Europe

The Tory spinners were in an exceptionally good mood after PMQs today. The general feeling was that Ed Miliband had messed up, and this wasn't helped by his aides having to clarify that when he told the Prime Minister that 'my position is no - we don't want an In/Out referendum', he actually meant that currently they don't want an In/Out referendum now. 'The position has not changed,' said one party source. 'We do not think that an In/Out referendum is a good idea. We will not do anything which damages the UK economy.' But they added that they were not ruling one out forever. And they were not ruling out a referendum commitment in the manifesto, either. So this is another 'for now' position, rather than a commitment of any sort.

So the Prime Minister's speech is, as James hinted yesterday, going to be on Wednesday, and in London to avoid any further strikes of the Curse of Tutancameron's Europe speech. His official spokesman confirmed the date this morning. Thanks to briefed extracts and further briefings over the weekend, we now have a rough outline of what's going to be in it, which will mean it's impressive if anything the David Cameron says causes anyone in the audience to gasp with surprise. What is more exciting is what the response will be from the other benches in the Commons. Labour spokesmen on the broadcast rounds yesterday were squirming rather when asked about whether the party might offer a referendum too.

David Cameron's Europe speech already had a Tutankhamun-style curse on it before events forced him to postpone it, with the much longer delay from its original date of mid-autumn causing a feeding frenzy in the media, in his own party, his coalition partners, and in the opposition. By the end of last week, it was difficult to find an opposition MP or columnist who hadn't written a whimsical piece imagining they were Cameron giving the speech (or indeed twisting readers into an even greater willing suspension of disbelief by imagining they were John Major talking to Cameron about the as-yet undelivered speech as David Miliband managed to do).

By the time the Prime Minister cancelled his Europe speech yesterday evening, extracts had already been briefed to journalists. A new date has yet to be announced, but here are the extracts that have been released: Britain should play an active part in Europe: 'I want to speak to you today with urgency and frankness about the European Union and how it must change – both to deliver prosperity and to retain the support of its peoples. 'I come here as British Prime Minister with a positive vision for the future of the European Union. A future in which Britain wants, and should want, to play a committed and active part.' Now is the time for change: 'Why raise fundamental questions about the future of Europe when Europe is already in the midst of a deep crisis?

By this stage in the run-up to his Europe speech, the Prime Minister must be tempted to sit in a darkened room with his fingers in his ears shouting loudly if anyone else tries to give him more advice on Britain's relationship with the EU. Today brings another wave of advice: some from friendly faces, most from foes. When Ed Miliband got to the point in his Today programme interview, after debating when it was that the Prime Minister might call a referendum, he outlined his central problem with the whole debate: 'Imagine an investor, thinking now, should I be investing in Britain, or Germany, or Denmark, or a whole range of other countries? I think if we put up a sign around Britain, saying 'we might be out of Europe within five years'.

The Prime Minister met a group of Tory backbenchers in Downing Street this afternoon to discuss Friday's Europe speech. I have spoken to the group's ringleader, John Baron, who has stressed the confidential manner of the discussion, but has given Coffee House readers some exclusive details of what went on. John Baron, Peter Bone, Edward Leigh, Mark Reckless, Philip Davies and Steve Baker attended the meeting. They were representing the 100 Conservative backbenchers who had signed the original letter in June calling for legislation in this Parliament for a referendum in the next. The meeting, which had a good atmosphere, lasted 20-25 minutes, and Baron and colleagues reiterated to the Prime Minister the letter's two demands.

Number 10 has got quite the job to do over the next few days if it is to get backbenchers ready for David Cameron's EU speech on Friday. Tory MPs are now obviously in a high state of excitement, but their expectations will inevitably be disappointed to some degree. Some are already expressing fears about this, including the MP leading calls in parliament for a referendum. John Baron, who chairs the All-Party Parliamentary Group for an EU referendum, tells me that he is worried the 'mood music' in Europe isn't quite as positive about renegotiation as the Prime Minister might hope. He says: 'The chance of repatriating powers, I think they are slim: but I wish him well.

This is unfortunate, not least because the Prime Minister is a greater realist than many of his erstwhile supporters. They, too often, seem to be another bunch of Bourbons. They helped destroy the last Conservative Prime Minister and they seem determined to help vanquish this one too. The country is not nearly so obsessed with Europe as the Conservative party thinks it is and, whatever the people's frustrations with Brussels and the European Union, I still think it unlikely the electorate is liable to be impressed with or by a party that spends quite so much time and energy on the European question. Not that the Prime Minister is helping. His forthcoming euro-speech has been so widely and lengthily trailed that it now has almost no chance of succeeding.

The Europe debate is raging in the Sunday papers ahead of Cameron’s speech on the matter. There’s mounting concern among Tory Cabinet Ministers that the speech will not go far enough and will simply inflame the situation. One told me, ‘It would be better to make no speech than to disappoint.

Ed Miliband’s speech to the Fabians is being rather over-shadowed today by Lord Heseltine’s attack on David Cameron’s EU policy; the political media like nothing more than a 'Tories split on Europe' story. I suspect, though, that Labour won’t mind this too much. Heseltine’s criticisms make the Tories look divided and allow Labour to claim that even Cameron’s own growth adviser thinks his Europe policy is wrong. Of course, there is nothing surprising about Heseltine’s criticisms: he is an ideological pro-European. He wanted Britain to join the euro, something that would have been a total disaster for this country, and even now believes that we will join the euro one-day.

The major gamble that David Cameron is taking with his strategy on Europe is, as James explains in this week's magazine, that he's relying on signals from Angela Merkel that she is keen to help him with a renegotiation. She has certainly given a few of those in recent months. But today one of her colleagues in the Christian Democrat party undermined some of the confidence that has been building about Merkel's position. Gunther Krichbaum is the chair of the Bundestag's European Affairs Committee, and is leading a two-day cross-party delegation to Britain. He believes a renegotiation would open a 'Pandora's Box', and that Britain should tread carefully: 'There is certainly a risk that [a referendum] could paralyse efforts for a better Europe and deeper integration.

David Cameron’s big Europe speech is now less than a fortnight away. It will be, I suspect, the most consequential speech of his premiership. When you look at the challenges involved, one can see why the speech has been delayed so many times. Cameron needs to say enough to reassure his party, which has never been more Eurosceptic than it is now. But he also needs to appeal to European leaders, whose consent he will need for any new deal. At the same time, he’s got to try and not create too much nervousness among business about where all this will end up. I understand that he intends to argue that Britain needs to remain inside the single market. But he will commit to a renegotiation of Britain’s terms of membership, starting after the next election.

David Cameron’s New Year interview on Marr was dominated not by the economy but by Europe. In a sign of what the promise of a speech setting out his European strategy has started, Cameron was repeatedly asked about what powers he would like back. He didn’t give much away, repeatedly telling Andrew Marr he would have to wait for the speech later this month. But two interesting things did emerge. First, Cameron indicated that he wanted to toughen up the way that the free movement of people is applied. I presume this means that only those with work or a clear means of support could come here; Nick Boles and others have long argued that this is possible under the existing treaties. Second, Cameron indicated that the new terms-or-out referendum would take place within five years.

Nick Clegg has made a not-so-startling intervention in the debate about Britain's relationship with Europe today, warning that Britain must avoid selling itself short in a renegotiation. His interview with the Guardian is a necessary piece of positioning ahead of David Cameron's Big Europe Speech in mid-January, and this kind of differentiation is something the Tories are more than happy for the Lib Dem leader to continue doing. So in some ways, Clegg warning Cameron not to overdo it on Europe isn't at all significant. But the Deputy Prime Minister makes an important observation in his interview about Britain's bargaining power.