Nicola sturgeon

Fraser Nelson is joined by Alex Massie and James Forsyth to discuss IndyRef2: When will the politics ever end? Now Nicola Sturgeon says she wants a second Scottish independence referendum, and so we plunge ourselves – wearily but no less determined – into yet another fight to save our country. The nationalists operate on the principle of being a persistent irritant. Demand independence so often and so annoyingly that eventually the country just says: 'Have it, if it will shut you up.' But no. We proud Unionists cannot submit to the SNP’s logic that independence is 'only a matter of time'. We have to fight this. And we can win. First, let me shoot down the Brexit myth.

In an interview with the BBC last night, Nicola Sturgeon suggested that the autumn of next year would be a ‘common sense’ time to hold another referendum on Scottish independence. Which would, of course, mean voting without knowing what the terms of the Brexit would be. (Or, perhaps, whether it will really happen.) Why the haste? This is another topic that came up on Question Time last night. I suggested that Sturgeon’s sense of urgency might be explained by opinion polls showing her ‘tanking’ approval rating. The 2021 Holyrood election will probably end the majority for independence, given that the SNP will have been in power for 14 years by then and Scots will already be ‘scunnered’ with them (as Ms Sturgeon might put it).

In 2013, the Scottish National Party claimed an independent Scotland would be the sixth richest country on earth. Like many extravagant suggestions, this contained the essence of its own downfall. It would be lovely if it were true but didn't it seem just a tiny bit too good to be true? At the same time, and for the next 18 months or so, SNP politicians assured the Scottish people that there was no need to worry about the economic case for independence. They had the numbers to prove it. Granted, no one was ever encouraged to ask awkward questions about the assumptions made to generate this rosy-tartaned vision. For instance, what level of immigration would be needed to compensate for a population ageing more rapidly than the UK as a whole?

On this week’s episode we question whether Nicola Sturgeon might be tempted by a second independence referendum, consider the increasingly frosty relations between the USA and Russia, and ask whether city dogs are a menace to sheep. First, Theresa May was in Scotland this week for meetings with Nicola Sturgeon ahead of Scottish Tory conference. Thanks to Brexit, the Scots appear to have another opportunity to try and go it alone, but with support for independence still routinely polling below 50 per cent, will she pull the trigger?

Its economy will be destroyed by leaving the single market. Losing access to European sales will destroy swathes of industry, and without free movement, employers will be crucified by skill shortages. Nicola Sturgeon is no doubt already preparing her lines for a vote on Scottish independence once the UK leaves the EU. Right now, that looks as if it could come a lot sooner than anyone imagined. It is reported that as soon as the Prime Minister Theresa May triggers Article 50 and starts the process of leaving the European Union, Scotland’s First Minister will announce plans for a second referendum on independence – a demand that May could find impossible to resist. But hold on.

The increasingly radical Catalonian independence project has been dealt its latest blow this week: on Tuesday, Spain's constitutional court ruled that a projected September referendum on secession would be illegal. This means any plebiscite is effectively banned. But whether Catalonia's pro-independence president Carles Puigdemont goes ahead anyway remains to be seen. A similarly defiant course of action was pursued by his predecessor Artur Mas, who held a vote in 2014 (in which eighty per cent of people backed independence), and is currently on trial. The latest setback in the quest for Catalonian secessionism is particularly ill-timed.

Nicola Sturgeon inched Scotland closer to a re-run of its independence referendum today by reacting angrily to Theresa May’s Brexit speech. Having already put indyref2 'on the table' – but not for this year – Scotland’s First Minister said the Prime Minister’s speech today had made another independence vote 'more likely'. 'The UK Government cannot be allowed to take us out of the EU and the single market regardless of the impact on our economy, jobs, living standards and our reputation as an open, tolerant country, without Scotland having the ability to choose between that and a different future,' the First Minister said. And she added: 'With her comments today, the Prime Minister has only succeeded in making that choice more likely.

Like the past, Scotland is a different country. Things are done differently here. What might be thought eyebrow-raisingly inappropriate in a larger polity is considered normal here. Consider these three examples: In 2015, Scottish Television decided it was a good idea to make Nicola Sturgeon, together with her sister and her mother, the star of its Hogmanay broadcast. New Year with the Sturgeon's was in turn hosted by Elaine C Smith, the comedienne who was, conveniently, also a member of Yes Scotland's advisory board during the 2014 independence referendum. Earlier this month, the SNP rolled-out the first 'baby boxes' that will be delivered to every new-born infant in Scotland. The idea, borrowed from Finland, is to support mothers by providing a kind of starter-pack for infancy.

Because the SNP have won so often and so conclusively in recent years there is an understandable temptation to suppose they must always know what they are doing. Accordingly, Nicola Sturgeon sits in Bute House like some political Moriarty: motionless, perhaps, but like a spider at the centre of its web. And 'that web has a thousand radiations, and [s]he knows well every quiver of each of them'. Other political parties may plan, but the SNP plots. Everything is done for a reason and nothing is left to chance. The nationalists are relentless and implacable. No wonder they put the fear of God into their foes (especially a Labour party they long since supplanted as the natural party of government in Scotland).

It should come as no surprise that the Spanish government has so swiftly rejected Nicola Sturgeon’s proposal of a bespoke Brexit deal for Scotland. Although Spain might have finally ended its ten month political freeze a couple of months ago, the febrile issue of Catalonian independence remains unresolved. Far from quietening down or going away, the secessionist movement in Barcelona is becoming more aggressive and radical. As it does so, the central government in Madrid adopts tougher measures to try and suppress it including, last week, another ruling by its constitutional court against a referendum on the region’s independence.

Yesterday, the Scottish government published its ‘plan’ for life after Brexit. It was, at 60 or so pages, more detailed than anything we have yet seen from Theresa May’s ministry. But then it would be, given that Nicola Sturgeon will not be leading the UK’s negotiations as and when they begin. Still, plenty of nationalists crowed that, whatever else might be said of the Scottish government’s document, at least Sturgeon has a plan. But so did Baldrick.  That a plan exists does not make it a good plan. Or even an achievable one. And since we are still in the early stages of the Brexit waiting game the Scottish government’s proposals have the advantage of novelty but freshness is not enough either.

The SNP is consistently criticised for failing to close the achievement gap between the best and worst Scottish state schools. After nine years in control of education, the latest statistics from the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) underline just what a failure the SNP has been when it comes to education; this year, Scottish schoolchildren recorded their worst ever performance in the international survey. While policy-makers in England are looking at the next wave of reforms to follow the ongoing free schools revolution, things north of the border are rather different. In Scotland, the new Cabinet Secretary for Education, John Swinney, has ruled out any change which would involve removing schools from the control of local councils. This is a mistake.