Liberal democrats

Friday

Alex Massie

Do the Deal, Dave

Tories are supposed to be pragmatists. That’s why they’re the traditional party of coalition in this country. On that front, it is interesting to see that John Major is suggesting that, to advance the cause of stability, Cameron should offer Clegg a number of cabinet seats. This seems sensible and, happily, would also improve the quality of the cabinet since, lord knows, there are a good number of Tories who ought to be kept well away from the Red Boxes. More interestingly still, it was notable today how both Dan Hannan and Douglas Carswell were warm on the idea of a coalition and even, if necessary, some kind of electoral

Peter Hoskin

Cameron offers the hand of coalition to the Lib Dems

Woah, I didn’t think Cameron would go that far.  In his statement just now, the Tory leader started off by talking about minority government, as one might expect.  But he soon skipped past that, and onto what sounded like a more formal coalition with the Lib Dems.  He called it the Tories’ “Big Comprehensive Offer”. This offer trumped the one that Brown put forward ealier by virtue of its clarity.  Where Brown had hints and innuendo, Cameron had an itemised list of policies and specifications.  And so the Tory leader set out the areas where he wasn’t willing to compromise with the Lib Dems: Europe, cutting the deficit and immgration. 

Peter Hoskin

Brown sets out his stall for the Lib Dems

Gordon Brown’s statement outside Number 10 just now was a strange mix of statesmanship and salesmanship.  He began by trying to sound as reasonable as possible: claiming that he “understands” why Nick Clegg would like to meet with David Cameron first, and adding that he would happliy wait for them to finish their negotiations.  He claimed that he is keen to “resolve the situation for the good of the country.”  And he mentioned that Alistair Darling would be attending various meetings about the spreading fiscal crisis in Europe. But then, about halfway through, he flipped into used car salesman mode – hawking his rusty party to a sceptical Nick Clegg. 

Peter Hoskin

Nick Clegg gives the Tories the go-ahead

So Nick Clegg has finally spoken – and his words will be welcomed by the Tories.  In an address outside of the Lib Dem HQ on Cowley St, he reiterated his previous argument that “whichever party gets the most votes and the most seats, without gaining a majority, has the first right to form a government.”  But added that “it seems this morning that the Conservative Party have the most votes and the most seats … it is for the Conservative Party to prove that it is capable of governing in the national interest.” What this means in practice isn’t 100 percent certain – although it doesn’t sound good for

Martin Bright

Massive Failure by the Tories and Lib Dems to Manage Expectations

The old political hands in the Labour Party at least knew that they had to talk down their prospects (beyond the usual nonsense about fighting to win). Lord Mandelson was right to fight this election as the underdog because this now looks in some ways like a victory.  In fact this is a massive achievement for the Conservative Party. When David Cameron took over in 2005 many Tories would have settled for this result. They should always have been fighting a two-election strategy. But the Conservative Party allowed itself to get overexcited about the possibility of outright victory. The Liberal Democrats allowed themselves to dream and find themselves bitterly disappointed

Fraser Nelson

There may be Tory trouble ahead

Will the 1922 Committee of Tory MPs elect an emergency chairman today? If so, the mission would be to warn Cameron off doing any deal with the LibDems. Most Conservatives will wake up today judging the Cameron campaign to have failed. In the view of many, he will have failed to honour his “change to win” promise: they all changed, as he asked, but he didn’t win. There will be a price to pay, and perhaps one of the heads around Cameron will have to roll to assuage the discontent. Any Lib-Con deal over voting reform will be anathema to many recently-elected as well as existing  Tory MPs. A new

Peter Hoskin

Let the recriminations begin

Let’s rewind to 10pm yesterday evening, when the exit poll was released.  Most politicos – myself included – were incredulous.  We could just about believe that there might be a hung Parliament with the Tories as the largest party, but a reduced number of Lib Dem seats?  After Cleggmania and all those recent opinion polls?  Gedouttahere. But, this morning, that exit poll is looking a good deal more prescient.  After an evening of erratic results, Sky’s projection matches it almost exactly: 309 seats for the Tories, 259 for Labour, and 54 for the Lib Dems.  So we’re on for a hung parliament, and all the backroom discussion and subterfuge that

Thursday

Peter Hoskin

Election Night live blog

0843, JGF: The result in Hampstead and Kilburn is remarkable. The local Lib Dems were convinced that they would win. But Glenda Jackson survives by 42 votes with the Tories in second. 0639, PH: A dejected sounding speech from Nick Clegg. 0638, PH: Clegg says “this has been a disappointing night for the Lib Dems – and we obviously didn’t achieve what we hoped to achieve.” 0637, PH: In his acceptance speech, Nick Clegg is going big on the voting problems of last night. 0634, PH: Some good news for the Lib Dems: erm, Nick Clegg holds in Sheffield Hallam. With an increased majority. 0620, JGF: Jon Cruddas holds on,

Peter Hoskin

The party leaders vote

David and Samantha Cameron leaving the polling station in Spelsbury Gordon and Sarah Brown arrive to vote in North Queensferry Nick and Miriam Clegg vote in Sheffield

Wednesday

Peter Hoskin

Two more polls point towards a hung parliament

Is this it? A couple more polls have been released, and – like all the others tonight – they point towards a hung parliament. An ICM poll for the Guardian has the Tories on 36 percent (up three points), Labour on 28 percent (no change), and the Lib Dems on 26 (down 2).  And a ComRes effort for the Independent and ITV has the parties on 37, 28 and 28, respectively. Most Tories I’ve spoken with this evening are, they say, mildly pleased with the opinion polls.  Not overjoyed, of course – but they feel their party’s greater firepower in the marginals means that numbers like those above will translate

Peter Hoskin

And now YouGov...

You want more numbers? Well, the YouGov figures for the Sun have just come in, and they are: the Tories on 35 percent (no change), Labour on 28 percent (down two), and the Lib Dems on 28 percent (up 4). So far tonight, all the polls have been in hung parliament territory (on an uniform national swing). And most have Labour and the Lib Dems more or less on level-pegging. More polls here and here.  There’s a good handful still to come, so keep your seat calculators to hand. UPDATE: YouGov also conducted some marginals polling. Here are Peter Kellner’s words from the YouGov website, by way of an explanation:

Peter Hoskin

Times/Populus has the Tories close to a majority

So the Times/Populus results are in, and they have the Tories on 37 percent (up one), Labour on 28 percent (up one), and the Lib Dems on 27 percent (down one). On a uniform national swing, this would leave us in hung parliament territory. But Tories I speak to are pretty confident that numbers like these, if replicated tomorrow, could give them a majority. Elsewhere, TNS-BMRB has the Tories on 33, Labour on 27 and the Lib Dems on 29.  Angus Reed for Political Betting has Tories on 36, Labour on 24, and the Lib Dems on 29.

Tuesday

Daniel Korski

An economic coalition makes political sense

If you believe, as most people probably do, that Robert Chote of the Institute for Fiscal Studies and Mervin King of the Bank of England should be listened to, then two conclusion emerge: one, that a new government’s budget-slashing will be far, far worse than anything the main parties have hitherto acknowledged; and that after a parliament of deficit-busting, the party in charge will be severely punished by the voters. It stands to reason, therefore, that it would be better to spread the pain, even if one party has a near-majority or an outright majority. The Tories, even if they move passed the magic number of 326 seats, would do

Peter Hoskin

The campaign money game

Here’s a minor turn-up for the political anoraks’ scrapbooks: donations to Labour outstripped those going to the Tory party in the third week of the campaign. Brown & Co. were handed £1,416,863 against the Tories’ £645,250. Which is no sign of an effective campaign – after all, almost all of Labour’s publicity has been heavily negative. But it is a turnaround from the first week, when the Tories received £1,455,812 to Labour’s £783,159. Another thing to note is the downturn in Lib Dem donations. They jumped up to £120,000 in the second week, but have now sunk back to £64,000.  The Tories, in particular, will be hoping that that represents

Peter Hoskin

The Tories' final onslaught

“Where’s the popcorn?” I thought, as I joined a bunch of journos to watch the Tories’ final broadcast of the election campaign. It was a good nine minutes long, and might as well have been titled The Downfall of New Labour. The opening shots were of Blair and Brown in 97: “a new dawn,” and all that. But Blair’s image soon faded to black-and-white, and we were bombarded with a montage of headlines, quotes and images which highlighted the failures of the Labour years. 10p tax. Falling education standards. MRSA. The misdemeanours of Peter Mandelson. Defence spending. Purnell’s resignation. Gillian Duffy. Even Manish Sood’s comments today. Depending on your disposition,

Daniel Korski

The G-men or the Granola Army

In the last stretch of political campaigns, things tend to get ugly as the real cost of winning and losing becomes clear. This one is no different, with its suggestions of tactical voting and disagreements about tactical weapons. The latter has become particularly viscious with a former spymaster, an ex-general and a former CT chief calling into question the securty and defence policies Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats. In their defence, the Lib Dems have positioned their biggest weapon, Paddy Ashdown, who fired a volley against Richard Dearlove, the former head of MI6, saying that “things had changed since he supplied intelligence to Tony Blair about Iraq and WMD”.

Alex Massie

Clegg Might Need Cameron More than Dave Needs Nick

Paul Waugh has an excellent post on the difficulties and opportunities that will face Cameron if he falls short of winning a majority. Much of the commentary on this has hitherto focused on the difficulties but Waugh is right to suggest that, actually, a minority Tory ministry could probably pass a good deal of legislation and, just as importantly, effect change in other areas without the need for primary legislation. I doubt Cameron would want to run a minority government for more than 18-24 months but it’s worth noting that Stephen Harper’s minority ministry in Ottawa still stands and so does Alex Salmond’s in Edinburgh. Eventually, of course, the sheen

Peter Hoskin

Will the tactical voting plea work?

There’s only one question which matters when it comes to Labour’s tactical voting plea: will it work?  You can certainly see Brown & Co’s thinking on this.  This is the election, after all, where the Lib Dems have become a viable option for a lot more people – so they might act as a speed bump for people rushing away from Labour and towards the Tories.  And anything which depresses the Tory vote gives Labour a greater chance of holding the most seats in the House, and of making some kind of post-election pact with Nick Clegg. But as David said earlier, Labour’s osciallating stance towards the Lib Dems –

David Blackburn

From carpet-bombing to love-bombing

Labour’s relationship with the Lib Dems gets more like Dallas’s JR and Sue Ellen with each passing day. Contemptuous and contemptible one day to lisping breathless compliments the next.  Gordon Brown snarled at Nick Clegg during last week’s debate. Clegg would, Brown argued, leap gaily into bed with the Tories on Friday morning – a departure from the previous ‘we must form a progressive coalition’ line pushed by Andrew Adonis. This morning brings another volte face: Brown and several cabinet ministers urge ‘progressives’ to vote tactically. Writing in the Guardian, Gordon Brown pitches for Lib Dems to vote Labour in 100 Tory/Labour marginals. Peter Hain insists that votes are cast

Monday

Martin Bright

Old Comrades Drift Back to Labour

I have had a number of shocked emails from old friends on the left following my previous post here, which many saw as an endorsement of the Liberal Democrats. In fact, I remain one of the great undecided. This weekend I witnessed some good comrades embracing the party of the workers. Nick Cohen devoted his column in the Observer to the thesis (adapting Chesterton) that “when people stop believing in Labour they don’t believe in nothing – they believe in anything”. Meanwhile, Norman Geras of normblog has published the five reasons he will be voting Labour. There is much soul-searching out there in liberal Britain. The Observer’s brilliant but tortured endorsement of the Lib