Keir starmer

If Keir Starmer didn’t already understand Harold Macmillan’s warning about ‘events, dear boy, events’, he got a lesson on Saturday. At 4.49 p.m. on Truth Social, Donald Trump ate humble pie about the -sacrifice of British troops in Afghanistan, having previously claimed Nato forces avoided the front line. ‘We enjoyed it for a few minutes,’ a close aide recalled. Eleven minutes, to be precise. At 5 p.m. on the dot, Andy Burnham announced that he wished to stand in the Gorton and Denton by-election. So began the latest psychodrama at the top of the party. This was an open challenge to Starmer’s authority and a test both of his remaining political power and his willingness to use it.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has tonight been forced to stall the Bill which would hand the Chagos Islands over to Mauritius. The legislation enabling the deal was expected to be debated in the House of Lords on Monday. But this evening, it was revealed that the votes have been delayed amid parliamentary ping-pong and a backlash from the Americans. Both the Conservatives and Reform UK are keen to take credit for the pause in the bill, under which Britain would give up the archipelago and lease back the Diego Garcia base. The Conservative case for credit is on the legislative front. Peers like Lord Hannan argue that the flip-flop occurred only after the Tories had put out a rare three-line Whip for Monday, with ministers concluding that their Bill would fall.

"Better late than never." That’s how Reform party leader Nigel Farage has described Donald Trump’s sudden and dramatic repudiation of the United Kingdom’s Chagos handover. "This should be enough to sink just about the worst deal in history." Early this morning, Trump used his Truth Social account to lay into "our 'brilliant' NATO ally, the United Kingdom, over Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s decision to "give away the Island of Diego Garcia, the site of a vital military base, and to do so FOR NO REASON WHATSOEVER.

At a Christmas party I witnessed a showdown between two Labour movers and shakers, one a devoted Starmerite, the other an unrepentant Blairite, over whether the Prime Minister can turn things around. They didn’t agree on much – Keir Starmer’s vision or lack of it, Europe, immigration, you name it. When I commented to another leading figure in the party that Blairites, with the exception of Jonathan Powell (now running foreign policy) and Alastair Campbell (whose podcast has moved him leftwards), seem to have lost faith in this government, this former minister said: ‘Of course they have, because this is the second term of Gordon Brown.

The internet suddenly went down in Iran last night, as courageous Iranians continued to rise up against the Ayatollah. The UK government was apparently inspired. Not by the rebels, whose plight the Prime Minister has remained remarkably quiet about – but by the mullahs’ digital crackdown. Call me a conspiracy loon, but I dare say Labour’s ire for X isn’t simply about the site’s supposedly insufficient safeguarding policies Britain’s Labour party has issued its most serious threat yet to social-media giant X – whose owner, Elon Musk, has become this rudderless government’s go-to bogeyman.

Contemplating a new year always raises questions. Was there a Third Protocol? What was wrong with Oral-A? Can Keir Starmer survive 2026 as prime minister? It is the biggest question in politics this year and the fact that it does not have an easy answer illustrates the mess Starmer has got himself into over the past 18 months. A few days before Christmas, a senior figure in No. 10 outlined how Labour’s high command still believes the winds will change for the party in 2026: a ‘virtuous circle’ of falling interest rates and inflation, more investment, growth, and rising confidence in the government among the public and the Parliamentary Labour Party. Another Starmer loyalist noted the old adage: ‘It’s always darkest before the dawn.

Keir Starmer will start the new year as he means to go on: by attempting to convince his troops that he is still the best man to lead them. The Prime Minister will begin 2026 by hosting Labour MPs at Chequers. The motive behind the outreach is simple. ‘The only question that matters this year,’ says a non-invitee, ‘is whether Keir can cling on.’ It was not so long ago that a peacetime prime minister with a healthy working majority was thought to be unassailable. No longer. The defining moment in parliament these past 12 months was the summer welfare rebellion. After 120 Labour MPs threatened revolt, the £5 billion cuts were withdrawn. ‘The party took back control,’ says a minister. Some in the Whips’ Office wished to make this a vote of confidence.

Keir Starmer is stuck in a catch-22. If he is to avoid the threat of continual leadership challenges, the Prime Minister will need to deal with what every poll shows are the public’s three overriding concerns: the cost of living, rampant illegal immigration and the state of the NHS. But if serious progress is made in any of these areas, it is likely to turn the minister responsible into a viable leadership candidate. Let’s call it catch-25. Rachel Reeves at the Treasury has a monumental task and is politically tied to the Starmer project, so she can be ruled out. Of the other two key issues, most progress has been made in reducing NHS waiting lists, the task of Wes Streeting.