Uk politics

Wednesday

James Forsyth

Clegg embodies his party’s incoherence

Nick Clegg started the Lib Dem conference with an interview calling for ‘savage cuts’ in public spending and ended it with a speech trying to position the Lib Dems as the main party of the left in Britain. That pretty much sums up the strategic incoherence of this conference which has left the Lib Dems worse off than they were before.   The Lib Dems have had an awful week for several reasons. First, they haven’t done the basics well—putting Clegg up against Obama was hardly clever programming and not informing every spokesperson of policy announcements before the media was told was bound to cause trouble. (How no one thought to tell Julia Goldsworthy of a change that so dramatically impacted on her brief is beyond me).

Lloyd Evans

Nick Clegg at the LibDem conference

What a week for the LibDems. The conference began, as always, with the sound newspapers being arranged across sleeping faces as the mass snore-in started. A few hopeful souls wondered if the LibDems might finally tell us exactly what their party is for. And LibDems went about their usual business of behaving like some cuddly cult for Terribly Nice People. Then everything changed. Out came their true colours and they started scrapping in the sand-pit like a pack of ruthless cockerels. It began with Nick Clegg’s misuse of the word ‘savage’ in reference to cuts. It got worse when Vince ‘Capability’ Cable announced a muddled new levy on million-pound houses. At a stroke the Mansion-Muncher had jeopardised every Liberal Democrat vote in Greater London.

David Blackburn

Government aide resigns over Scotland’s survival

Sky News reports that Stephen Hesford, who was PPS to the law officers, has resigned over the Baroness Scotland scandal. His resignation letter reads: ‘Whilst I have great personal regard for the Attorney General, I cannot support the decision which allows her to remain in office. In my view the facts of the case do not matter. It is the principle which counts, particularly at a time when the publics' trust of Whitehall is uncertain to say the least.’ This is profoundly embarrassing for the government, who can hardly turn around and sack Scotland now. Baroness Scotland’s position is increasingly untenable. She should resign.

James Forsyth

Banging on about Europe will cost the Lib Dems seats

In his interview with the FT, Nick Clegg says that the Lib Dems have been too “reticent” about making Europe a dividing line with the Tories. There’s little doubt that Clegg, a former MEP is an ideological pro-European. But if he starts banging on about Europe he’ll cause his party problems. The Lib Dems have several seats in the South West, one of the most Euro-sceptic regions of the county. As the European elections results there showed, when Europe is the issue the Lib Dems do badly. If Clegg really does intend to make Europe a key campaign dividing line, then the Tories will fancy their chance of picking up a fair few of these South Western marginals.

David Blackburn

Gordon Brown gets something right!

Gordon Brown is expected to offer to decommission one of Britain’s four Trident submarines as part of nuclear non-proliferation discussions at the UN today. The Times has the details: ‘Mr Brown will signal tomorrow that he is ready to negotiate at a meeting of the UN Security Council on nuclear non-proliferation. It follows President Obama’s decision to ditch the US missile defence shield in Eastern Europe. That move, and Russia’s delighted response, has bolstered hopes that a new non-proliferation treaty could be agreed next spring. Officials travelling with the Prime Minister to New York insisted that there was no question of surrendering Britain’s independent nuclear deterrent.

Tuesday

James Forsyth

Tories cock-a-hoop about Lib Dem disarray

Every Tory I have spoken to this week has said the same thing, ‘aren’t the Lib Dems having a terrible time.’ The Tories are particularly happy because they see the Lib Dems’ credibility on economics taking a battering thanks to the total confusion over Cable’s proposed new tax on million-pound homes. They also think that the new Lib Dem policy will hurt the Lib Dems in a lot of the Southern seats the Tories are trying to win—Richmond, Winchester, Meon Valley and Taunton—as well as in three way marginals like Hampstead and Kilburn.   The other thing that is putting a smile on Tory faces is the Lib Dems downgrading their pledge on tuition fees.

David Blackburn

Is bad publicity really better than no publicity?

The Liberal Democrat's party conference is the one occasion when they are guaranteed what they need most: publicity. This year has seen them dominate the headlines, albeit negatively. Unashamedly public in-fighting followed Nick Clegg’s extraordinary pronouncement about “savage cuts”. Steve Webb’s rejection of Clegg’s plans to tighten up ‘middle-class benefits’ and Charles Kennedy’s thinly veiled call to arms against the proposed abolition of the pledge to abolish tuition fees were minor squabbles compared to the Mansions tax debacle. Yesterday, I suggested the proposal was sensible; it isn't.

David Blackburn

Are the knives out for Vince?

This morning it emerged that Julia Goldsworth, the Lib Dems’ communities’ spokesman, who nominally supervises local taxation, knew nothing of the mansion tax until hearing it announced over the radio. The Guardian’s Allegra Stratton writes that Goldsworthy’s disclosure proves that Clegg and Cable run a ‘duopoly on leadership’. Cable is not as popular within his party and resentment is building on the frontbenches. Andrew Neil reports that a private meeting of Lib Dem MPs rounded on Cable and his “suicidal” mansion tax. Also, Stratton was informed by one frontbencher that “Clegg will have to sack Vince” after the election. Cable has begun to resemble the court’s jester rather than its grand vizier.

David Blackburn

The love that dare not speak its name

The Conservatives’ unrequited love for the Liberal Democrats receives attention this morning. The Times' Rachel Sylvetser points out that in reality, away from dreams of government and official opposition, the Lib Dems have everything to gain by giving in to David Cameron’s and Eric Pickles’ serenades: ‘They set themselves up as the party of honesty, who will tell the truth about fiscal restraint, but on the issue over which they have most control — the role they would play in a hung Parliament — they offer only obfuscation. They define themselves constantly in terms of the other two parties, then when it comes to the crunch they refuse to say what demands they would make in return for their co-operation.

David Blackburn

Can Lady Scotland survive?

The BBC understands that the UK Border Agency is expected to find Attorney General Baroness Scotland to be in “technical breach” of the rules on employing migrant workers and faces a fine. This is a civil, not a criminal offence and a government source made it clear that the Baronesses’ resignation is not being sought. But can the government’s senior law officer, who oversaw the drafting of the very legislation that has undone her, retain her position? Her resignation may not be sought, but it’s telling that Macavity’s yet to comment on this development. I suspect that Lady Scotland will 'consider her position'.

Monday

David Blackburn

A dish served better cold

 A great piece of digging by the FT's Jim Pickard: 'In theory we won’t know the exact line-up at Labour Party Conference until the weekend. But I have it on good authority that David Miliband won’t be talking until Thursday - at which point most sane people will have packed up and gone home. Could this be some kind of punishment for his banana-wielding “disloyalty” at last year’s conference? Perish the thought.

David Blackburn

Cable’s attack on the Tories does nothing for the Lib Dem’s credibility

Vince Cable’s caricature of Tory economic policy was so disingenuous that it failed to hit its target. He said: “The Tories propose cuts, carried out in secret behind closed doors after the election, if they win.” The Conservatives have pioneered the cuts debate and the other parties have followed. Although I’d like to see more detailed plans of Tory cuts, the party has been upfront about the necessity for and extent of cuts and where they might be made. Then, Cable contrasted Tory secrecy and centralisation with Liberal openness and localism: “We want an open, democratic debate about priorities. They want to control everything from Whitehall – just like Labour. We believe in local government.

Peter Hoskin

The Tories must ready themselves for the coming tax battle

You may not agree with the specifics, but one of the successes of the Lib Dem conference so far has been to shift the debate about our fiscal recovery from one wholly about spending cuts to one about tax changes too.  This is a necessary step.  For reasons which have been delved into by Danny Finkelstein, spending restraint alone won't be enough to tackle Brown's debt mountain.  There will have to be tax rises.  And, what's more, they will have to be efficient and - as far as possible - fair. These points are made by Jackie Ashley in today's Guardian, who argues that Labour should move as quickly as possible onto the issue of taxes, because they're getting routed when it comes to spending cuts.

David Blackburn

Lib Dems in the limelight

The Lib Dems need eye-catching policies to attract attention and this time round their neon lit policy is a 0.5% levy on houses valued at over £1million. The party forecast levying £1.1bn from the top 1% of rich property owners to raise the income tax threshold to £10,000. The tax will be collected by councils using land registers to identify which properties are liable. It doesn’t follow that families can afford a £2,500 bill just because they happen to own a property worth in excess of £1million. But, providing the levy remains a temporary measure, the proposal is a fair way to fund an income tax threshold rise, the current level of which is unfair.

Sunday

James Forsyth

Blair and Brown, the story that keeps on running and running

Adam Boulton is exceptionally well sourced in the Blair circle so the extract from his updated history of the Blair years makes for fascinating reading. It shows how Blair is carving out a post-premiership in a way that no other ex-British Prime Minister ever has. What is making news, though, is what Boulton reveals about relations between the Blairites and Brownites. In a way, it is no surprise that Blair regards Brown as a quitter not a fighter. Brown’s avoidance of contests where the result is not certain has been a feature of his political career.

David Blackburn

The Lib Dems: not as nice as you think

A story that has escaped largely unnoticed this weekend is the creation of the Liberal Democrat party's sinisterly named ‘anti-Tory attack unit’. Sam Coates has the details in the Times: ‘Nick Clegg has created an anti-Tory attack unit which will focus Liberal Democrat firepower on exposing George Osborne’s “complete inexperience”. In an interview with The Times, Chris Huhne said that specialist staff will be seconded to the new group, which he will chair and will include all the party’s most effective attack dogs, including Norman Baker, Norman Lamb and Lord Oakeshott. Mr Huhne, the party’s home affairs spokesman, will lead the party’s attack at their conference, which begins today in Bournemouth.

Fraser Nelson

The Budget bombshells revealed

An interesting spat is just breaking out over cuts. The Conservatives have a leak from the working of the Budget showing detailed projections in government revenue to 2013-14 covered by all the main Sundays. This suggests income tax rising from £140bn this year to £191bn in four years' time. The Tories say this is not explained by economic growth and that the gap - £15bn - is equivalent to 3p in the basic rate of income tax. Liam Byrne is pushing back, saying Osborne is trying to "mislead the British people" (as if the government would try to do such a thing) and that the increase was accounted for “the economy returning to growth, no more, no less”.

Saturday

Fraser Nelson

Why Vince Cable is not too sexy for his party

For all his celebrity, Vince Cable is not exactly an economic genius - as those who have read his book, The Storm,  will know all to well (Specator review here). But he is seldom tested on this point, as he encounters broadcasters whose line of questioning is normally "tell us, Sage of Twickenham, what is happening." For those who don't regard him as the new Oracle and have wanted  see him put through his paces, Andrew Neil - Cable's former student - gives his old master a grilling on the BBC News Channel. In the interview, Cable gets steadily more irritated (and rumbled) and admits to having flip-flopped. The Cable phenomenon illustrates the gulf between economic and political reporting. As a business hack to went into politics, the contrast has always struck me.

David Blackburn

Liberal moment or Liberal Democrat dilemma?

It’s not often that a man who claims to have bedded and satisfied over 30 women declares that the nation is on the cusp of ‘its liberal moment’, and it’s drawn attention to the Liberal Democrats. With Labour seemingly returning home to the house that Jack Jones built, Nick Clegg should be sweeping the country, but his earnest predictions about a progressive liberal future have made no impression and his party still trails. Why are the Lib Dems doing so poorly? Lloyd Evans’ appraisal that they failed to use the expenses scandal to push their long-standing reform agenda has much to commend it. And today, Polly Toynbee writes a brilliant analysis in the Guardian, observing that the Liberals are caught between a split right/left voting base.

Peter Hoskin

Is Osborne worth it?

Fresh from winning GQ's Politician of the Year award last week, George Osborne now has an accolade he may be even happier with: heavy praise from both Peter Oborne and Matthew Parris.  Both commentators write columns today which dish out the superlatives for Osborne's response to the fiscal crisis, and suggest he has been vindicated by events.  Here's the key passage from Oborne's article, by way of a taster: "Slowly Osborne began to win the argument. First (as I revealed in this column last March), Bank of England governor Mervyn King sent private warnings to the Treasury that he feared extra public spending would damage the official credit ratings that are awarded to the Government as an independent yardstick of the health of the nation's finances.