Snp

I know some readers have tired of Scotland's independence debate. That is understandable, even forgivable. It has, after all, been rumbling along for 40 years. There may only be six weeks of campaigning left but these arguments won't go away. You'll be hearing them again and again for the next few years at least. This is true even if Scotland does vote Yes next month. Because the argument about Scotland's place within the Union is really not very different from the argument about Britain's place within the European Union. Of course the similarities are not absolute but they are significant enough to be striking.

Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP deputy leader, is busy claiming that post the Glasgow games the momentum will be with the Yes side in the referendum. But this claim is contradicted by the Survation poll in today’s Mail on Sunday which shows support for Yes marginally down on last month. The Yes campaign’s last best chance to gain the ‘big mo’ that it needs comes in Tuesday night’s debate between Alex Salmond and Alistair Darling. Alex has written about why he doesn’t think this debate will be a game changer, but with a million Scots expected to tune in, Salmond isn’t going to have a better opportunity to try and turn things round. But the dilemma for Salmond is how to approach this debate.

The BBC should probably think about issuing a public warning before it starts broadcasting the Commonwealth Games from Glasgow tonight. Something along the lines of ‘viewers of a nervous disposition should look away now (and for the next two weeks)’. That should cover it. Why? Because, for some English viewers, the coverage from Glasgow 2014 might be more than a bit unsettling. Here we are, just eight weeks from the referendum on Scottish independence and our screens are suddenly going to be filled with kilts, Saltires and songs dedicated to sending the English ‘home tae think again’.

There are many reasons for this but let's begin with the first and simplest: it is the British Broadcasting Corporation. Who could have imagined that an organisation that, rightly or not, sees itself as both creator and guardian of much of modern Britain's identity and culture might think itself threatened by a movement hell-bent on destroying, or at least significantly changing, that identity and culture? I know, me neither. Now of course the BBC is not consciously or deliberately biased against the SNP and against Scottish independence. It is scrupulous about ensuring 'No' voices are balanced by 'Yes' voices just as, in other areas and debates it does its best to be seen as an impartial, disinterested, referee.

Listen: listen to ‘Spectator debate: independence is the greatest threat to Edinburgh’ on Audioboo.

In the new Scotland people may be able to count. Until then we will endure nonsense like yesterday's hoopla claiming there were 100 days until the referendum when there were, in fact, 101. Peevishness aside, the campaign now enters its final stages. Not before time, you may think. You would not be alone in reckoning so. For every person energised by the campaign (and many folk have been) there's at least one thirsting for it to end. Not that it will, of course. If the Yes side wins more than 40 per cent of the vote (and especially it it takes more than 45 per cent) this thing will rumble on and on. Until, as one nationalist put it to me recently, "we win". As matters stand - which is to say, if the referendum were held tomorrow - Scotland would vote No.

Perhaps. Because when you cross the Rubicon you obliterate a line in the sand. Or something like that, anyway. Ruth Davidson was elected leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party on a platform promising no more concessions to the SNP. She was the candidate favoured by the party establishment, the candidate for continuity not change. By contrast, Murdo Fraser's tilt for the leadership argued that the party should dissolve itself and start again. Four in ten Tory members voted for euthanasia. The publication today of the Strathclyde Commission's report on further devolution of powers to the Scottish parliament is perhaps best understood as a synthesis of the Davidson and Fraser approaches.

Here's the thing many people misunderstand about Scotland's referendum on independence: it isn't really very much to do with England. When someone starts chuntering on about Braveheart and Bannockburn you know you're listening to a fruitcake. This is true whether the fruitcake is Scots or English. At least the latter have the excuse of ignorance, I guess. Anyway, the point is that as much as we may occasionally dislike or, more frequently, be irritated by the English they're not the problem. The people we really hate are our fellow Scots. And with good reason. I mean, look at us. The worst part of losing the referendum (whichever side you favour) is having to share a country with the winners. I spy much unhappiness. So I enjoyed Iain Macwhirter's column in today's Herald.

Yippee! The number-crunching boffins are at war again. The UK and Scottish governments have today released rival forecasts for life in an independent Scotland. It will not surprise you that the UK government's projections run towards the pessimistic side of the ledger while their opponents in Edinburgh take a sunnier view of Scotland's future economic circumstances and performance. Fancy that! The Scottish government suggests there might be £5bn windfall from independence; the UK government reckons each Scot receives a 'Union dividend' worth something like £1,400 a year.  They can't both be right. In fact the probability is they are both wrong. That is, Scotland's fiscal and economic position would be neither as bleak as London suggests nor as rosy as Edinburgh claims.

Alex Salmond and David Cameron have more in common than a shared appreciation for Andy Murray's tennis. Not, of course, that you would ever persuade either of them to admit that. At the very least, their supporters are more alike than either man would like you to believe. A new survey commissioned by Dundee University's Five Million Questions project confirms as much. On a range of issues SNP supporters are as close, or closer, to Tory voters as they are to Labour voters: [datawrapper chart="http://static.spectator.co.uk/M9xAk/index.html"] This will not surprise diehard leftists, of course. If the First Minister was ever a socialist he ceased to be a comrade long ago and if SNP voters think* like Tories that may be because a good number of them used to be Tories.

'Utter fucking bollocks'. In case that's not clear enough for you, the suggestion that Alistair Darling is being replaced as the head of the Better Together campaign is, as one insider puts it, 'absolute horseshit'. Douglas Alexander, the man replacing Darling according to the Daily Mail, was at the Better Together HQ in Glasgow earlier today and, I understand, mildly surprised to learn of his elevation. Then again, the Mail only reports that there will be 'no formal announcement of a change' merely a 'secret agreement' that Alexander should effectively supplant Darling. So secret, however, that no-one involved appears to have heard of it.

The British economy is growing. Not before time you might say. Be that as it may, there is a breath of summer in the air after a long winter. The quickening recovery has the Tories in jauntier spirits than for some time. The polls are closing. The Conservatives are within the margin of error and though the odds may remain it is no longer utterly fanciful to think they might remain the largest party at Westminster next year. What ho and what larks, good news is all around. Except in the north. Always the contrary north. A chill wind blows from North Britain and the message it bears should warn David Cameron he's being used by his enemies. Scottish nationalists endlessly carp that Unionists are obsessed with Alex Salmond. A vote for independence is not, per se, a vote for Mr Salmond.

Well some of them are anyway. Consider the tweet above. It's since been deleted and you can see why. Gerry Adams' arrest might not be an obvious element of the Pan-Unionist Conspiracy but if you think that you lack the imagination necessary to be the wilder kind of Scottish nationalist. Then again paranoia is a consequence of monomania and breathtaking solipsism. Of course it's just a tweet and only a single one at that. But there are plenty others like it. And yes, for sure, there are loonies on the Unionist side too. There really are people who think Alex Salmond evil and, lord knows, there are any number of Unionists making daft claims about the consequences of independence. But it's nationalists - or Yes voters - who need to make the case for change.

You don't mean a thing if your seat ain't a swing. As this saying goes, political campaigning in safe seats is usually a thankless task — unless you are Nigel Farage. Last week, he managed to pack out The Sage concert hall in ultra-safe Labour Gateshead for Ukip’s biggest ever-public meeting. By going back to the simple idea of touring the country (even the sceptical parts) and giving speeches, Farage is appealing directly to the voters left behind by the other parties. He told the 1,200-odd assembled crowd of my fellow Geordies: ‘We are here to say that Labour used to stand up for the people in this region, but they have turned their backs on you in favour of the European project. Well, UKIP will stand up for you now.