Uk politics

Thursday

James Forsyth

A conference that changed nothing

The red flag has been sung and the delegates are heading home. But no one I’ve spoken to believes that this conference has really changed anything. Labour is still heading for defeat at the next election.   Perhaps, the biggest thing to come out of this conference is that Labour’s relations with the media are rapidly heading back to where they were in the days of Neil Kinnock. The party is in a rage at both the BBC and Sky News and seems intent on picking a fight with News International. If Labour does carry on running against the media, the only winner will be the Tories. Labour is also falling into that other delusion that parties that are heading for defeat do: believing that no one would vote for the other lot if they knew what they were really like.

James Forsyth

Is Miliband the elder up to the job afterall?

If there was an award for most improved conference speaker it would go to David Miliband. Last year his lacklustre effort helped put an end to his putative leadership challenge. This year he showed delegates why he might be up to the job of being Labour leader after the next election. He has dropped his voice making him sound more serious and cut out the gurning. His comments about military force which sounded so absurd last year carried more weight this time round. However, he’s far from presentationally perfect. He still managed to get ahead of his autocue and hit the microphone with his hand when trying to emphasise a point. But in the leadership stakes the bar was doing better than Ed Balls did yesterday and Miliband sailed over it.

Peter Hoskin

Brown claims it’s 1945 all over again

So we've heard before that Brown is "obsessed" with Winston Churchill and, in his mind, wants to avoid the wartime leader's fate as a Prime Minister who guided Britian through a crisis only to be answered with a thumping in the polls. In which case, it's rather odd that Brown should write this in the campaign document that he's releasing today:   "This is the stark choice facing the British people at the next election. The choice will be as stark as 1945." So who's Brown meant to be?  Churchill or Attlee?  Or some alternate universe Churchill who won the 1945 election?

David Blackburn

Forget referenda. If the Irish vote Yes, a future Conservative government would have to adopt the Lisbon treaty

According to exhaustive polling data, the Irish will vote Yes to the Lisbon treaty. With Czech senators looking set to ratify the treaty also, the probable future Conservative government in this country faces a dilemma: what to do about Lisbon. Simple, says Bill Emmot in the Times. Cameron and Hague must hold their noses because it is in their national and partisan interests to do so. ‘For a new Tory government in Britain, the European scene could not be better, with right-wing parties in power in both France and Germany. The chance is there to seek common cause on an issue dear to Tory hearts, namely defence and the protection of the Nato alliance, under threat from spending cuts and from the dreadful stresses of Afghanistan.

Wednesday

Peter Hoskin

How Cameron responded

A quick post to point out that Fraser's interview with David Cameron - to which CoffeeHousers contributed questions - will be appearing in tomorrow's issue of the magazine.  We'll also be making the article free to all website users tomorrow morning, so you can read the full thing then.  In the meantime, here's a selection of the quotes within it, so you can get a sense of what the Tory leader had to say for himself: Thoughtful radicalism: "What you need is thoughtful radicalism. Prepared radicalism. It needs to come from a solid and strong base. Compare Margaret Thatcher’s trade union reforms with Ted Heath’s.

Jill Kirby

Burnham blocks reform

More evidence today that the TUC is dictating government policy on public services. Nick Timmins in the FT notes that Andy Burnham’s new guidance to health authorities requires them to treat NHS organisations as the “preferred providers” of care, reversing the Blair/Milburn reforms which opened up health care to private suppliers. By insisting that NHS providers have ‘at least two chances to improve’ before failing services are put out to tender, and that NHS staff should have the opportunity to bid not just once but twice for any new service contracts, Burnham is effectively excluding private providers from the process. It’s no surprise that Unison welcomes the move as a ‘significant policy shift.’ No word yet from Andrew Lansley.

James Forsyth

Will Labour go to war with The Sun?

Tony Woodley of the Unite union just received a huge cheer for coming to the podium and ripping up a copy of The Sun while laying into ‘Australian Americans’ who come to this country and try and tell us how to do politics here. There’s no doubt that the feeling here in Brighton is that Labour should hit back at The Sun. Harriet Harman laid into the paper this morning and Peter Mandelson called The Sun ‘losers’ at a fringe event. (However, Labour is denying that its responsible for the Google ads that appeared today saying, "You can't trust The Sun. Wrong on Hillsborough, Wrong on Labour".) But the more Labour pick a fight with The Sun, the more hostile the paper is going to be to it.

Peter Hoskin

When does a joke become a smear?

Paul Waugh highlights a passage from Harriet Harman's speech today: "Contrasting Labour's record on equalities and feminism with that of the Tories, she said that David Cameron would extend foxhunting rights to everyone, while George Osborne would replace a SureStart in every community with 'a lapdancing club in every community'." Now, Paul reports that Harman's people are saying the "lapdancing" bit is merely a "jokey reference to lapdancing club tickets distributed during last year's Tory conference in Birmingham".  But it seems to me that this is a particularly contrived and even nasty attempt to sully an opponent's name.  I expect the Tories can expect more of this dubious treatment as Brown's government fight for their political survival.

James Forsyth

Getting shirty with the media won’t do Labour any favours

The news that the Sun was endorsing the Tories deflated the mood of conference last night. And Labour hang-overs can not have been improved by Brown’s performance on Sky today, which Pete referenced earlier. The Prime Minister was clearly irritated by Adam Boulton’s line of questioning, using the phrase ‘let me finish’ more than any other.  But watching it you couldn’t help wondering if this was a preview of the election campaign: a defensive Brown railing against the media. Andrew Marr asking that question and The Sun endorsing the Tories have bated Labour into running against the media. But there are two fundamental flaws with this strategy.  First, Labour does not have an alternative way of getting its message out.

Peter Hoskin

On this morning’s evidence, Brown’s fightback is already over

If you still haven't made up your mind about whether Brown's speech yesterday will do anything for Labour's chances, then just dash through his interviews with the broadcast media.  Two topics stand out – the Sun's decision to back the Tories, and whether Brown will get involved in a televised debate – and there's little substantive discussion of the agenda that Brown set out in his speech yesterday. Now, you could, like Alastair Campbell, say that this is because the media is hell-bent on portraying Brown in a negative light.  But I'd argue that, aside from some crowd-pleasing passages for the Labour faithful, his speech yesterday was remarkably thin.  Any boost it may have provided is already deflating – and rapidly.

David Blackburn

Did you know? Gordon Brown’s been talking about strong global regulation for years

Well, that’s what he claims anyway. Brown’s extended interview on the Today programme was an exercise in deflecting blame (and the Sun coming out for Cameron) – ‘none of this would have happened if people had listened to me because, you see, I saw it all coming’ was his refrain. This exchange with Jim Naughtie was particularly telling: “JN: Let me take you back to ‘markets without morality’, which was in your speech and you’ve repeated it now. When did you decide that bankers were being greedy and excessive in their demands? GB: Well Jim, you know, I’ve always been of the view that we needed a better global financial supervisory system.

David Blackburn

Who is to blame for the Pilkingtons’ deaths?

I empathise with the jurors who decided the Pilkington case: it is impossible to make sense of this senseless episode. Yet society must ensure that the tragedy is not repeated. The jury, the Home Secretary and even the Opposition, up to a point, all blamed the police. Simon Jenkins’ piece in the Guardian savages the political Establishment’s refusal to address a democratic deficit, which has eradicated local civic leadership, a status quo that leaves the police caught between being a law enforcement force and an organisation that promotes community cohesion, a dual task that it is ill-equipped to perform. ‘Monday's Leicestershire jury verdict on the Pilkington deaths was typical of British public opinion.

Tuesday

Peter Hoskin

The Sun shines on David Cameron

The Sun's Whitehall Editor, David Wooding, has just tweeted that the newspaper will officially back the Conservatives at the next election.  Given the paper's recent editorial stance, it's hardly surprising news.  But it will still delight Team Cameron, and is a blow for Brown in the aftermath of his conference speech.  I expect we'll hear more about it shortly. UPDATE: The relevant Sun story is here, although it's still only showing the opening paragraph.

David Blackburn

Brown’s watch words to defeat

Comment Central’s Alice Fishburn has collated Brown’s buzzwords. It’s revealing that derivatives of ‘choice’ and ‘change’ were used 38 times, whereas the words ‘honest’ and ‘responsibility’ were uttered twice and four times respectively. Given that the public have turned against the government’s running of the economy, Brown was unwise to concentrate on Tory-bashing rather than attempt to emphasise his honesty and sense of responsibility, but perhaps he’s given up on that front. Initially, his Goethe-inspired avowal to dream big and change the world again had me grasping for the gin; but this speech was for the hall first and the voters second, which isn't enough to avoid defeat.

Lloyd Evans

Good enough for Labour

For Brown this was a doddle. He couldn’t fluff it. Expectations have sunk so low that all he had to do today was show up, try not to look too knackered, spout a few revivalist platitudes and make sure he didn’t fall over. The rebellion has stalled, the plotters are paralysed. Those who criticise won’t lead, while those who would lead won’t criticise. Mandy, like a protection racketeer within the cabinet, has enriched himself in the currency of ‘loyalty’ (which in these circumstances means a reluctance to coerce others to be disloyal), and yesterday he couldn’t contain his delight at the scale of his new-found wealth. And so Mr Brown, Mandy’s proudest protégé, appeared at 2 pm today on the Brighton seafront.

Peter Hoskin

What was in Brown’s speech for those turning away from Labour?

Much like Peter Mandelson's address yesterday, Gordon Brown's speech was designed for the Labour Party members inside the conference hall.  It was effectively book-ended by two crowd-pleasing rat-a-tat lists: the first, a rundown of Labour "achievements" which received massive cheers; and the second, a disingenuous account of Tory measures "for the privileged few", designed to draw hisses and boos from the audience.  All very pantomine.  And all very fun, I'm sure, for the party faithful. But what about those voters who are turning away from Labour in their droves?  What was there for them?

Peter Hoskin

Brown’s speech: live blog | 29 September 2009

1404, PH: We'll be live-blogging Brown's conference speech from 1415 onwards.  In the meantime, CoffeeHousers, your thoughts on how our PM will kick things off.  Last year, of course, he got Sarah Brown to introduce him.  Will he repeat the trick this year?  Or will he get someone else?  Mandelson, perhaps?  Or someone off X-Factor?  Or will it be nothing flash, just Gordon?  Your predictions, please... 1405, PH: Brother Massie is also live-blogging the speech here. 1410, PH: Oh, and you can watch the speech here. 1416, PH: So what will Brown actually say?  Well, his announcements on anti-social behaviour and childcare have been heavily trailed.

James Forsyth

Whatever you do in Brighton, don’t mention journalists

Labour activists don’t have much in common with Republican activists but they seem to agree on one thing: the media are loathsome. The hostility towards journalists from the delegates this week reminds me of being at Republican gatherings in 2008. When someone stood up at a fringe meeting yesterday and introduced themselves by saying ‘I am not a journalist’ they received a spontaneous and sustained round of applause. There is a perception that the media are biased and beneath contempt. Undoubtedly this is due in part to Andrew Marr’s inappropriate question to Brown on Sunday morning. But there is something deeper at work, a belief that the press are preventing the party from getting its message out.

Peter Hoskin

Brown’s uncertainty over a TV debate exemplifies his moribund premiership

So what's the story with Brown and the leaders' TV debate?  There were reports, weeks ago, that the PM was going to use his speech today to, ahem, "challenge" his opposite numbers to a debate, but then Sky intervened and Downing Street fell silent.  Last we heard, Brown was veering towards a debate, but was still uncertain about the timing of it all. Now, this morning's FT reports that Brown "spent hours on Monday night agonising" over whether to mention a televised debate in his speech today.  Nick Robinson has followed that up by saying that the relevant passage has been removed from the speech.  If Brown does finally accept a debate, Robinson writes, then he may attach a set of demands which will slow the whole process down.

David Blackburn

Brown is either fleet-footed or indecisive – he cannot be both

Gordon Brown delivers the most important speech of his life this afternoon. Whether that speech can even check the march of the seemingly inevitable is doubtful, but his best chance is to express an alternative strain of personality from the severe and serious man the electorate plainly dislike. Jim Naughtie and Neil Kinnock debated the alleged disparity between Gordon Brown in public and Gordon Brown in private. Kinnock repeated the line that, behind closed doors, Brown is a barrel of laughs, a near dilettante, and he sang the usual ‘if you could see him through my eyes’ chorus.