Oil

A ceasefire has been agreed with Iran. The Straits of Hormuz will reopen. And the oil market will get back to normal very quickly. By Wednesday morning, it looked as if the energy crisis was over. Finance ministers will be breathing a sigh of relief as the crisis abates. But hold on. In reality, the truce is fragile, and huge amounts of supply have been taken out of the market. So long as that remains true, the price of oil, and with it the global economy, will remain stuck. The average price of $90 to $100 a barrel is not what anyone really thinks a barrel of oil is worth The price of oil has been on a wild ride ever since the United States and Israel started the attack on Iran a month ago.

Of all the parties watching the chaos in the Middle East unfold, one should be rubbing its hands together with particular satisfaction. Russia has not fired a shot in this conflict, lost no allies it cannot afford to lose and has so far gained rather a lot, with more to come. A cynic might call it the perfect war for Vladimir Putin. Moscow's public reaction has been characteristically theatrical. The Foreign Ministry denounced American and Israeli actions as a "reckless step" and a "dangerous adventure." Things have gone no further. There has been no announcement of political or military support for Iran from the Kremlin – nor is there likely to be: Russia needs its drones and missiles for Ukraine.

Donald Trump is a radical foreign-policy innovator. Over the past few decades, the US has tried a range of non-military means to nudge, squeeze and occasionally strangle its adversaries. These range from travel bans and banking restrictions, to export controls and trade limitations. But never has the US – or indeed anyone – tried to use import tariffs as a species of economic sanction. Trump has threatened Vladimir Putin with introducing “secondary sanctions” against countries that import Russian oil – a threat intended to strike at the heart of Russia’s war economy. And on August 4, Trump appeared, for the first time, to make good on that threat.

When the Wall Street Journal reported on November 21 that OPEC, the oil cartel dominated by Saudi Arabia, was planning to increase production by 500,000 barrels per day in December, the crude market immediately reacted. Oil prices plunged by 6 percent, bringing the Brent benchmark close to $80 a barrel. Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the older brother of king-in-waiting Mohammed bin Salman, immediately went to work disputing the report. No decisions at OPEC had been made, he said, and it was possible the cartel could even proceed with further production cuts if needed to maintain balance in the market (for the Saudis, "balance" is usually defined as padding the kingdom’s balance sheet). Abdulaziz’s intervention helped make up most of those earlier losses.

How outraged should we be that Saudi Aramco has reported a world-record quarterly profit of $48 billion, representing a giant bonus from the global oil price spike provoked by the war in Ukraine? Well, that’s how the cookie crumbles when you’re sitting on oil reserves so abundant and so easily accessible that your marginal cost of producing the next barrel is less than $10 when the market price has just doubled to $130 — as it did in March, before settling back to around $95 today. And you might think that this recent price retreat is likely to continue as oil demand begins to shrink with the onset of recession in developed economies – just as you worry that your own reserves will one day dwindle.