Uk politics

Wednesday

Ross Clark

Is business really that bothered by the prospect of May’s departure?

The world of business is, apparently, appalled by the actions of the 48 or more Conservative MPs who have triggered a vote of no confidence in Theresa May as Conservative leader. According to the Institute of Directors, its members are ‘tearing their hair out’ over today’s news. The message seems to be that a change of Prime Minister is an unwanted distraction when the country is already in a state of crisis. Yet markets seem to disagree. The FTSE this morning is up by more than one per cent. However negatively bosses might see the potential end of Theresa May as Prime Minister, investors in their companies seem to be taking a rather more positive view. It is not the first time that a divergence has emerged between business leaders and investors over Brexit.

Isabel Hardman

How the Tory vote of no confidence in Theresa May will work

Two Tory MPs who are currently suspended from the party whip could be brought back in order to take part in today's vote of no confidence against Theresa May, 1922 Committee Chair Graham Brady revealed this morning. Briefing journalists on the vote, Brady said he was waiting for confirmation from the Chief Whip of the size of the Tory party electoral roll, and that it depended on whether Charlie Ephicke or Andrew Griffiths had the whip restored. Both men were suspended following allegations of sexual harassment, though the Conservative party concluded in November that no further action would be taken against Griffiths. Brady also said that any MPs who were unable to return to Westminster for the vote would be able to apply for a proxy vote by 4pm today, with the result announced at 9pm.

Alex Massie

Ditching Theresa May achieves nothing

Theresa May has failed. That is no longer in doubt. Nor is there any prospect of resurrection. Her credibility within the Conservative party, the House of Commons, and the country at large is shot. The only thing propping up her Government is the fear that allowing it to collapse completely would invite Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street. That, for the time being, is something even this deranged iteration of the Conservative party is not prepared to countenance. As a matter of party politics, May has been on some kind of unofficial probation ever since last year’s disastrous general election. In office, certainly, but only tolerated grudgingly.

Steerpike

Watch: Tory MPs refuse to talk on TV

It's all out war in the Conservative party today, and as you would expect, things are already getting a little heated between Tory MPs. The rift between colleagues backing Theresa May and those calling for her to go was very apparent on BBC news this morning, where Brexiteer and letter submitter Andrew Bridgen was talking about the upcoming no confidence vote. At the end of his interview, he was then asked by Victoria Derbyshire if he was willing to stay on and chat with the deputy chairman of the Conservative Party, James Cleverly - who is backing Theresa May, and who had just joined them: 'I gather, that you don't necessarily want to talk to each other, so if you need to go, are you happy to, talk?' To which Bridgen replied: 'I'll go, that's fine' And walked off. Ouch.

Isabel Hardman

How No. 10’s shredded credibility could make today’s vote much closer

One of the factors that led to the triggering of a no confidence vote and that will play a huge part in the result of that vote is the way in which Number 10 has shredded its credibility in the past few days. It isn't just the way in which Theresa May's press operation pushed back against rumours over the weekend that the meaningful vote on Brexit would be delayed, or the way in which ministers such as Michael Gove were still claiming that there wouldn't be a delay just hours before the announcement to the contrary. It's also that last night Downing Street was trying to dampen speculation that the 48 letters calling for the vote had been received.

Katy Balls

Theresa May delivers a message of defiance to her Tory critics

Theresa May has just given a defiant speech outside Downing Street in which she promised to ‘contest’ the confidence vote with ‘everything’ that she’s got. On the news that 48 confidence letters had been received by 1922 committee chairman Graham Brady, the Prime Minister said the only people a Tory leadership contest would benefit right now are Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell: ‘A change of leadership in the Conservative party now would put our country’s future at risk and create uncertainty when we can least afford it. A new leader wouldn’t be in place by 21 January legal deadline, so a leadership election risks handing control of the Brexit negotiations to opposition MPs in parliament.

Steerpike

The next Tory leader: runners and riders

It’s official, 48 letters of no confidence have been submitted to the chairman of the 1922 committee, Graham Brady, triggering a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister this evening. If she loses this, she will be required to stand down and a Conservative leadership election will begin. As James reports on Coffee House, already the next potential leaders of the Tory party are jostling to take Theresa May’s place. But any Tory MP who wants to take the Conservative Party throne has a tough ride ahead. First, they have to be popular among their fellow MPs, in an internal election that narrows the process down to two candidates. Then, after hustings, they have to win a vote among Conservative grassroots members.

Katy Balls

Tory MPs talk up a swift Christmas leadership contest

Theresa May will tonight face a confidence vote by her MPs. Conservative MPs will vote on her fate early evening – and the results are expected to be counted immediately. The arrival of 48 letters took government figures by surprise last night. While it was clear May's decision to shelve the vote on her Brexit deal had gone badly with chunks of Tory MPs ministers had seen its postponement as crucial to her short term survival. Now May will have to fight to stay on until that vote. Speaking to MPs in the Commons last night, it became clear that the hostilities towards May are far wider ranging than just the European Research Group.

Tom Goodenough

The full list of Tory MPs backing Theresa May

With just a few moments to go until voting closes, 181 Tory MPs have publicly backed Theresa May in the vote of confidence. Given that May needs 159 votes, their support should be enough to keep her position safe. But given that this is a secret ballot, are they as good as their word? Here is the full list of those who have vowed to back the PM: Bim Afolami: https://twitter.com/BimAfolami/status/1072768564711567360?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw Adam Afriyie: https://twitter.com/AdamAfriyie/status/1072784271427940352?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw Heidi Allen: https://twitter.com/heidiallen75/status/1072776427832033281?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw Stuart Andrew Ed Argar Victoria Atkins Kemi Badenoch Steve Barclay: https://twitter.com/SteveBarclay/status/1072768890877501441?

James Forsyth

To survive now, Theresa May could have to promise to resign later

The signatures are now in. Theresa May will have to ask whether her best chance of survival comes in promising to resign – but not just yet. She must now decide whether to set out a timetable for her departure ahead of this evening. If she wins the vote, she cannot be challenged for another year. There, though, are a decent number of Tories MPs who don’t want her gone now, but do want her to leave soon after March 29th. They would like a new PM in place for the 2nd round of the Brexit negotiations.   So what are they to do if tonight's confidence vote? If May gives no indication that she will go before party conference next year, some of these MPs might tip into the no confidence column – making this contest a closer than expected affair.

Tom Goodenough

Breaking: Leadership contest against Theresa May triggered

In the last few moments it has been confirmed that a leadership contest against Theresa May has been triggered. The number of letters of no confidence in the Prime Minister needed to lead to a vote – 48 – is believed to have been met last night. Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the Tory backbench 1922 committee, told Tory MPs in a message this morning that events overnight 'have moved very quickly' and that the threshold had now been reached. A vote is expected to take place tonight between 6pm and 8pm. It is thought that the votes will be counted immediately, meaning that if she loses, Theresa May could be gone as early as tonight.

Tuesday

James Forsyth

Mounting speculation that the 48 letters are in

The talk in Tory circles this evening is that the 48 letters are in. Two putative leadership campaigns are saying they are. But, perhaps more significantly, so is one close ally of the Prime Minister. There has, though, been no word from Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee. However, we wouldn’t expect him to say anything until he has spoken to Theresa May directly. If the letters are in, expect a quick vote. Tory MPs are on a three-line whip for Thursday and that would be the obvious time to have it. I think there is very little chance of Theresa May resigning before any vote. One long-time backbench ally of hers says that she is in ‘defiant mood’.

John Major

John Major: we need to revoke Article 50 with immediate effect

Whether a “Remainer” or a “Leaver”, no-one welcomes chaos. So it is time for everyone to reflect and consider. Time to turn to reality – not fiction. Reason – not ideology. We need to calm the markets. We need to protect the economic wellbeing of the British people. We need to protect our national interest. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that – to do so – we need to revoke Article 50 with immediate effect. The clock must be stopped. It is clear we need the most precious commodity of all: time. Wherever one looks, a new world is forming: it is vigorous, and often contemptuous of old thinking. For a long time democracy, free trade, and the spread of liberal politics seemed unstoppable: we now know they were not.

Isabel Hardman

Can May really win back MPs’ trust?

How can MPs trust what ministers say after the Brexit fiasco of the past few days? That’s been the theme of the Commons emergency debate on the meaningful vote so far, with phrases like ‘shredded her credibility’ being bandied about. Initially, the most stinging criticism came from opposition MPs, but those MPs are not the usual suspects who chant blandly about how you can ‘never trust the Tories’. They’re senior backbenchers like Hilary Benn and Angela Eagle. And they speak for a large number of Tory MPs, too, who feel that there is little reason to trust what a minister or indeed a whip tells them.

Steerpike

Watch: Theresa May gets locked inside her car

Poor old Theresa May. The PM is hopping across Europe in a desperate bid to try and salvage her Brexit deal. But quite predictably things aren't going well. After arriving in Berlin to meet Angela Merkel, Theresa May got off to a bad start – by getting locked in her car. https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1072463780007809024?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw Mr S is pleased to report that it wasn't long before the PM was freed, although he suspects that not all Tory MPs will be pleased about that....

Steerpike

Watch: John Bercow burns Philip Hammond

John Bercow gave Labour MPs a helping hand in the Commons yesterday by making his thoughts known on the Government's decision to delay a vote on Theresa May's Brexit deal. The Speaker said the hold-up was 'deeply discourteous'. But it seems he hasn't stopped his mission of making life tricky for the Tories. Philip Hammond urged John McDonnell to vote for the PM's withdrawal arrangement because it was the best that was on offer. But unfortunately for the Chancellor his remark teed up Bercow to take a pop at him: 'It's quite difficult to vote for something if there isn't a vote' Mr S thinks that Bercow does have a point...

Alexander Downer

No deal need not be a disaster

Spare a thought for us foreigners. We’re desperately trying to understand the meaning of the Brexit arguments being thrown around in the House of Commons. We all have our own countries too, so we view those arguments through the lens of our homelands. So here are a few reflections on how we react.  Theresa May's deal has the UK leaving the voting structures of the EU but remaining in the Customs Union until the EU gives the UK permission to leave. Australia and New Zealand have a free trade agreement and co-ordinate their regulatory regimes through a joint council. But they certainly don’t have a customs union otherwise neither country would be able to make its own trade policy.

Ross Clark

May’s delay has made a leadership challenge more likely

How painfully clear it is what happens next. Theresa May returns from her European travels with some kind of non legally-binding piece of paper saying that the EU would rather not enact the backstop if it can possibly avoid it, and, some time in January we finally have the crushing Commons defeat that we should have had today. Unless, that is, Conservative MPs finally overcome their chronic writers’ block and get their 48 letters to Graham Brady. It has become a received wisdom that May has somehow bought herself time by delaying the vote on the withdrawal bill – that she has stayed the executioner’s axe. Yet the opposite is true: by delaying the vote she has created the space for a leadership election.

James Forsyth

It’s time to send Geoffrey Cox – not Olly Robbins – to Brussels

Theresa May is on a tour of European capitals today, while Olly Robbins was spotted back in Brussels yesterday. But it isn’t Robbins who May should have sent to Brussels but Geoffrey Cox, the attorney general. May’s problem right now isn’t technical but parliamentary, how to get the withdrawal deal through the Commons. It isn’t reasonable, or even fair, to expect a civil servant—which is what Robbins is—to have a finger-tip feel for what language or phrase might reassure Tory MPs. Cox, having held dozens of meetings with Ministers and MPs to discuss their concerns about the backstop, is far better placed to do that.

James Kirkup

The lies and liars of Brexit

I started my first job at Westminster in 1994, more than half a lifetime ago. Almost all of my career has been spent watching politicians, talking to politicians, writing about politicians. I covered the case for war in Iraq and the war’s dismal descent into failure. I was part of the Telegraph team writing about MPs expenses. I’ve written about more ministerial resignations, scandals, failures of public policy and abdications of leadership than I can remember. None of those failures has ever left me quite as bewildered and despairing as I am today, pondering the latest act in the national farce that is Brexit. Bewildered, despairing and surprisingly angry.  Surprisingly because I don’t often get angry with politicians.