s vote on backbenchers taking control of order paper will be seen as confidence vote.

Katy Balls

Amber Rudd: Government should think ‘very carefully’ on deselections

How is the Cabinet responding to the latest Brexit developments? This evening, Boris Johnson will meet with his ministers to discuss the next steps forward – and rumours of an early election are rampant. No. 10's decision to withdraw the whip and stop from standing at the next election any Tory MP who rebels on Brexit will no doubt come up. Today, I spoke to Amber Rudd about the move in a recording for The Spectator Women with Balls podcast. The full episode will be released on Friday but given the ever-changing nature of politics, Coffee House is publishing her Brexit comments in advance.

Isabel Hardman

Will Labour MPs really back a general election?

There's an assumption in Westminster that the Labour Party would have to back a snap general election if Boris Johnson called one this week. Jeremy Corbyn has said that 'an election is the democratic way forward', while his Shadow Brexit minister Jenny Chapman said Labour would vote against one that came after 31 October, adding that 'having a general election becomes one of the few ways that we are able to prevent no deal'. But that doesn't necessarily mean that Labour will provide the numbers to approve an election motion in the Commons. I have been speaking to MPs in the upper echelons of the party and on the backbenches and many of them privately say they would vote against the motion, even if whipped to do so.

Robert Peston

Does Boris Johnson want to lose tomorrow’s vote?

To reinforce what I said about the gravity of tomorrow’s vote, rumours are swirling that Dominic Cummings – the PM’s chief aide – wants to lose (I am not persuaded!) the vote so he can purge Grieve and any other rebel Tories and then take on Corbyn’s Labour before the next EU council on 17 October. He may now feel this the best platform to honour Boris Johnson’s pledge to leave the EU by 31 October. This is quite the game of chicken. What is clear to me is that events will move very fast if Johnson loses tomorrow – because Johnson will not want his authority damaged by a whole week of defeats at the hands of the opposition and rebel Tories. In a nutshell, here is the dilemma for Tory rebels and the opposition Labour Party.

James Forsyth

What is Number 10 up to?

Boris Johnson’s team wants to set up a binary choice between backing him on Brexit and a Jeremy Corbyn government. First, they are trying this on their own MPs—hence the decision to treat this week’s vote on an extension as if it was a confidence matter. But if this doesn’t work, and at the moment it looks like there are enough rebels for anti no-deal MPs to seize control of the order paper, then—I suspect—they will go to the country with the same message. They are determined not to allow MPs to make a puppet of Boris Johnson. They know that if the Prime Minister requested an extension, even if he had been forced into it, it would destroy their electoral strategy. Why?

Isabel Hardman

Is Boris Johnson about to go for an election?

Things are moving fast in Westminster this afternoon, with speculation mounting that Boris Johnson might be about to call an election. The Cabinet is meeting this afternoon, and there will be a reception of Tory MPs in Downing Street this evening, too. Those involved are definitely discussing an early general election as one possibility. The reason this is under consideration is that Number 10 expects MPs to win their bid tomorrow to take control of the order paper, which would mean that Johnson is pitched into eight weeks of being Prime Minister but with no power. He will have lost around a dozen Tory MPs, meaning he has no majority. In these circumstances, he could argue, the only right thing to do is to ask the country what sort of parliament it wants in another general election.

Isabel Hardman

Boris’s game of chicken with Tory rebels

Is Boris Johnson playing a game of chicken with anti-no-deal Tory MPs? The two sides are locked in a furious standoff over the threat from the Prime Minister that MPs will lose the Tory whip and be prevented from standing for the party at the next election if they back this week's rebel legislation blocking no deal. That threat, first reported by James Forsyth, might have caused one or two MPs to back down, but it has made others, including Rory Stewart and David Gauke, more defiant. They are insisting that they will vote for the extension legislation this week, even if it means they stop being Conservatives. The point of a game of chicken is that at some point, the loser veers away.

Katy Balls

The dilemma facing the anti-no deal Tory rebels

After the government confirmed James's story that any Tory MPs who rebel in a Brexit vote this week will have the whip withdrawn and be unable to stand as a Conservative at the next election, anti-no deal MPs find themselves in a dilemma. No 10’s aim is to present them with a simple choice: Johnson or Corbyn, making clear that the wrong decision will be career-ending. A number have been dissuaded from joining efforts tomorrow to legislate against no deal. Others – including David Gauke and Rory Stewart – appear to be holding firm. However, whatever happens this week with the votes, the dilemma for the anti-no deal Tories will remain much the same. The Conservative party under Johnson is set on a path that many cannot reconcile with their Brexit views.