Economy

To all of the bitter skeptics who doubted President Joe Biden, Treasury secretary Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve, I have a message for you: come forth now with your most heartfelt apologies. For a few months the Ivy League know-it-alls had to back-pedal their claims that inflation was transitory. But that changed this week. After months of ridicule, it is Joe Biden and his team of Nobel Laureates (all seventeen of them) who are getting the last laugh. Inflation changed faster than anyone could have imagined. In fact, according to the White House, we went from 9.1 percent inflation in June to 0 percent inflation in July. Joe Biden — as pleased with himself as ever — couldn’t wait to break the news to the American people.

We’ll find out shortly whether official statistics agree with economists surveyed by Bloomberg who say UK GDP probably shrank by 0.2 per cent in the second quarter. But at an uncomfortable moment when we know things can only get worse, looking backwards doesn’t help and nor does holding out hope for a miraculous ‘emergency budget’ in September. As for forecasting beyond that, it’s almost too scary to contemplate. Better to shun economists and politicians and focus instead on facts that tell us what’s happening now – such as data from Barclaycard – and things we can do keep our own budgets in balance.

‘What’s worse, they’re paying the profits to shareholders,’ said a grey-haired woman ahead of me in the Co-op queue. ‘Bloody shareholders,’ her friend of similar age and class spat back. I guessed they were talking about Centrica, parent of British Gas, which at a time when domestic energy bills are rising 23 times faster than wages (as Frances O’Grady of the TUC puts it) has announced half-year operating profits of £1.3 billion, up from £262 million last year – and the restoration of a penny-per-share interim dividend after a three-year gap. Both ladies looked likely to be beneficiaries of pensions nourished by dividends from the likes of Centrica, Shell and BP.

The Tory leadership race is becoming a test of patience. Today Rishi Sunak has laid out his plan to slash tax: not in a matter of days or weeks, as Liz Truss has pledged to do, but by the end of the next parliament. He’s promised to reduce the base rate of income tax by 20 per cent, by taking 1p off income tax in 2024 (as already pledged) and an additional 3p over the next parliament. As Fraser Nelson notes on Coffee House, the timing of this announcement is working against him: it’s easily characterised as a u-turn on tax cuts, when in truth the former Chancellor is far more interested in reducing the tax burden than perhaps his time in the Treasury conveyed. Team Sunak was always planning to hold back his bigger policy announcements for later in the campaign.

There's an almighty debate ongoing in the US about what exactly a 'recession' is. Treasury secretary Janet Yellen said the US economy is not shrinking, saying it is in a state of 'transition', not recession. But in a clip from 2000 being circulated on Twitter that is comically apt, Bill Clinton said 'a recession is two quarters in a row of negative growth'. https://twitter.com/DailyCaller/status/1552720121445105666?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw Regardless of who's right, the US is currently in Bill Clinton's definition of a recession. Figures show that the economy shrank by 0.2 per cent in the second quarter of this year, following a 1.6 per cent fall in the first quarter. Over the year, the US economy is now 0.9 per cent smaller than it was a year ago.

‘Black swan’ theory, developed by the writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb, refers to unexpected events that have extreme consequences but are rationalised afterwards by pundits who say ‘That was always going to happen.’ Covid was a big one; Putin’s war on Ukraine another. It’s in the nature of global events that there’s always a dark-feathered disruptor lurking somewhere, waiting to make its presence felt. Right now, it just might be hidden in reports of protestors in Zhengzhou, capital of China’s Henan province, demanding their money back from four local banks that suspended withdrawals in April. Runs on small banks are not unknown in China; nor is embezzlement by corrupt managers.

Cockburn was on one of his regular jaunts through LinkedIn this week, on the lookout for more gainful employment than the Speccie currently offers him. During his perusal, one word kept catching his eye on the profiles of other users: “Rescinded.” Prospective employees are deciding to denote when a company had made them a job offer — and then changed their mind after a change in corporate hiring plans. The cryptocurrency wallet company Coinbase appears to be one of the biggest offenders. Ashutosh, a software engineer, posted the following: After considering several factors, I had chosen to join Coinbase over pursuing a PhD.

Here I go again, in my occasional role as your intrepid transport correspondent. Last week I reported on airport chaos, last month on the opening of the Elizabeth line. Now here I am boldly defying the rail strike on a Grand Central train from York to King’s Cross. To be honest, on a perfect sunny morning, it feels less stressful than my regular journeys on this crowded and often disrupted line. The RMT pickets at the station entrance were less aggressive than the pigeons on the platform trying to steal a bite of my bacon roll.

All is not well with the economy. It’s true that 390,000 jobs were added last month, exceeding estimates, while hourly income is up 5.2 percent since May 2021. However, analysts guessed unemployment would drop a tenth of a percent, which didn’t happen. Gas prices keep rising, as GasBuddy.com reports a 43 cent jump over this time last month. It’s enough of a problem that OPEC has agreed to increase production in July and August. The economy remains stricken by inflation, with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen issuing a mea maxima culpa earlier this week. “I think I was wrong then about the path that inflation would take," she told CNN on Tuesday.

I sincerely hope you’re not reading this on a holiday flight that’s sitting on the tarmac with no indication as to when it might take off – or a sad train home after your flight was suddenly cancelled. Brace for three-hour delays at security, we’re told; don’t even try checking bags in, and at worst, as happened to Tui passengers at Manchester who thought they were going to Kos, watch out for a text after you’ve boarded telling you you’re going nowhere at all. How and why? When the pandemic set in, airlines and airports – thinking, not unreasonably, that their industry was doomed – made mass redundancies rather than keeping sufficient staff on furlough.

It’s 8.16 on Tuesday morning and I’m actually writing this on a moving Elizabeth line train. Moving in the sense that we’ve just zipped from Paddington to Liverpool Street in 13 minutes – which if nothing else will be a boon for City commuters from west of London. Moving also in the sense that I’ve been writing about the project formerly known as Crossrail, first in optimism but later in frustration and rage, since its then chairman Terry Morgan gave me a personal tour of the Bond Street diggings back in June 2013.

In principle, the UK’s energy price cap is supposed to provide a buffer for consumers who might otherwise see their energy bills go through the roof. But governments can’t control international energy prices: a lesson that has been learned the hard way over the past six months, as dozens of energy companies have gone bust, unable to raise prices for customers to reflect increasing wholesale costs. Meanwhile the cap has not stopped bills from skyrocketing: Ofgem’s last price cap went up by 54 per cent, taking the total cost for an average household to just under £2,000 per year.

Anecdotes and statistics should never be confused, but let’s do just that to build a composite picture of today’s UK economy. As the ‘cost of living crisis’ – barely out of its starting blocks – began to eat spending power and erode confidence, high street sales fell 1.4 per cent in March while non-store retail (largely online) dropped 7.9 per cent. Office occupancy, blighted by working from home, is stuck below 30 per cent of capacity. The City of London is a ghost town on Mondays and Fridays, while West End footfall remains a fifth below 2019 levels. But in case you’re planning a resumed commute or an in-town shopping binge any time soon, be aware that rail workers are threatening ‘the biggest rail strike in modern history’.