Iran

In the past two days, three senior Defense Department officials have been suspended and one has resigned. Their departures are apparently connected to an internal investigation into "recent unauthorized disclosures of national security information." On Tuesday, Dan Caldwell, who has been working closely with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and Darin Selnick, the Defense Department’s deputy chief of staff, were escorted from their office by guards. Then, yesterday, Colin Carroll, chief of staff to Deputy Defense Secretary Stephen Feinberg, was ousted, too. John Ullyot, a top Pentagon spokesman, also announced he was resigning.All four men are military veterans.

For Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, it’s a case of “Today Ukraine, tomorrow the world.” In their much-hyped phone call this week, the Russian leader didn’t seem to give much away: a step toward a sort-of ceasefire, a prisoner swap, and a few other odds and ends. But Putin knows that Trump wants much more than just an agreement on the Donbas. Settling the most significant conflict in Europe since World War Two is merely a prelude to a much bigger deal in the Holy Land — a truly historic arrangement that could fulfill Trump’s desire to be seen as a legendary peacemaker. That’s why Trump sent Steve Witkoff, his special envoy to the Middle East, to Moscow last week to pre-negotiate with Putin.

So much for President Donald J. Trump’s serial vows to extricate America from the Middle East’s seemingly endless wars and feuds. His bombing on Saturday of numerous targets in Yemen has further enmeshed it in them. Several weeks of bombing loom as Trump vows to crush the Iranian-backed Houthi militia and warns Tehran that it might be in for similar treatment.  His statement was unequivocal: “To Iran: Support for the Houthi terrorists must end IMMEDIATELY! Do NOT threaten the American People, their President, who has received one of the largest mandates in Presidential History, or Worldwide shipping lanes. If you do, BEWARE, because America will hold you fully accountable.”  Whether the Iranian mullahs will be impressed by Trump’s fulgurations is an open question.

‘What is to stop it happening again?’ was the pertinent question put to me by a Lebanese friend this week as we discussed over a mezze the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. Given what we know of the terms agreed between the combatants, the answer seems to be, ‘Not a lot.’ Generally, I am not one to pour cold water or see the glass half empty. But beyond welcoming a cessation in the brutal meeting out of death by bombardment on the civilians in both Lebanon and northern Israel, it is hard to see the ceasefire agreement as sustainable in the long term.

Donald Trump’s second term administration is taking shape, and thus far it’s turned out to be impressively Catholic in its approach — representing Trump’s dominance of the Republican coalition and his capacity to ignore the worst instincts of some of his more vocal supporters on the New Right who see governance through a naive lens. One of the questions heading into this term was who Trump would disappoint by being insufficiently one thing or the other — by being too radical in some areas or too modest in others. But at this point, there are very few people disappointed in the names he’s chosen, outside of a handful of very online voices who had fantasies of their favorite pundits and follows on X getting a shot at cabinet positions.

A drone exploded in a sleepy Israeli seaside town yesterday. The target of the attack was Benjamin Netanyahu. By luck, the drone missed its target – Netanyahu’s home – and no one was hurt in the explosion. Hezbollah launched three drones from Lebanon toward Caesarea. Two were shot down by the Israel Defense Forces but, worryingly, the third arrived undetected. Sirens, which are supposed to warn civilians of an impending attack, did not sound, meaning no one knew they should seek refuge in a bomb shelter. The Israeli Prime Minister claimed he was not at home when the drone hit. An Iranian – or Iranian-backed – assassination of the Israeli Prime Minister (or other senior figure) would change the game completely.

‘The embassy is being invaded. The ambassador has had to lock himself in his office upstairs, and there are people on our balcony. Your government is responsible for the safety of our diplomats and embassy. We will hold you accountable...’ The voice at the other end of the line was calm, though there was no mistaking the underlying aggression. ‘The Vienna Convention is very clear about the responsibility of host countries for diplomatic missions.’ I received that call in the autumn of 2017, when I was coming to the end of my second year as Britain’s ambassador to Iran.