Politics

Read about the latest political news, views and analysis

Sunday shows round-up: Sturgeon says legal challenge to referendum would be ‘completely outrageous’

The results from the ‘Super Thursday’ elections are now in, and they are raising existential questions, both for the Labour party and for the United Kingdom. The SNP re-established their dominant position across Scotland, hoovering up most of the constituency seats, but falling just short of an overall majority once the ‘list’ seats were taken into account. Nicola Sturgeon has already announced her plans to introduce another independence referendum in a speech yesterday. On the Andrew Marr Show, she responded to the suggestion that her plans could be bought before the Supreme Court, either by the government, or another challenger: https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1391319272987799552?

Gove’s approach to IndyRef2: don’t talk about it

After the SNP fell short of a majority by just one seat in the Scottish Parliament elections, a stand off has formed between Nicola Sturgeon and the UK government. The First Minister has heralded a pro-independence Scottish parliament majority in Holyrood - arguing that when you take the Green party's gains north of the border into account, there is a clear case for a second independence referendum. Sturgeon plans to press ahead and legislate for a border poll – suggesting that the only way Boris Johnson can stop her is to go to court. The UK government response so far is to not engage and instead talk about the whole of the UK working together to make the Covid recovery a success.

Laurence Fox loses his deposit

The London election results have finally been declared and it turns out the poll were not lying: Laurence Fox is not to be the capital’s mayor. The onetime actor lost his £10,000 deposit last night after managing just 47,364 votes or, as he preferred to call it, ‘a football stadium's worth of voters.’ This was despite boasts of a £5 million war chest, the benefit of having been an ITV star for years and reams of publicity in the national press.In fairness to Fox he was not alone in this feat; other than Labour, the Tories and the Greens every other mayoral candidate lost their deposit last night. For the third time running the Lib Dems came fourth with 4.

Who is more upset about Labour’s results: Starmer or the BBC?

It’s not just the Labour party which is institutionally incapable of understanding why the Conservative party kicked the hell out of them in these elections. It is also, of course, the BBC. The prime offender was — hold your breath in surprise — Emily Maitlis on Newsnight. Furlough and vaccines were the sole reason the Tories did well, according to this very affluent, metropolitan, liberal woman, who has a child in boarding school, natch. Dimbo voters again then, too dense to grasp the ‘realities'. But then there was Huw. There always is Mr Edwards. Conducting an interview with Labour’s Lucy Powell, he exuded sympathy and gratitude. No hard questions. Just ameliatory bilge.

The London mayoralty needs to be reformed

Who does a capital city belong to? In the case of London tonight, one answer could be ‘Labour’, now that Sadiq Khan has claimed victory, as the party performs disastrously elsewhere. And clearly Khan’s strong support among the left-wing, the middle class, EU nationals (who are permitted to vote for the mayoralty), and some of the largest ethnic minority communities, shows that his chippy ID politics goes down well among enough residents of the capital to keep the keys to City Hall securely in his pocket. https://twitter.com/MayorofLondon/status/1391154209698062336?

Can the UK government navigate the SNP’s calls for a second referendum?

The Unionist tactical voting in Scotland makes it tempting to see the country as split down the middle between pro-independence and anti-independence voters. But this is not quite right. There is a good argument that the Scottish electorate is actually split three ways between Unionists, Nationalists and those who aren’t fully decided on the constitutional question. It is this third group who will determine the result of any second referendum. So, the UK government has to have them in mind when thinking about how to handle the inevitable request for a Section 30 order and a second referendum. The first thing to say is that the UK government should ensure Nicola Sturgeon is making the running on this. Headlines such as ‘PM: No new Scottish referendum’ are not helpful.

Alex Salmond’s comeback disaster

As the dust settles from Scotland’s elections and the war of words heats up over a future referendum, one thing is perfectly clear: Alex Salmond’s Alba party has been a monumental failure. The former First Minister, whose disastrous party launch six weeks ago set the tone for what followed, failed to be elected as one of the seven North East MSPs, despite much talk of ‘gaming’ the list system. The 17 seats in that region were divided between the SNP (9) Conservatives (5) Labour (2) and Green (1).Salmond himself polled just 2.3 per cent of the vote in what was once his mighty heartland, with Alba failing to win a single seat across the country.

Labour recriminations begin: Angela Rayner sacked as party chair

The local election results are not over yet but the recriminations in Labour over the party's bad results are already well under way. Following the party's loss in Hartlepool as well as losses in various red wall councils, Keir Starmer has started to rearrange his top team. This afternoon the Labour leader made the bold decision to sack Angela Rayner as party chair and campaign coordinator. Rayner remains the party's deputy leader – a role that was decided by the membership and Starmer cannot remove from her. The reaction is so furious that Labour sources have come out to insist Rayner will still play an important role and could be given a new role So, what's going on?

Andy Street’s success is part of the English political realignment

Andy Street won the West Midlands mayoralty in 2017 by the slimmest of margins, with 50.4 percent of the vote to Labour’s 49.6 percent in the second round. He has been re-elected by a far more comfortable margin: 54 percent in the second round, and was within eight thousand votes of winning on the first round. Street’s success is part of the broader English political realignment. Just look at his vote share in the Black Country. But he also has a distinct political style, emphasising his business experience - he’s the former boss of John Lewis - and a more consensual approach. Voters have clearly decided that they prefer this style to the more traditional, partisan posturing of the Labour candidate, former Cabinet Minister Liam Byrne.

No SNP majority, now what?

13 min listen

Scotland will have a pro-independence majority at Holyrood, but the SNP has fallen short of an overall majority. What does this mean for the party, its leader Nicola Sturgeon, and the campaign for a second independence referendum? Katy Balls speaks to James Forsyth and Stephen Daisley. James Forsyth: ‘In a way, this is why this (election) is a bad proxy for the question of independence opinion in Scotland, because there are obviously three sizeable, pro-Union parties in Scotland: Tories, Labour and Liberal Democrats. And on the pro-independence side, there's the SNP, there are the Greens, who are interestingly, a poll during the campaign suggested that most Green voters weren't actually in favour of independence.

Welsh Labour proves again it’s a distinctive, winning brand

After the news of a Tory landslide in Hartlepool was announced early Friday morning, senior Welsh Labour figures were worried. The scale of defeat in the North of England was worse than expected, and represented nothing short of a disaster for Keir Starmer’s leadership. Could the same fate be expected for Labour’s Red Wall in North and South Wales, which started to crack in the 2019 general election? The answer, in short, is no. Welsh Labour stormed to a breathtaking victory in the Senedd election, gaining a seat from its 2016 hall to win thirty of the sixty places in Cardiff Bay.

Keir Starmer can’t afford to wait for the Tories to defeat themselves

‘We’re trapped between the two worlds,’ said a Labour worker during the last days of the party’s ill-fated Hartlepool by-election campaign. She meant Labour was strapped for cash, lacking the many small donations that came with Jeremy Corbyn and the big donors who backed Tony Blair. Her comment, however, had a wider relevance. In trying to keep hold of younger, middle-class metropolitan voters who already supported Labour while also attracting back older, small town working-class voters who have abandoned the party over recent elections, the various contests held on Thursday showed Keir Starmer was unable to do either.

Leading article, Fiona Mountford, Laurie Graham and Isabel Hardman

24 min listen

On this week's episode, Fraser Nelson starts by reading our leading article: the Prime Minister promised 'data, not dates', so should we reopen before 21 June? (01:15) Fiona Mountford is on next, saying she's had enough of corporate faux-friendliness. (07:20) Laurie Graham reads her piece afterwards, wondering what to put in her Covid time capsule. (13:00) Isabel Hardman finishes the podcast by reading her notes on Dandelions - perhaps the 'cheeriest of wild flowers'.

Is Keir Starmer destined to become a ‘Kinnock-esque’ figure?

Sir Keir Starmer is planning a policy review as part of his plans to ‘change’ Labour after the dismal Super Thursday results. This sounds, to put it mildly, like a rather small response to a rather big problem. Talking to MPs and campaigners over the past 24 hours, I have noticed a shift in the way many of them describe Labour's challenge. The Hartlepool result has underlined that the party’s recovery hasn’t yet started, and that it is going to be a very, very long time before that recovery can take the party back into government. Starmer could become a Kinnock-esque figure, who might merely prepare the ground for another leader who wins.

Hartlepool shows Labour has lost its way

The election of a Conservative MP in Hartlepool for the first time in the constituency’s modern history is yet another wake-up call for my party. Peter Mandelson once enjoyed a 17,500 majority here. Now the Tories are deep into what was once safe Labour territory – the industrial heartlands of the North – with a 7,000 majority of their own. In the West Midlands it looks again like Labour will lose out on the mayoral race and more. What has gone wrong for the Labour party and our wider movement? My view is simple: in the past decade, Labour has lost touch with ordinary British people. A London-based bourgeoisie, with the support of brigades of woke social media warriors, has effectively captured the party.

Does the UK’s ‘green list’ for travel make sense?

International travel is back on the menu, in theory. From 17 May the ‘stay in the UK’ restrictions are lifting and residents can legally leave the country once again. But the number of destinations where you won't have to quarantine on return is limited, and travelling anywhere will require jumping through several hoops. At today’s No. 10 press conference, Grant Shapps revealed the first 12 countries that will be placed on the 'green list', which includes Portugal, Iceland and Israel. It’s a return to the traffic light system and most countries are ranked ‘amber’, which will require a ten day quarantine at home upon return. ‘Red’ countries will still require hotel quarantine, paid for by the traveller.

Why is Liz Cheney still a Republican?

19 min listen

They saved her once, but it seems that the Congressional Republicans patience with Representative Liz Cheney has run out. The founder of the GOP said 'a house divided cannot stand', but maybe it's not a divided as the media makes it out. Freddy Gray speaks to Grace Curley, host of The Grace Curley Show.

Does Keir Starmer have a plan to ‘reconnect’ with voters?

Sir Keir Starmer has just accepted that Labour needs to 'change' and 'reconnect' with voters, following the Hartlepool by-election result. In a rather stressed and evasive TV interview, the Labour leader repeatedly said his party needed to change, but refused to say whether there would be a reshuffle, or indeed what the party's message would be. He insisted that this went 'beyond' a reshuffle or other questions of personnel. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=utFBBwoqvdY The reason that Starmer was asked so often about whether there would be a reshuffle is that many in his party are pressing for a number of big changes. The three people in the firing line are shadow chancellor Anneliese Dodds, Starmer's political secretary Baroness Chapman, and his chief of staff Morgan McSweeney.

Watch: Starmer’s dire post election interview

Having claimed earlier in the week that would he take 'full responsibility' for Labour's election results, it took until 4 p.m. for Keir Starmer to emerge and face the media on what went wrong in Hartlepool. In contrast to a jovial Johnson who got to do his piece to camera in front of a twenty foot blow up Boris with a newly-elected Tory MP in Teesside, Starmer had to do his in his London office – hardly a surprise given there were few newly gained seats for him to visit.A grim-faced Starmer give a painful five minute long interview that reminded Mr S of Ed Miliband's infamous 'get round the negotiating table' rehearsed attempts ten years ago.