Egypt

Thursday

Alex Massie

Neoconservatism’s Mini-Revival

The great thing about neoconservatism is the way it's become a universal bogeyman. On the one hand neoconservatives - by which I mean actual neoconservatives - are criticised by the right for their utopian dreams of a better, more liberal, more democratic Arab world; on the other neoconservatives - by which I mean people who generally aren't neoconservatives at all - are criticised by the left for urging caution in this present Egyptian crisis. Look at these dastardly neocon hypocrites backing Mubarak! It's a lose-lose moment for neoconservatism. So much so, in fact, that the term has been stripped of almost all meaning and now simply stands for Stuff I Don't Like. Nevertheless, neconservatism is neither as monolithic, nor as widespread as often imagined.

Wednesday

Alex Massie

What’s Politically Correct About Opposing Hosni Mubarak?

I don't have much sympathy for a regime that unleashes its own goons against peaceful protestors in an attempt to foment chaos as part of a strategy designed, one imagines, to leave the "silent majority" craving something, anything that restores order and "stability" to Egyptian society. But it seems that's just another example of political correctness run amok. According to some, anyway. Such as our old friend Con Coughlin. Con, typically, takes a robust view of the Egyptian uprising: At the risk of provoking the wrath of the politically correct lobby that wants to see wholesale reform of the Middle East, I am starting to feel rather sorry for Hosni Mubarak.

Daniel Korski

Al-Jazeera is not a new BBC World Service

Egypt has made al-Jazeera English. The Qatari satellite channel has been the “go-to” channel; it has had more reporters on the ground than the BBC and CNN; and it has used technology in ways that make Western media look like they belong to a different era. Newspapers from the New York Times to the Wall Street Journal have talked about the channel's role in the protests. And all this despite its broadcasts being banned in Ben Ali's Tunisia and blocked in Egypt. Facing these constraints, the TV channel switched to social media like Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube. Its website posted Live Messages — audio messages recorded from phone calls placed by correspondents — on the ground, and used a facility called Scribble Live to get these updates online fast.

Lloyd Evans

As the oldest parliament yawned, the oldest civilisation erupted

One yawn every minute. That’s how PMQs felt today. Foreign affairs dominated the session as Ed Miliband and the Prime Minister exchanged lofty words about the Cairo demonstrations and the spread of democracy around the world. Doubtless they felt they struck a suitably elevated tone but to the viewers they came across as a pair of prep school smart-alecs trying to sound like great statesmen disposing of liberated peoples after the fall of empires. Egypt and Afghanistan were both treated to a torrent of high-minded vacuities. David Cameron found the demonstrations ‘incredibly moving.’ Ed Miliband was impressed by the sight of ‘hundreds of thousands of people facing overwhelming odds to ask for their democratic rights.

James Forsyth

Consensus reigns over PMQs

A very different PMQs this week: six questions on foreign affairs and almost total consensus between Cameron and Miliband. Miliband’s office had given No 10 advance warning of the topics they wanted to raise and the two agreed on pretty much everything. Miliband argued that ‘the best route to stability is through democracy.’ Cameron agreed but stressed that democracy means more than just elections. You get the picture. At the risk of disagreeing with Pete, I must say that the exchanges were a reminder of just how dull PMQs would be if it was not confrontational.

Daniel Korski

Where does it leave Israel?

Israel is in a right state over Egypt's incipient revolution. Israeli politicians talk openly about the threat from an Islamist takeover, the greatness of Hosni Mubarak, and have even taken to sneer at the West's hopefulness. Now that President Mubarak has announced he will leave, the Israeli leadership will be looking on in horror. They are right to be concerned. The beleaguered Jewish state has already lost one regional ally in Turkey and does not relish the prospect of losing Egypt too. That would leave only Jordan, a country whose monarchy may be the next casualty of the pro-democracy movement sweeping the region. But it is not just a matter of numbers. The "cold peace" with Egypt was the most important strategic alliance Israel had in the Middle East.

Tuesday

James Forsyth

Reports: Mubarak to say he will step down in August 

The wires are buzzing with uncomfirmed report that Mubarak will tonight say on Egyptian TV that he won't run for re-election in August and will stand down then. Update: The New York Times  is now reporting that President Obama has pushed Mubarak to say publicly that he won't run again. The end game appears to be rapidly approaching.

Alastair Beach

EXCLUSIVE: On the streets of Cairo

Alastair Beach is on the ground in Cairo. Here is his report for Coffee House: As the imam rounded off his midday Friday sermon, the ring of more than three hundred riot police encircled the worshippers. It was no ordinary congregation. A stellar assortment of Egyptian directors, actors and political bigwigs were assembled in an enormous crowd on the pavement outside the Mustafa Mahmoud mosque in Mohandiseen, Western Cairo. Over the loudspeaker, the imam drew polite applause from the listeners when he praised protestors who had turned out for the initial demonstration in Egypt’s uprising a week last Tuesday. But then he put his foot in it. “Democracy should involve free speech but without the trouble,” he intoned solemnly in Arabic.

David Blackburn

When will mass protest come to Libya?

As several seemingly permanent Middle Eastern autocracies tremble, Colonel Gadaffi’s Libya rolls on. So far, there have been reports of minor protests in the localities about housing shortages, nothing more. With unemployment standing at 30 percent, the Libyan people are just as impoverished as those in neighbouring Tunisia and Egypt. Gadaffi’s dictatorship is scarcely benevolent, and, as for liberalisation, Libya remains one of the few completely dry countries on Earth. The secret of Gadaffi’s success then would appear to be expressing aggressive anti-American sentiment, whilst suppressing Islamism and democratic opposition at home. And all the while he entices rich Western powers (Britain) with the allure of Libya’s virginal natural resources.

Daniel Korski

Come on Europe; support the freedom you claim to love

The Middle East is being rocked to its authoritarian core, as pro-democracy protesters defy Hosni Mubarak’s regime for the eighth day in a row. They want an end to his 31-year-rule and, to judge by their continued defiance, are unlikely to accept anything else than his departure. The events, however, have placed European governments in a quandary. Should they back the protests? Support what has been a friendly regime? Or sit uncomfortably on the fence, talking about the need to show restraint and start reforms but standing back from actually supporting regime change, in case the transition becomes violent or the outcome problematic? So far, it looks like the EU prefers sitting on the proverbial fence.

Alex Massie

The Failure of Realism: Diagnosis Without Any Prescription

These two posts by Melanie Phillips on the situation in Egypt are very useful. Clarifying, even. They merit a response not because it's Melanie and she's a neighbour but because she publishes a view that's more widely held than you might think if you only consulted the broadsheets and the BBC. It may, I think, be summarised as: Barack Obama is throwing Mubarak under the bus and we'll soon have Tehran on the Nile. A lot of people believe this or fear it the most probable outcome. They may, alas, be proven right. I'm struck, however, by their certainty that the Muslim Brotherhood will soon be running Egypt and, furthermore, that the Muslim Brotherhood in power will behave and speak in just the way it has in opposition. Perhaps this too will prove the case.

Alex Massie

I Love My Country, It’s the Government I Am Afraid Of

Perhaps Glenn Beck can ask this girl, interviewed in Tahrir Square, if she is just a stooge of the Muslim Brotherhood. Perhaps the "Realists" can ask her that too. Hopey-changey bullshit? Well, maybe. Perhaps the young and the liberal and the educated will receive a desperate, chilling awakening. But this is not set in stone. Plainly this girl does not speak for all Egyptians (and I'd like to know more about what Egyptians living outside the major cities think) but let's not pretend either that this is a bogus or astroturf uprising. It's real and its demands are real too. Fear the worst all you like, but these people deserve whatever support we can offer them.  PS: I kinda want one of those t-shirts. Also, make sure you stick around to see the anti-Mubarak cat at the end.

Alex Massie

Glenn Beck: Performance Artist

Even by our good friend Mr Beck's standards this is an impressive, virtuoso display. Twelve minutes out of your day but worth it, I promise you. Pick your own favourite moment. I'm torn between his wondering if Russia might invade western europe (perhaps Putin could run Belgium?) and his suggestion that protests in the UK (tuition fees) and Ireland (no money) are somehow part of a Muslim Brotherhood plot. Also: he says Italy is "on fire" but I think that's only true of Silvio Berlusconi and even then only in a Humbert Humbert sense...

Monday

Peter Hoskin

Fox: Iran could have a nuclear weapon by 2012

As Cairo smoulders, it's easy to forget about one of the most combustible ingredients in the Middle Eastern cocktail – Iran. Yet the threat still exists, as Tony Blair and Liam Fox have been keen to remind us. James Kirkup reports that the Defence Secretary has warned a Commons committee that Iran could have a nuclear device as soon as next year. Fox isn't the first to make the 2012 claim. The director of the CIA did so last year. And a recent article by the former UN weapons inspector David Albright and Andrea Stricker – which I arrived at via Jeffrey Goldberg – explains just how Iran might pull it off, in spite of recent setbacks: "Technically, Iran could decide to build a nuclear weapon now using the Natanz enrichment plant.

Sunday

Daniel Korski

Coffee House interview: Paul Wolfowitz

Nobody is as associated with George W Bush's drive to promote freedom and democracy in the Middle East as former US Deputy Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz. His role in the Iraq War, and belief that the US should promote democracy in a part of the world better known for authoritarian rulers, remains controversial to this day. But now that the Middle East is being rocked by pro-democracy protests – as people demand freedom, employment, and an end to tyranny – is this advocate of democracy finally being proven right? And what does he think about the dangers of democratic transitions?

Alex Massie

Days of Hope, Not Rage, in Egypt.

Fraser asks where or who is the Egyptian Lech Walesa? Well the answer, somewhat improbably, seems to be Mohamed ElBaradei*. And he's in Tahrir Square. Al Jazeera reports that the former IAEA chief has more backing than anyone might have expected just a week ago. The Muslim Brotherhood, secularists and socialists are all said to favour ElBaradei becoming interim president should Mubarak's regime crumble to dust. I'm less pessimistic than Fraser**. (This may not be a difficult status to acquire.) He writes: I wish I could be more enthusiastic about the events in Egypt and Tunisia – but, as I say in my News of the World column (£) today, the citizens of the Arab world all too often have a choice between a Bad Guy and a Worse Guy.

Fraser Nelson

A Wind of Change down Arab Street?

I wish I could be more enthusiastic about the events in Egypt and Tunisia – but, as I say in my News of the World column (£) today, the citizens of the Arab world all too often have a choice between a Bad Guy and a Worse Guy. Egypt looks like its choice is between the status quo, the Muslim Brotherhood or a military coup. This is not a 1989-style revolution, there is no Arabic equivalent of Scorpions singing Wind of Change. Successful revolutions normally have a well-organised alternative government, with a clear route towards democracy. Where is the Egyptian Lech Walesa, or the Tunisian Vaclav Havel?

Alex Massie

How Do You Say Alea Iacta Est in Arabic?

Like everyone else of sense, I'm wary of people who are too certain about anything that might happen next in Egypt. That suspicion certainly extends to my own opinions. I'm not sure we even know what the known knowns are, far less anything else. That said, I think one can reasonably suspect that the appointment of Omar Suleiman as Vice-President is neither a sign of Hosni Mubarak's strength nor anything like enough to satisfy the protestors. The regime may yet survive but I wouldn't rush to purchase Hosni Futures. Unlike David Cameron, Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel, Barack Obama hasn't talked about this year's elections yet but one imagines, reading between the lines of his most recent statement, that will be his next move.

Saturday

James Forsyth

Egypt, moving from revolt to revolution

Sitting in London it is hard to know what is going to happen next in Egypt but one particular detail in the New York Times’ latest report makes me think that Mubarak’s fall is fast becoming more likely than not: “In Ramses Square in central Cairo Saturday midday, protesters commandeered a flatbed army truck. One protester was driving the truck around the square while a dozen others on the back were chanting for President Mubarak to leave office. Nearby, soldiers relaxed around their tanks and armored vehicles and chatted with protesters. There were no policemen in sight.

Daniel Korski

The neoconservatives were right

The last six years have been fallow ones for the neoconservatives. From around 2005, when Iraq began its descent into chaos, the ideology that did so much to shape US foreign policy became marginalised as, first, George W Bush turned increasingly realist and, then, Barack Obama continued where his predecessor left off. While ideas are not responsible for the people who hold them, it did not help that, after President Bush left office, those who espoused a neoconservative outlook included the likes of Sarah Palin. Funding for democracy-promotion was slashed, and the focus for aid programmes became "accountability" – with the word "democracy" banished from sight.