Iran

Details are still coming in as I write and the facts have not been confirmed, but it seems that ballistic missiles have been fired from inside Iran at US military targets in Iraq. A statement on Iran's official news media said: 'The fierce revenge by the Revolutionary Guards has begun.’ It went on to say that ‘tens’ of ground-to-ground missiles were fired in what the Iranian military is calling ‘Operation Martyr Soleimani’. That is of course a reference to the US assassination of Qasem Soleimani, head of Iran’s Quds Force and the country’s most popular general. ABC News quoted a US official as saying that the facilities hit included a base in Erbil in northern Iraq and Al Asad Air Base in western Iraq.

Politicians and policy experts tell us, with confidence, that America’s targeted killing of Qasem Soleimani makes the world safer — or more dangerous. Take your pick. Whatever answer they give, the talking heads sound very certain. They shouldn’t be. However deep their understanding of Iran, the Middle East, and US foreign policy, nobody really knows what will happen next.The problem is simply too complex. It depends on a sequence of difficult decisions, first by Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and then by President Donald Trump, each responding to the other’s choices, each calculating the risks of going too far — or not far enough.The next decision is Tehran’s.

Might Donald Trump going to visit Tehran and crack a deal with Iran? It might seem improbable. But then again, there isn’t much with Trump that doesn’t. This is the fellow who ended up at the border with North Korea, playing kissy-face with Kim Jong-un after having breathed voluminous amounts of fire and fury. When I raised this question of a fresh Trump volte-face yesterday in New York at the ambassador’s palatial residence on Fifth Avenue with Iran’s foreign minister Javad Zarif in an interview for the National Interest, he thus didn’t bat an eye. 'There are prudent ways out,' of his current situation, he indicated. Indeed there are. Iran is floating the idea of beefed-up inspections in return for a permanent lifting of sanctions.

Beirut It seems that American planes were actually on their way to bomb Iranian targets last night when they were called back. That’s what the New York Times was told by a senior official in the administration, speaking anonymously of course. ‘Planes were in the air and ships were in position, but no missiles had been fired when word came to stand down.’ Was this President Trump or the Pentagon? It’s possible that the US military suddenly learned of a vulnerability in some part of their forces spread around the Middle East, in Bahrain, in Iraq, or in Syria, but then again, they’ve had time to prepare. More likely, this was Trump.

This time Donald Trump is unlikely to storm out of the room in a huff. He’s invited the top congressional leadership from both parties to a meeting at the White House this afternoon to discuss Iran. Now that Iran has shot down a US naval surveillance drone, Trump is in a bind. Instead of looking like Mr Big, he’s starting to resemble a paper tiger. At first Trump tweeted, 'Iran made a very big mistake!' which made it sound like he was going to take military action against the mullahs. But then a more emollient Trump appeared, telling reporters, 'I have a feeling…that it was a mistake made by somebody' who was freelancing rather than acting on orders from on high. Not likely. The truth is that Iran is calling Trump’s bluff.