Russia

The year 2014 will be remembered for an unprecedented juxtaposition of events. Two oil-producing countries in the Middle East were in a state of crisis. Relations between the West and Russia slumped to a new Cold War low. And oil prices have slumped, to $66 a barrel for Brent Crude this morning, half its recent peak. This didn’t used to happen. The modern history of oil prices is characterised by a series of spikes, each one coinciding with a crisis in the Middle East. It is a mark of how US shale gas and oil production has changed the oil market – and thus the prospects for the global economy. Never has a theory collapsed so quickly as Peak Oil, the idea that fossil fuel prices would rise inexorably as supply failed to keep track of demand.

The most sobering column you’ll read today is the FT’s Gideon Rachman, no doom monger, warning about the risk of a nuclear war. Rachman is concerned about how quick Vladimir Putin’s Russia now is to rattle the nuclear sabre. Now, as Rachman points out, part of the reason that Russia does this is to make the West think that it might just use these weapons. But the worry is that Putin might miscalculate. For instance, if the Russians did in one of the Nato member Baltic states what it has done in Ukraine, the situation could get out of hand very quickly. What makes this more alarming is the possibility of another global economic crisis.

From The Spectator, 14 November 1914: The Spectator for the last twenty years has urged that the Russians are the appropriate successors of the Turks at Constantinople. Russia is by far the greatest of the Black Sea Powers, and she ought to be given the key to her own back door— the possession of the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles being conditioned, of course, by the guarantee of free access to the Black Sea for the shipping of other Powers, on the lines that govern the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal. We do not doubt for a moment that Russia will be perfectly willing to make such an agreement. That Russia must be given a stretch of territory which will enable her to reach Constantinople by land is obvious.

In simple entertainment terms Citizenfour isn’t as interesting as watching paint dry. It is more like watching someone else watching paint dry. People with opinions on Edward Snowden tend to divide into those who think he’s one of the biggest heroes of all time and those who think he’s at least one of the worst patsies or traitors of all time. Either way it’s hard to imagine why either party would want to watch two hours of footage of him typing on a keyboard. And then typing some more. While the camera focuses on him from the other side of the keyboard. For a very long time. Neither is it obvious why we should wish to watch footage of him staring out of a window. Or gelling his hair.

Putin, at least 12-foot-high, glowers from the wall of a gym where men are training to wrestle. He is at the centre of an unnerving triptych. On his left is the image of Akhmad Kadyrov, the former President of the Chechen Republic who was assassinated by Islamists in 2004. To his right is Akhmad’s son, Ramzan Kadyrov, now Chechnya’s president, and instigator of a personality cult that manifests itself in everything from Instagram posts of chasing ostriches to dancing with Gérard Depardieu. [caption id="attachment_8902652" align="aligncenter" width="520"] Republic of Chechnya, 2013. Wrestling training in the central gym.

In the latest Spectator, Liam Halligan takes a sobering look at European markets bearing the brunt of sanctions against Russia. 'The western economy that’s suffered most, by far, is the largest one in the eurozone. Germany’s manufacturing thoroughbreds have sunk tens of billions of euros into Russian production facilities in recent years. . . . 'This helps explain why, having grown 0.8 per cent during the first three months of 2014, German GDP shrank 0.2 per cent in the second quarter. The eurozone’s powerhouse is now on the brink of recession. Industrial production dropped 4 per cent in August, the biggest monthly fall since early 2009. Exports were down 5.8 per cent — again, the steepest drop since the Lehman collapse in 2008.

Walking around London this lunchtime with my family, my stomach tightened as it struck me that we may conceivably now be sliding towards a war with Russia. A war with consequences that could end up destroying everything we value. Not physical assets – they can be replaced – but those we love and hold dear. The poverty of the West’s response to Putin’s aggression in Ukraine is breathtaking. Sanctions are announced, then re-announced, in the hope that perhaps the crisis on our borders may just resolve itself, with Putin deciding he has tweaked our tail enough. Such an outcome, however desirable, is pie in the sky. Let’s be clear that Putin holds the West, its leaders and its values in contempt. We are weak; he is strong.