Ross Clark

At a dinner on Sunday 1st October at the Conservative party conference, sponsored by Barclays, bankers, journalists, MPs and policy experts discussed ‘Brexit and the City: a future that works for everyone’. The event was chaired by Fraser Nelson and the article below is a summary of what was discussed. Banks were the popular anti-hero of the 2008/09 financial crisis. Now, there is widespread fear for their future after Brexit, as they will be required to relocate some operations in order to continue to qualify for ‘passporting rights’ needed to provide financial services in the single market. On the other hand, Brexit could free us from regulation, which in some ways could boost business for the financial services industry.

When governments fall it often comes from an unexpected quarter. Thirty eight years ago, James Callaghan’s government fell not as a direct result of the Winter of Discontent but from the fallout over a failed referendum on Scottish devolution. Over the past week we have heard plenty of speculation about Theresa May losing her job thanks to her cough at Manchester or through Brexit-induced civil war in her cabinet. But could we be missing something more obscure but at the same time more ominous? The more I think about it, the gravest danger to the government comes not from its handling of Brexit, universal credit, inflation or any of the other stories which have dominated the news agenda in the past month.

Many assume that if an election were held soon, Jeremy Corbyn would win. But what if, say, the government fell in 2020 and Labour won a working majority? At 71, Corbyn becomes Britain’s oldest prime minister since Churchill, and at first is one of its most popular. His appeal grows as he takes on some of the country’s favourite demons. Few listen to the protests of water and electricity shareholders as their stakes are seized — most are focused on their own bills, which surely will come down now. There are cheers at Victoria Station as the news flashes across screens that Southern Railway is to be nationalised. At hospitals, medical staff are filmed applauding as PFI contracts are terminated and taken on by the NHS. Stock markets show an upwards blip.

Even if Germany had Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system, Angela Merkel would be struggling this morning to form a government. With 33 per cent of the vote, her Christian Democrat and Christian Social alliance has suffered its weakest showing in 68 years – tempered only by the equal failure of the socialists. It might have been a moment for Emmanuel Macron to seize the crown of de facto leader of Europe were it not that he, too, suffered a lower-profile though no less significant electoral reversal over the weekend – in Senate elections the La Republique En Marche party won only 23 of the 171 seats up for grabs. With his popularity ratings plummeting and his labour market reforms hardly begun, the Macron bubble has well and truly been burst.

Nothing spoke of the fractious atmosphere in the aftermath of the Brexit referendum more than the death of 40-year-old Arek Jozwik in a shopping centre in Harlow, Essex in August 2016. What might, on any other weekend, have been passed over as just another grubby Saturday-night incident on Britain’s drunken high streets became elevated into a symptom of Brexit-induced racial hatred. James O’Brien, an LBC radio talk-show host, declared that certain Eurosceptics had ‘blood on their hands’ as did ‘anybody who has suggested speaking Polish in a public place is in any way undesirable’. This was the premise of almost all reporting on the story: a man seemed to have been murdered for being Polish.

So, the worst has happened, just as Ryanair said it would. The budget airline has had to cancel thousands of flights – around 50 of them, every day, for the next six weeks. It follows an ominous warning that was made by chief executive Michael O' Leary last month: “What is increasingly likely to happen is that there will be no flights. Mrs May and the Brexiteers will be trying to explain that to you in 12 months’ time, why getting a car to Scotland or a ferry to Ireland are the only options on offer.” Except, that is, while last month’s warning concerned Brexit, this week’s cancellations concerned a cock-up of Ryanair’s own making.

It used to be the weather that served as the catch-all excuse for poorly performing businesses – it is too cold or too hot for people to go shopping. How convenient, now we have grown a little tired with that one, that Brexit has come along to serve the same purpose. Speaking on the Today programme this morning, John Lewis chairman Sir Charlie Mayfield was asked to explain a 53 per cent fall in profits for the first half of the year. To be fair to him he didn’t initially mention Brexit at all but when the inevitable question came from Today’s business correspondent he said: 'We should be under no illusions. Brexit is having an effect on the economy, no question. It’s the same for everybody and the main effects are sterling and confidence.

The choice which faced us at the EU referendum has often been presented as lying between the status quo and the unknown, between security and uncertainty. Until the early hours of 24 June last year I was convinced that this would be the clincher: that the British public, though heavily Eurosceptic, would not quite have the balls to overcome their native conservatism and take what many would see as a leap in the dark. Yet Jean-Claude Juncker’s ‘state of the union’ speech today dispels the notion that voting Remain would have been a vote to keep things as they are. Remaining in the EU as it now is was not an option on the ballot paper.

Nothing has the potential to harm Theresa May’s weakened government more than a battle over the rights of Parliament. Just remember the PR disaster for the government that was the government’s High Court battle with Gina Miller over the right for a Parliamentary vote on the exercise of Article 50. Having fought and lost in the courts, the government had no trouble whatsoever in passing the Article 50 legislation. Why expend so much energy in a battle which makes you look authoritarian and yet which you never needed to fight in the first place? Tonight, Labour will be hoping to repeat the exercise with the vote on the second reading of the European Union (Withdrawal) Bill.

Louise Richardson, Vice Chancellor of the University of Oxford, is, according to the university’s website, a political scientist whose research 'specialises in international security with a particular emphasis on terrorist movements'. Next time she tries to defend her £350,000 salary I suggest she corners someone from the economics department for advice. I don’t think, at her current state of understanding, she would get very far in a PhD on relative pay in the fields of business, entertainment and academia. I am sure Ms Richardson works very hard and her work is all terribly worthy but, alas, in a capitalist system that is not, and has never been, how financial rewards are dispensed.