Uk politics

Saturday

Steerpike

Caption Ed Miliband and see Alex Salmond’s face in the Halloween pumpkins

Even the po-faced Associated Press (video above) couldn't but describe as 'toe-curling' Ed Miliband's encounter with a homeless hijabi. Pundits agree that Ed appeared 'terrified' of the beggar in Manchester. Mr S was there, however - on unrelated business, of course - and can confirm that the opposition leader really did only have 2p in his pocket at the time. (Why on earth would he carry more?) Your correspondent was otherwise engaged, however (in discussion with my equine consultant) in the moment this photo was snapped: [caption id="attachment_8909992" align="alignnone" width="506"] Manchester, 31 October 2014 (Photo: Nigel Roddis/Getty)[/caption] What could have been on his mind?

James Forsyth

Alex Salmond shows how the SNP will fight Labour in 2015

Talk to senior Labour figures about the polls that show them losing 30 or more seats in Scotland, and they say two things. The first is that these polls have been taken at the worst possible moment for them, just after the bitter resignation of the Scottish Labour leader. The second is that when it comes to a UK general election, Scottish voters will—however reluctantly—accept that it is a choice between Labour and the Tories.   But the aftermath of the referendum means that this second point will not apply as strongly as usual. Having campaigned together against independence, Labour and the Tories do not look as dramatically different as they used to in Scotland.

Friday

Molly Guinness

Liberate women…from the rotten dictatorial group-think of ‘feminism’

Good on David Cameron for refusing to wear that hideous T-shirt. Feminists these days spend an awful lot of time telling people what to think and what to wear. It’s easy to forget the heady days of feminism’s innocence, when it lobbied for freedom, the freedom for women to operate telegraphs, for example. The deft fingers of women were to set in action the wires of the telegraph with as much swift dexterity as they do those of the piano. They were to write messages about iron and steel and stocks and shares with the same easy celerity that they corresponded about the last new ribbon or baby's first tooth.

Isabel Hardman

Labour wins South Yorkshire PCC by-election

Labour has won the South Yorkshire Police and Crime Commissioner by-election with 50 per cent of the vote, which is a tremendous relief for the party given the circumstances in which this contest was held. It avoided the contest moving to second preferences by 0.02 per cent, but it has won in every local authority area, including Rotherham, where it beat Ukip by 800 votes. That the party whose PCC stood down over the Rotherham grooming scandal has managed to win a by-election to replace him now raises questions for Ukip. Neither side had called this election, but Ukip did have a very good chance indeed, given the circumstances. They do not have the consolation prize of winning in certain local authority areas such as Rotherham and Doncaster, which they had hoped for.

Nick Cohen

What passing-bells for politicians who die as cattle?

Over the top: British soldiers in the trenches (Image: Getty)The allies did not sweep into Germany in 1918, winning the First World War with the glory and élan of a victorious army. The victors triumphed because they held their disintegrating forces together better than Germany and Austria-Hungary could manage. In the end, and in the case of Italy and France only just, and in the case of Russia not at all, they could just about bear the horrendous casualties and costs; the threat of mutiny at the front and of disease, starvation and revolution at home.

Isabel Hardman

Tories on away day put away hopes of winning Rochester

Tory MPs are in Oxfordshire today for an 'away day'. It's supposed to focus on the autumn statement, but Tory MPs also want to make a few points about the Prime Minister's immigration policies (read Fraser's Telegraph column on the problems with aping Ukip) and others want to complain about the Coalition continuing when the Lib Dems have blocked the EU referendum bill and are complaining about the Tory stance on drugs (this will be in vain, but a good number of backbenchers have told me they want to bring it up anyway). But the funny thing about this away day is that many Tory backbenchers were rather surprised to find themselves travelling to Oxfordshire at all.

Thursday

Steerpike

Jim Murphy – is Scottish Labour dyeing?

While watching Scottish Labour leader frontrunner Jim Murphy launch his campaign today, you might be forgiven for thinking the teetotaller has been hitting the bottle. The bottle of hair dye, that is. There is a noticeable change in tone from when Murphy was a minister in the last Labour government. Mr S doubts that will be the only thing the former right-wing Blairite will be lightening in the coming weeks too.

James Forsyth

Scottish Labour is in crisis; is Jim Murphy the solution?

I suspect that the Scottish Labour gala dinner in Glasgow tonight won’t feel like much of a gala. The Scottish Labour party is in crisis: its leader has quit attacking the UK Labour party for treating it like a ‘branch office’ and now an Ipsos-Mori Westminster voting intention poll has the SNP on 52 per cent to Labour’s 23 per cent. This poll is a reminder of the scale of the challenge facing whoever is the new leader of the Scottish Labour party. I argue in the magazine this week  that Jim Murphy is, by a distance, the best candidate for the job. He has what Scottish Labour so desperately needs right now: energy, no fear of the SNP and its agenda and the ability to win elections. But Murphy’s victory is, by no means, a done deal.

Alex Massie

Boom! Bombshell poll annihilates Labour in Scotland

Grotesque. Unbelievable. Bizarre. Unprecedented. Today's Ipsos-Mori opinion poll is the most astonishing survey of Scottish political opinion in living memory. Perhaps, even, the most remarkable survey of all time. It is, of course, a snapshot not a prediction. The actual election will not produce anything like these numbers. I don't believe the SNP will win 52% of the Scottish vote in May. I don't believe the Labour party will take 23% of votes. And I don't actually believe the Conservatives will only be supported by 10% of voters. Still, there is something happening in Scotland right now. The electorate is volatile. Just a month ago Survation reported Labour's support (amongst decided voters) at 39% and the SNP on 35%.

Isabel Hardman

Meltdown! Shock poll puts Scottish Labour on 4 MPs and the SNP on 54

Just to make Scottish Labour's misery complete - and underline the case for a bold leader who likes winning things - STV have published a poll by Ipsos Mori putting Ed Miliband's party on just 23 per cent, which would see them losing all but four of their Scottish MPs, against 52 per cent support for the SNP, which would get 54 Westminster seats. The question was how would those surveyed vote if there were a general election tomorrow. The Scottish Conservatives would lose their one seat, with 10 per cent of the vote, the Lib Dems would retain one with 6 per cent, while the Greens polled 6 per cent, Ukip 2 per cent and others 1 per cent.

Wednesday

Isabel Hardman

Jim Murphy to stand for Scottish Labour leader

As expected, Jim Murphy has announced he's standing for Scottish Labour Leader. He's given an interview to the Daily Record in which he says he wants to stop 'the Scottish Labour Party from committing self harm': 'I think it is time for a fresh start for the Scottish Labour party,” he said. “I am proud of Labour Party and I am proud of Scotland - but I am not satisfied. 'I want to strike a tone that stops the Scottish Labour Party from committing self harm. I want to unite the Labour Party but more importantly I want to bring the country back together after the referendum. 'I am not going to shout at or about the SNP, I am going to talk to and listen to Scotland and I am very clear that the job I am applying for is to be the First Minister of Scotland.

Isabel Hardman

European Arrest Warrant rebellion shrinks after Cameron pledges pre-Rochester vote

Why did David Cameron set the vote for the European Arrest Warrant for before the Rochester and Strood by-election? It seems to be a way of picking a right-wing sore just at the wrong time. Perhaps he felt bounced into doing it at Prime Minister's Questions. But those involved in the rebellion think it could also be an effective way to quell a sizeable revolt by reminding Tory MPs that being disloyal before the by-election would be a good way to help Mark Reckless win the seat. The rebellion seems, according to some insiders, be shrinking. Others think that given most Tory MPs seem resigned to losing Rochester anyway, it doesn't really matter when the vote is held. Holding it after a loss would mean MPs were angry and felt they had even less to lose.

Steerpike

Did she say that out loud? Gay marriage muddle from Nicky Morgan

Mixed messaging from education secretary Nicky Morgan, who also moonlights as the equalities minister: Despite saying previously that 'marriage to me is between a man and a woman', and voting against gay marriage legislation, today Morgan said she probably would vote for gay marriage, telling the BBC's Today programme that you 'learn' on the job. She went on to claim that she voted no on gay marriage before because of her constiuents were against it. Does their view go out the window at the sniff of high office? And it was clearly not what she was saying at the time...

Ryan Bourne

How to defuse Britain’s £1.45 trillion public-debt time-bomb

Last week’s public-finance statistics were truly dreadful. They showed that despite a year of fairly robust economic growth, UK government borrowing since the start of the financial year 2014 to 2015 was actually 10 per cent higher than in the same period in 2013 to 2014. Once again, it seems, our public finances will be in deficit by more than £100 billion this year. Running sustained deficits of this kind adds to the overall debt burden. According to the new ONS figures, public-sector net debt is currently £1.45 trillion (79.9 per cent of GDP) – meaning we are paying just over £50 billion per year in debt-interest payments.

Fraser Nelson

How Maggie’s ‘swamped’ comment crushed the National Front

The brilliant Matthew Parris writes in his Times column today about Margaret Thatcher using the word 'swamped' in relation to immigration in 1978. We had been averaging 500-700 letters a week when, discussing immigration in a TV interview, Mrs Thatcher used the word “swamped”. In the following week she received about 5,000 letters, almost all in support, almost all reacting to that interview. I had to read them. We were swamped indeed: swamped by racist bilge. It’s the things people confide in you when they think you’re one of them that can be so revealing. But there is another part of this story that Matthew leaves out. On election night in 1979 various experts were lined up to discuss what was expected to be a National Front breakthrough.

Isabel Hardman

What would a Ukip win in the South Yorkshire PCC by-election tell us?

Before the by-election battle with Ukip in Rochester that Westminster is rather obsessed with, there's another chance for Nigel Farage's party to cause a political earthquake. Tomorrow, voters in South Yorkshire will go to the polls to elect a new police and crime commissioner to replace Shaun Wright, who eventually resigned after the Rotherham child abuse scandal. Ukip is fighting a vigorous campaign in this PCC election, launching posters at the weekend that read 'there are 1,400 reasons why you should not trust Labour again', with a picture of a teenage girl on them. The party's candidate Jack Clarkson does have a good chance of winning the seat from Labour, which will cause serious jitters.

Tuesday

Isabel Hardman

Liam Fox launches One Minute Fox campaign

Liam Fox has launched a series of 'One Minute Fox' videos in which he sets out his position on various hot issues from the threat of fundamentalism to welfare reform. He unveiled the series - which he says will become more controversial as the election approaches - to a group of Conservative MPs this evening. Intriguingly, none of the videos mentions Conservatism or have any party branding, but they are branded in his own name, which may of course come in handy in the future. Cynics might say that the videos are about a future leadership campaign, but the explicit aim is to communicate Conservative ideas to undecided voters without putting them off right away- and to do so in a simple and quick format that they'll actually watch.

Isabel Hardman

Who’s playing dirty politics on Lord Freud and welfare? Everyone

The main business of the day in the House of Commons is Labour's debate on Lord Freud, a row that blew up nearly a fortnight ago. The party's motion, entitled 'Parliamentary Under-Secretary for Welfare Reform and disabled people', finishes with '. . . this House has no confidence in the Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Welfare Reform; and calls on the Prime Minister to dismiss him.' It's not a wise move to put any money on David Cameron meeting this demand, given that Freud apologised on the same day his comments about disabled people and the minimum wage were raised at Prime Minister's Questions. Unless you've got a lot of time on your hands, it might not be wise to sit through the entire debate, both sides of which can be summarised in these three points: 1.

Isabel Hardman

Can George Osborne quibble away shock EU bill?

What's next for David Cameron's tussle with Brussels? The Prime Minister made clear yesterday that 'we are not paying a sum anything like' the £1.7 billion demanded by the European Commission last week, and now the focus is on how much he can get the bill reduced by. He will have to pay a bill, but to maintain credibility, the Prime Minister must end up paying something much smaller than the original demand. Next week George Osborne and other European finance ministers will hold emergency talks on the bill, and today Number 10 set out what the Chancellor plans to say at those talks.