Peter Hoskin

When David Laws resigned from government last year, his return was thought to be only a matter of time. Today, it is looking considerably more indefinite. Not only has Cameron been talking down the prospect of a reshuffle any time soon, but the Evening Standard is reporting that Laws has been found guilty of breaching six — six! — Commons rules related to his expense claims. No word, yet, on the details, or whether there will be any formal punishment for the former Chief Sec. But it doesn't look good for him, nor for his ministerial prospects in the short-term. Sky's Sophy Ridge tweets that certain Lib Dems are "still keen" to transfer Laws back to government "within weeks". Perhaps so — but I'd be surprised were they to pull it off.

Our coalition government was forged one year ago tomorrow — and we shall have more on that then. But the Sun has already marked the occasion by publishing an interview with David Cameron today. It is a wide-ranging sort of conversation, touching on everything from the Prime Minister's workload ("every day feels like a week") to the shelf life of the government ("five years"), although much of it is unsurprising. It does, however, contain one or two useful insights into how the coalition's game of give-and-take is going to operate from now on. First up, Cameron's insistence — contra Clegg — that the Lib Dems should not be portrayed as a "moderating influence" on his party.

Here's a game of Spot the Difference for you. Compare Nick Clegg's comments today — "…there are some very strong memories of what life was like under Thatcherism in the 1980s, and somehow a fear that that's what we're returning to…" — with the latest shot from The Spectator archives: Can Nick Clegg sing the blues? Fraser Nelson, The Spectator, 13 March 2010 Nick Clegg’s office already has a Downing Street feel to it. Since becoming leader of the Liberal Democrats, he has had it redecorated so that portraits of old party leaders hang on the staircase up to his room, as portraits of former prime minsters do in No. 10. It starts plausibly enough, with portraits of Palmerston, Gladstone and Asquith.

The final tally from Wales is just in — and it's a minor disappointment, on a day of many disappointments, for Ed Miliband. There was a time when Labour looked set for a comfortable overall majority in the country. But it isn't to be. They did gain four seats, yet that leaves them one short of an overall majority. Now, with thirty seats — exactly half of those in the Welsh Assembly — they will have to make do with a tighter, working majority. Far from terrible, but not the red groundswell that Miliband might have hoped for. The problem for Miliband is the overall picture: a precarious sort of victory in Wales; solid, but unspectacular, results in England; an evisceration in Scotland; and, most likely, defeat for AV.

If you fell asleep expecting heavy losses for the Lib Dems, then you will not have been disappointed upon waking up. At time of writing, around 100 English councils, comprising roughly 2,400 councillors, have declared their results – and the yellow brigade have already lost four of them, along with 270 councillors. There's some way to go yet, so the picture could alter, but Labour appear to making sweeping gains, while the Tory vote is holding unexpectedly firm. As it stands, the local wing of Cameron's party has actually gained a council, along with 22 councillors in the process. Stir in the likely result of the AV referendum, and the Tory leader is looking like a net winner on the night.

While the focus remains fixed on the dramas of Coalitionville, it's worth remembering that today's votes are meaningful for Ed Miliband too. The Labour leader may not be facing the prospect of resignations, nor even outcry, at their various outcomes. But this is, nonetheless, the first major electoral moment of his leadership. He might well be judged on it. In which case, much will depend on the extent to which Labour advances in England have already been priced into the electoral calculus. If the party's footsoldiers regard sweeping gains — of perhaps around 1,000 seats — as some sort of default, then attention may turn instead to the turnaround in favour of the SNP in Scotland, and to the likely defeat for Yes to AV.

The usual form, on mornings such as these, is to put up a post setting the scene for the elections ahead – although, really, there's not much more to add than was said yesterday. Apart from a readers' survey in the Metro this morning, the only poll to hit after yesterday's ICM bombshell is a YouGov one for the Sun, and it gives No a 20-point lead. Even given the complications of turnout and geography, it looks as though Team No are heading for a straightforward victory. As if to underline his increased personal involvement in the campaign, and perhaps tie himself that little bit closer to the eventual result, David Cameron has not one, but two, comment pieces in the papers today – in the Mail and in the Sun.