Tories

Awkward, especially here, I know, but there you have it. But, look, if any other high-profile politician were suggesting the burden of proof in criminal trials should be switched from the accuser to the accused we'd be properly - in both senses - appalled. So we should be appalled that Boris suggests in his Telegraph column today that anyone travelling to Iraq or Syria should be presumed a jihadist unless and until they can prove otherwise. The state will not have to make a case you convict you but you must make a case to avoid conviction. And, lo, centuries of criminal law are undone. Worse still, I think, Boris considers this 'a minor change' to the law. What, one wonders, would constitute a major change? 'It is hard' Boris laments, 'to press charges without evidence'.

After Obama sanctioned attacks on ISIS over the weekend, a new hashtag began to trend on Twitter  - #AmessagefromISIStoUS. Via social media, militants from the Islamic State began to threaten anyone who dared to get involved in the Middle East. Before long, the backlash began, with Americans sending messages back to jihadis under the hashtag #AmessagefromUStoISIS. The ex-Tory MP Louise Mensch couldn't resist, and duly joined in this hawkish exchange: It's true Obama got #ISIS all wrong and Iraq policy all wrong but I don't care, not today. He is sending airstrikes. Thank you Mr. President — Louise Mensch (@LouiseMensch) August 8, 2014 Some left wingers pretty upset ISIS are being bombed. I'm throwing a party.

There are two reasons why David Cameron’s cull of the ‘Uglies’ – the Conservative ministers who don’t perform well on camera – had to be so vast. The first is that the Tories need an unprecedented increase in support in order to secure an outright majority – but they have a weak brand that doesn’t appeal to the electorate. With the exception of David Cameron, Tories don’t appeal to the public – because they don’t look like them. That’s something that couldn’t have be fixed with a little light pruning, lopping off just one or two grey-haired junior ministers. The second is that Cameron needed new, different faces to take advantage of Labour’s vulnerabilities.

But for Europe, eh? It is a mark of how thoroughly the European issue has poisoned Tory waters that many party activists - and MPs - will be celebrating the end of Ken Clarke's ministerial career tonight. Not before time, many of them will doubtless froth. Well, maybe. But it bears remembering that the Tories who hated Clarke the most tend, more often than not, to be the Tories the public hates most. The kind of Conservatives good at losing elections and rather less good at winning them. That does not mean Clarke was always right or that his judgement was necessarily routinely sound. Nevertheless it is something to be kept in mind. Would the Conservatives have been better or worse off these past 20 years with more or with fewer politicians like Ken Clarke?

The first, and perhaps most important, thing to say about the 2015 general election is that it is Labour's to lose. The second thing to say is that Ed Miliband might be just the man to do it. Nevertheless and despite Miliband's awkwardness Tory optimists should ask themselves a very simple question: Which seats will we win in 2015 that we failed to win in 2010? Perhaps a handful will be taken from the Lib Dems and perhaps another handful can be snatched elsewhere but, overall, the battlefield picture is pretty damn bleak. But perhaps Labour will help. Miliband's problem is that his position is not secure to hunker down, do bugger all, and just wait for victory. He must move.

It's tempting given the optimistic mood on the Conservative benches at the moment to think that everything is just great with the economy. Not so, according to today's borrowing figures from the ONS, which show that government borrowing was higher than expected: George Osborne borrowed £13.3bn in May, up £0.7bn from the same month last year, and much higher than the £9.35bn forecast. Tax receipts have been weaker than expected, which has contributed to higher net borrowing. [datawrapper chart="http://static.spectator.co.uk/L158N/index.html"] Labour is saying that Osborne is now set to break his promise to balance the books by next year, while also arguing that it will balance the books but 'in a fairer way'.

There is much to enjoy in Dominic Cummings' glorious attack on the ghastliness of Britain's political system. It is a cri-de-coeur from a man who, whatever else may be said of him (and his enemies have plenty to say), has given the matter some thought. Westminster will swoon at the criticisms of Cameron ('a sphinx without a riddle'), Ed Llewellyn ('a classic third-rate suck-up-kick-down sycophant presiding over a shambolic court') and Craig Oliver ('just clueless')  but that's just the gags, really. The substance is elsewhere. As in: “MPs have no real knowledge of how to function other than via gimmick and briefings. That’s also how No 10 works. It’s how all of them are incentivised to operate.

The reaction to the Trojan Horse scandal has, in my view, been as interesting - and telling - as anything in the scandal itself. It is not, of course, surprising that opposition parties, including the Liberal Democrats, should seek to make capital from the drama in Birmingham but the manner in which they do so remains valuably illuminating. Gove-bashing plays well with the loyal remnants of the Lib Dem base and given the choice between pandering to his base or defending liberalism Nick Clegg must these days pander to his base. So be it. The case of Tristram Hunt is more interesting. The dismal thing about Ed Miliband's leadership of the Labour party is the manner in which he appears determined to abandon the noblest parts of his inheritance.

[audioplayer src="http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/TheViewFrom22_5_June_2014_v4.mp3" title="Zac Goldsmith, Chris Skidmore and Fraser Nelson discuss the latest Tory wars" startat=40] Listen [/audioplayer]Modern Conservatives seem to be allergic to success. Every time things are going right, the party spasms. Sir John Major’s government nurtured a remarkable economic recovery, yet was beaten after its infighting appalled voters. In opposition, David Cameron acquired a habit of blowing opinion poll leads — a habit he did not, alas, shake off in time for the general election. And now, just as a Conservative victory at the next election looks likely, the party has decided to lose its head again.

Perhaps. Because when you cross the Rubicon you obliterate a line in the sand. Or something like that, anyway. Ruth Davidson was elected leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party on a platform promising no more concessions to the SNP. She was the candidate favoured by the party establishment, the candidate for continuity not change. By contrast, Murdo Fraser's tilt for the leadership argued that the party should dissolve itself and start again. Four in ten Tory members voted for euthanasia. The publication today of the Strathclyde Commission's report on further devolution of powers to the Scottish parliament is perhaps best understood as a synthesis of the Davidson and Fraser approaches.

I can understand why some of my Conservative colleagues are calling for a pact with Ukip. At varying times over the past few years I have been concerned that our party isn't doing enough to respond to the electorate's hunger for an EU referendum, and I agreed that Ukip put necessary pressure on all political parties, and especially on the Conservatives in getting them to commit to a European referendum. However, time has moved on and the Conservative Party—and the country—now has that pledge. This is a time to hold our individual and collective nerve – and not to make knee-jerk decisions while we're focussed on today's results and not the broader political landscape. The local election results have removed some able and experienced Conservative Councillors.

The British economy is growing. Not before time you might say. Be that as it may, there is a breath of summer in the air after a long winter. The quickening recovery has the Tories in jauntier spirits than for some time. The polls are closing. The Conservatives are within the margin of error and though the odds may remain it is no longer utterly fanciful to think they might remain the largest party at Westminster next year. What ho and what larks, good news is all around. Except in the north. Always the contrary north. A chill wind blows from North Britain and the message it bears should warn David Cameron he's being used by his enemies. Scottish nationalists endlessly carp that Unionists are obsessed with Alex Salmond. A vote for independence is not, per se, a vote for Mr Salmond.

Why do the Tories have a problem with black and ethnic minority voters, daddy? It is, with all due respect to Isabel and Paul Goodman, the British political question that is easiest to answer. We all know the answer too, even those of us on the right. Race might not be the Conservative party's original sin; it's still a pretty high-ranking sin. And, look, it's not ancient history either. It's not a Different times, different attitudes but, please, can we move on now? kind of thing. Nor did it die with Enoch either. (Poor old Enoch, so brilliant but a touch troubled too, don't you think?

Today's GDP figures are another sign that the recovery is strengthening. The 0.8 per cent growth in the first quarter is equivalent to more than 3 per cent annual growth. This means that the UK is on course to have the fastest growing economy in the G7 this year. The rapid fire press releases from Osborne, Alexander and Clegg this morning all strive to avoid saying that the job is done. But with the economy having grown 3.1 per cent since this time last year, it is clear that the economy is now on a far healthier trajectory. No one can say that it is bumping along the bottom anymore. The crucial political question is, as always, when and how many voters will feel the benefits of the recovery. My sense is that by the autumn more people will be beginning to feel it.

Like everyone else, I've often been mean about the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party. I recall suggesting they were the worst, most useless political party in the world. Fushionless and quite possibly beyond redemption. But hark this shipmates, something is afoot and there are, titter ye not, modest grounds for modest optimism in Tory circles. After what was, I think it fair to say, a steep learning curve in her early days as leader Ruth Davidson is coming into her own. She has a poise and a stature that was not apparent even a year ago. The party's recent conference in Edinburgh was a success and her speech her best since becoming leader. Why, the Tory vote has even been nudging upwards in local council by-elections.

Hanging. Shooting. Beheading. Defenestration. Take your pick. It doesn't matter which method you choose but the government minister who told The Guardian's Nick Watt that "of course" there would be a deal to be done creating a sterling zone shared by an independent Scotland and the remaining parts of the United Kingdom needs to be found, summarily tried, and executed. Game-changing moments, of course, are rarely anything of the sort. Political campaigns do not pivot on individual moments or blunders. Fundamentals matter more. And yet the fundamentals are in turn shaped by the accretion of a thousand impressions. At least in part. The campaigning matters too. Especially in a close race.