Snp

Labour’s Secret Weapon: Stupidity

I don't think this is a very good idea: Senior staffers in Ed Miliband’s office started briefing Scottish hacks last night that Miliband is now going to take a much more "hands on" approach to the campaign. Miliband has only made one, brief appearance in the campaign so far. But he and Ed Balls are due to be in Scotland this week to push a more strident "anti-independence" message. I suppose it's possible that this might resurrect Labour's fortunes but it seems unlikely. And that's partly because Labour have run such a drab, dreary, depressing campaign. Their principle approach to policy has been to thieve stuff from the SNP and rewrap it in Labour cloth, trusting that voters will think it belonged to Labour all along.

Balls and Miliband to rescue Labour’s Scottish campaign…

Can Ed Miliband and Ed Balls save Labour in Scotland? The two Labour heavyweights have decided to move in to rescue their party's disastrous campaign in Scotland — with Balls being sent up north to sharpen his party's teeth. A desperate measure for a desperate situation: Labour has not only blown a 10-15 point lead over the SNP in just a few weeks, but now languishes some 10-13 percentage points behind. A mammoth, humiliating defeat looms. Until now, Labour has liked to portray its campaign for the Holyrood elections as a totally Scottish affair: run in Scotland, organised in Scotland and led by Scottish politicians. Not any more.

Local hero fears complacency as Labour disintegrates

The SNP have this morning been put a whopping 13 points above Labour in the Scottish Parliament race: on 45 percent and 46 percent of the vote in two separate polls. Given that they went into this election campaign somewhere around 35 percent, this represents a huge leap giving them a near-impregnable lead in the Holyrood race. And that's what's worrying them in SNP headquarters. Salmond's strategists, packed into a third-floor office suite behind the Scottish Parliament fear that – in the words of one senior Nationalist – “we have gone too early”. That Labour may now plausibly play the underdog card, and SNP votes may be inclined to stay at home thinking that it's in the bag.

The Sun Shines on Salmond

Severin Carrell reports that tomorrow's edition of the Sun will endorse Alex Salmond and the SNP. This should not surprise anyone. I suspect most of the Scottish press will support, albeit with significant qualifications, the Nationalists. The most significant of those qualifications is that this is a Holyrood election, not a Westminster one. Endorsing the SNP does not require anyone to support independence it's merely making the best of a poor job and recognising that the Nats are a more attractive choice than Labour. The press is prepared to back Salmond but only because independence is not on the immediate or even medium-term agenda. If it were the Nats would find themselves defriended by many of their erstwhile backers in the press.

Muckle Eck’s Big Mo

Scotland on Sunday publishes a thumper of a poll today that suggests the SNP is on course to defeat Labour and remain the largest party at Holyrood. In fact, John Curtice's calculations have the Nats taking 55 seats to Labour's 49. The Tories, meanwhile, slip to 14 while the Lib Dems suffer a catastrophe and would be left with just six MSPs, just ahead of the Greens with five seats. Should this poll be accurate and should the election - which is still 18 fun-stuffed days away - produce a result of this sort then happy days indeed. By which I mean, of course, not-as-desperate-as-they-might-have-been-days. Kenny Farquharson lays it on a little thickly this morning when he contrasts the SNP's campaign of "hope" with Labour's fear-based approach but he is, in essence, correct.

Burying the dead

Lockerbie is back in vogue. The Telegraph reports that Mi5 has ‘conclusive evidence’ that Moussa Koussa was ‘directing operational and intelligence gathering activities against Libyan dissidents’ and organising support for terror groups. Koussa is expected to meet with Scottish prosecutors later this week to discuss the Lockerbie bombing. Also, the Libyan rebels have pledged to assist British security services investigate Gaddafi’s sponsorship of terrorism, particularly the IRA. Anything that brings Gaddafi and his most murderous henchmen to justice will give solace to victims. But no amount of water can wash away the grubby circumstances of al-Megrahi’s release.

One More Trip on the SNP-Labour Fantasy Coalition Merry-go-round

Crivvens, the idea of an SNP-Labour coalition refuses to die. Here's Iain Macwhirter in the Herald: The rule seems to be that, in Scottish politics it’s easier to work constructively with parties you don’t agree with than with parties you do. Labour and the SNP now agree – independence aside – on most of the big issues, such as NHS privatisation, comprehensive education, free university tuition, more powers for Holyrood. But unfortunately they hate the sight of each other. Could they ever bury their differences? Most polls suggest that this is the coalition partnership Scots would most like to see. A grand coalition, perhaps, against the Tory cuts. Scotland’s two national parties working together for the common good. It’s not going to happen.

Scotland is a conservative country

The Scottish Centre for Social Research has released its latest survey of Scottish attitudes. It confirms that SNP government at Holyrood has reduced the appetite for independence. For now it's George Robertson 1 Tam Dalyell 0. The financial crisis has doubtless helps explain this but is not the whole explanation. No, the findings (conveniently) offer support for my contention that the SNP vote is as much a cultural phenomenon as a political judgement on what's best for Scotia. Is is an affirmation of identity, not a call for the break-up of Britain (or, if you want to put it this way: independence).

Iain Gray’s Remarkable No-Man Band

Meanwhile, STV have a poll asking punters who they think would make the best First Minister. The results are almost entertaining: Don't Know - 37% Alex Salmond - 30% None of Them - 16% Annabel Goldie - 9% Iain Gray - 7% Tavish Scott - 2% Remember that the same poll has Labour and the SNP neck and neck (38% to 37% on the constituency vote and 35% each on the list vote) and so, by my calculations, fewer than one in five Labour voters will tell pollsters their so-called leader is the best man to head the government after this election. Mr Gray complains that the SNP are a "one-man band" which is reasonable enough even if one suspects he'd have been out-polled by Nicola Sturgeon too. But even if he is correct he merely invites the observation that his own party is a no-man band.

Dogs Will Not Lie Down With Cats.

I'm fonder of wacky political hypotheticals than the next fellow but even I draw the line at Sunder Katwala's assertion that some people can see a path towards a Labour-SNP coalition in Edinburgh. This is splendidly creative but also, alas, untethered to reality. The party leaders - apart from the Green's Patrick Harvie who has been excluded, perhaps unfairly - gather for their first debate tonight. You can, my friends, watch the drama here. You will notice that Labour-SNP relations are chilly. There is not the slightest reason to suppose that either party would have any interest in governing in partnership with the other. Who is going to tell Iain Gray that despite being, perhaps, the larger party Labour will have to settle for the Deputy First Minister's position?

Eck The Comeback Kid?

Though this blog has tried to ignore the fact, there are elections to the Scottish Parliament this year. In just over ten weeks time in fact. I've ignored the subject because, frankly, the idea of Iain Gray - he's the leader of the Labour party in Scotland - becoming First Minister is too depressing to contemplate before the idea is thrust upon us by cruel reality and dastardly necessity. Mr Gray is the fifth person to lead Labour's Holyrood group since devolution and by some hefty distance the least impressive. This is a low bar to fail to clear but there you have it. For months now it has looked as though Labour would "win" the right to govern with no new ideas at all.

The Looming Liberal Democrat Paradox

You know, when you see that Neil Clark has written a piece for the Guardian arguing that, from his perspective, this government is even worse than Margaret Thatcher's you might expect to be entertained but you don't anticipate him making sense. But, lo, here he is: [...] Clegg, and his fellow Orange Book Liberals, are actually more keen on market forces and globalised capitalism than the so-called Tory wets were. In last year's election, the free market fundamentalism of the Liberal Democrats was ignored by many commentators and voters who saw their opposition to Labour's security measures, and their advocacy of electoral reform, as evidence that the party was progressive.

Oh Christ, Bloody Lockerbie Again

Whaddyaknow, Wikileaks have some Lockerbie-related cables? Unfortunately they're only about the release of Abdelbaset Ali al-Megrahi and so less interesting - or perhaps simply less illuminating - than Lockerbie-related cables from the investigation and trial years might be. The Guardian's headline is typically tendentious: Lockerbie bomber freed after Gaddafi's 'thuggish' threats. This is true in as much as Gaddafi threatened to cut-off British business interests in Libya and then Megrahi was released. It is not true however that, as the headline implies, Megrahi was freed because of those threats.

Who got good value-for-money in the general election?

Coffee House has wrung today's party expenditure figures through the calculator to produce the colourful graphs below. As the headings suggest, they show how much was spent by each party* for every individual vote and seat they won in the general election: *That is, each party that received over 100,000 votes. Excluding Northern Ireland-based parties.

The Scottish Nationalist Pathology

Commenting on this post, "Robert the Bruce 2.0" complains: Scotland has its own Government, Parliament, Courts, Legal System, Royal Household, Great Offices of State, Flag, Banner, Badge, Anthem, Language, Lingo, Sense of Identity, Country and Football Team. It is a Nation that is more than capable of standing on its own feet. Yet now, under Devolution and ' Devolution 2.0' it is treated as a semi-autonomous and semi-detached region of the UK. In a constitutional settlement that is patronising and insulting. If independence is good enough for the Irish, the Israelis and the Icelandic it should be good enough for Scotland too. Unless, of course, the people of Scotland consider themselves too lazy, too ineffectual and too feckless to take responsibility for their own futures.

Devolution 2.0: A Centre-Right Revival?

On this, at least, there is consensus: devolution has proved a disappointment. How could it be otherwise when the Scottish parliament was granted power without responsibility? A parliament that may spend but cannot raise money is but half a parliament. Politicians like spending even more than they like taxing; removing that latter part of the deal leaves the equation unbalanced. It encourages the attitude that more money is the answer to every public policy problem and, in Scotland, has reinforced an already distressingly statist consensus. Yesterday's Scotland Bill, then, is a modest step forward. The proposals, based on the Calman Commission's recommendations, are needlessly complex and, in places, batty but they may be thought better than nothing and an advance on a failed status quo.

Another Irish Loser: Alex Salmond

There are precious few heroes in Ireland today and no gods either. But not all the losers are Irish either. Some are Scottish. Chief among them, Alex Salmond and the Scottish National Party. Not because an independent Scotland would necessarily have been destroyed by the financial tsunami that swept the globe (though, to put it mildly, it would have been "difficult" to cope and might well have required a humiliating begging-trip to London) but because an independent Scotland would have made some of the same mistakes and unfortunate assumptions that have helped cripple poor Hibernia. Europe, you see, was an important part of the SNP's slow rise to power. At the time, it seemed a masterstroke: "Independence in Europe" offered the best of all worlds - sovereignty and safety.

Weak, weak, weak

Weak again. For the second session in a row Miliband was feeble at PMQs. He opened in his quiet-assassin mode with a quickie question. ‘There are reports that the government is planning changes to housing benefit reforms. Are they?’ Clearly he meant to wrong-foot Cameron by tempting him into admission which could be instantly disproved. But Cameron simply denied the suggestion and Miliband had no embarrassing disclosure to fire back with. Pretty duff tactics there. He fared slightly better when he asked Cameron what advice he’d give to a family facing a 10 percent cut in housing benefit after the chief bread-winner had been unemployed for a year. Cameron replied that unlimited benefits ‘are a serious disincentive to work.

The unavoidable cruelty of necessary cuts

Even though the SDSR promises that it "will be used by units returning from Germany or retained for other purposes," the loss of RAF Kinloss will still be a body blow to Moray. For years, it has sustained hundreds of airforce families in Elgin, Forres and Nairn - mine amongst them. And I can picture the bakeries, shops and other small businesses that will be hit by losing so many clientele. About 6,000 jobs depend on the RAF up there: not just Kinloss but Lossiemouth, 15 miles away, whose future also looks bleak. Jet fuel for the Tornados in Lossie is sent via Inverness harbour, so it would mean job losses there. The downgrading of Kinloss, of course, means the end of Nimrods.

Salmond Derangement Syndrome

The main sufferers of this admittedly rare condition are London-based Scots. Fraser, I'm afraid, seems to have come down with a case of SDS if this post is anything to go by. The murder of Linda Norgrove is a ghastly, horrid business that might, one would think, be considered sufficiently awful to be above or beyond politics. Apparently not. I see nothing wrong far less anything political in the First Minister issuing a statement about the murder of one of his compatriots in Afghanistan. Criticising Salmond for making cheap political capital out of such an awful business is itself a cheap journalistic shot.