Covid-19

Wednesday

Wolfgang Münchau

Can the EU save Italy?

There’s been a lot of hype around the green light given by the European Commission yesterday to Italy’s recovery plan. But let’s break it down: the final headline numbers are €68.9 billion in EU grants by the year 2026 and €123 billion in loans. If you take the grant component, and divide it over the six-year duration, you arrive at an average of 0.6-0.7 per cent of Italy’s 2019 GDP each year. It is front-loaded, and it’s by no means a modest sum. What’s harder to accept however, is folding in the loan component to arrive at some giant fake headline number. The whole point of this exercise is not to produce a classic fiscal boost, but fiscally-assisted structural reforms.

Robert Peston

What can Britain learn from Israel on ending lockdown?

Israel has been the world’s whole-country experiment to establish how, and how fast, Covid vaccination can return life to normal (as much as life is ever normal in a country where there is constant tension over the rights and future of Palestinians). I am in Jerusalem, trying to understand the implications for stability in Israel and peace in the Middle East of a new government where prime minister Naftali Bennett is opposed to any kind of Palestinian state, and the alternate PM Yair Lapid passionately believes a two-state solution is the only answer.

Tuesday

Molly Kingsley

Covid restrictions are taking a terrible toll on our schoolchildren

In some senses, life in Britain is slowly returning to normal. Thousands of people gathered to watch Royal Ascot last week. Next week is Wimbledon, where 15,000 fans will pack into centre court to watch the finals. Meanwhile at Euro 2021, up to 65,000 people are expected to attend the tournament's climax at Wembley. It’s wonderful to see these sporting events back. However, it is deeply troubling that this ‘can do’ attitude doesn't seem to apply to events holding equivalent significance in children’s lives. The end of what has been a historically troubled school year is upon us.

Andrew Tettenborn

Prepare for the EU’s ‘Hamilton moment’

The EU may boast a common currency like any other state (even if nearly a third of its 27 members do not use it). It may also have, through its regulatory jurisdiction over banks and financial services, a vast say in the running of the financial system throughout the bloc: powers at least comparable to those of a federal government such as that in Canada or Australia. But there is one thing the EU has not yet managed to get: a unified tax system.  Any attempt seriously to impinge on national tax laws still requires unanimity among member states. This irks Euro-federalists.  One reason is that it draws the centre into unseemly squabbles.

Monday

Ross Clark

Is Covid really to blame for HS2’s runaway costs?

Covid has doomed the public finances — not just because the cost of mitigating it has been high in itself but because it has normalised high public spending. When you have just allocated £37 billion to Test and Trace and spend £54 billion on the furlough scheme, a £106 billion high-speed railway to Manchester and Leeds looks relatively good value — at least taxpayers will have something lasting for their money. And who would even notice if the budget for that railway quietly crept up by a further £1.7 billion? That is exactly what has happened today. The construction costs of the first phase of the railway, from London to Birmingham, have apparently been increased by social distancing.

Jonathan Sacerdoti

What’s the real reason Israel’s vaccines were rejected by Palestinians?

Sipping an iced coffee in a Tel Aviv café this week, it felt like it was 2018 again. Nobody wears a face mask, tables are close together and there’s no hand gel in sight. Very few people one meets even talk about Covid-19. Though a tiny increase in the occurrence of the Indian variant has been noted in recent days, Israel is rightly proud of its vaccination and mass immunity success. It is therefore surprising that Israel’s offer to advance over one million Pfizer vaccines to the Palestinians has been rejected by the Palestinian Authority only hours after they initially accepted the deal. Many countries are still grappling with the ethical dilemma of when to offer their own supply of vaccines abroad to help others; few are expecting such offers to be rejected.

Gabriel Gavin

How Russia lurched from vaccine victory to Covid crisis

Russia made headlines last August when it triumphantly unveiled its pioneering coronavirus vaccine, Sputnik V. But now, nearly a year on, it has a more dubious claim to fame – as the anti-vax capital of the world. For months now, sparkling clean pop-up clinics offering jabs to the public, with no appointment needed, have been open for business in shopping centres and food halls across the country. With three domestic formulas approved and millions of vials in reserve, there is no shortage of doses for anyone who wants one. And yet, Russians just aren't signing up.  New data from research giant Morning Consult, based on 75,000 weekly interviews with people across the globe, has found the nation has the highest level of vaccine scepticism of anywhere surveyed.

Sunday

Fraser Nelson

Ministers need to start bracing Britain for the third wave

The third wave of Covid-19 may now be no more deadly than a typical wave of influenza (thanks to vaccines) but be in no doubt: the rise in cases is real, likely to continue for some time and may dwarf the second wave. It may still be safe to unlock against this backdrop, but this (very different) scenario would need properly explained, with self-isolation rules rewritten. The facts have changed, but the argument has not (yet) changed. We've been tracking the emergence of the India/Delta variant on The Spectator's data hub. The below is a summary of the likely direction of travel. It has taken the UK from having the lowest Covid case levels in Europe to having the highest in just a few weeks - with much more still to come.

Thursday

Andy Cowper

No, Mr Hancock, Covid didn’t cause the NHS backlog

You might think that a cabinet minister and privy councillor whose reputation for truthfulness had been brought into (very public) question would be inclined to keep their public utterances strictly on the straight and narrow. You’d be failing to allow for the enthusiastic approach of the Health Secretary. Matt Hancock used his presentation to today’s NHS Confederation Conference to try to explain that the five million-strong NHS backlog, claiming it was down to Covid-19. Asked about providing guarantees of funding to address the NHS backlog, Mr Hancock told the event that 'the virus is responsible, and the backlog is a consequence of the pandemic'.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRErV48sz5I This is, quite simply, untrue.

Kate Andrews

Delay, data and the need for transparency

Boris Johnson delayed 21 June, he said, because the data did not merit a full reopening. The specific data government is tracking to make these decisions remains unknown, so we are left to guess. But it’s hard to imagine the decision was disconnected from the rising Covid infection rate across the UK, due to the Indian variant’s increased transmissibility. The UK has gone from having some of the lowest Covid rates in Europe to now having the highest in just a matter of weeks. But is the story that simple? Data from areas hit hardest and fastest by the Indian variant suggest some reasons to be optimistic. In Bolton, the seven-day average for Covid cases leveled off (and started falling) weeks before the government settled on a 21 June delay.

Melissa Kite

My medical embarrassments are my business and no one else’s

While we were looking forward to Freedom Day, the National Health Service was busy planning something extra special to coincide with it almost exactly. From 23 June, our medical records can be given by our GPs to other agencies and third parties for the purpose of that most ambiguous of all state activities, ‘planning’. While you thought they were busy planning Freedom Day, they were, in fact, planning Freedom of Your Information Day, in which everything you have ever told your doctor would become only marginally more secure than the information about your shopping habits that your loyalty card is collecting for the supermarket giants.

Wednesday

Katy Balls

What does the latest ‘Dom bomb’ mean for Matt Hancock?

When Dominic Cummings gave seven hours of evidence to a Commons inquiry into the government's Covid response, it was Matt Hancock who received the most criticism. The former No. 10 senior aide's accusation that the Health Secretary was negligent – the most serious charge being that Hancock had misled the government over testing and care homes – led to questions over Hancock's position. But it quickly became clear No. 10 had no plans to fire Hancock. The Prime Minister opted to rally round his minister rather than cast him out. So, does the publication of WhatsApp messages allegedly showing the Prime Minister heavily criticising Hancock change things?

Patrick O’Flynn

Brexit, lockdown and the fracturing of British politics

Is our society becoming less tolerant and more viscerally tribal? Or is our politics provoking people into committing more angry and desperate acts? The harassment of BBC Newsnight political editor Nick Watt in Whitehall this week by a group of anti-lockdown protestors recalled the ugly mood that descended on the environs of the Palace of Westminster during the Brexit stalemate of 2016-20. Back then, it was Remainer MP Anna Soubry who suffered the worst incident of intimidation, while the Leaver Jacob Rees-Mogg was also horribly abused by a pro-EU crowd as he walked home from a key vote with one of his children. Many of us might have hoped that such a level of polarisation was a peculiarity of how Brexit played out and would by now be securely in the political rear view mirror.

Raghib Ali

Lockdown delay is a price worth paying

For the first time during this pandemic, I think we should delay lifting restrictions. Looking at the latest data, it seems that the Prime Minister was right to postpone ‘Freedom Day’. I am no zero-Covider. Its clear restrictions can be as harmful as Covid. Last September, it seemed obvious that a ‘circuit breaker’ lockdown would have just postponed the wave further into winter. In February, the government did the right thing by explicitly ruling out an elimination policy and introducing its roadmap. At the front of everyone's minds should be minimising harm. This time around, minimising harm means delaying reopening. The situation is completely different from other stages of the pandemic.

Tuesday

Andy Cowper

How NHS boss Simon Stevens could soon cause trouble for Boris

NHS England boss Sir Simon Stevens's final speech today was watched online by hundreds of health service bigwigs. But its main audience was much smaller. It was aimed squarely at just two people: Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak. Stevens’s main message was about funding. The government, and, in particular, the Treasury, may not be thrilled once they wrap their heads around his statement on the five-million-strong (and Covid-predating) NHS backlog that 'when the health service is given the backing and the tools we need, we can deliver what's required'. Translated into plainer language, Stevens was saying: ‘Get your wallets out: this is going to hurt’.

Ross Clark

Is furlough holding back the jobs market?

The latest employment figures, published this morning, confirm a remarkable aspect of the Covid pandemic: that it appears to have caused no more than a little bump in the jobs miracle of the past decade. That is in spite of the economy shrinking by nearly 10 per cent in 2020 — a performance that in the past would have led to millions out of work. In May the unemployment rate fell by 0.3 per cent to 4.7 per cent. By contrast, it reached over 8 per cent during and after the 2008 financial crash. But of course, the unemployment figures don’t tell the whole story — not when we have a furlough scheme in operation, something that was absent from previous economic crises. To put the situation into perspective, in May there were 1.

Annabel Denham

The cost of delaying ‘freedom day’

When Boris Johnson announced that unlocking would be guided by ‘data not dates’ he handed detractors ample scope for derision and defiance. In the four months since, lockdown critics have rightly insisted that he uphold the slogan and accelerate a roadmap, designed to move at such a glacial speed, that it risked fraying the DNA of our economy and permanently crushing our joie de vivre.  Why did we spend Easter isolated from loved ones? April in wintry beer gardens? Why did we roll out the vaccine at phenomenal pace only to keep restrictions in place as the number of Covid deaths hit single digits? Contrary to expectation, however, that mantra was probably a good hill to die on.

Monday

Isabel Hardman

Speaker blasts Boris again over lockdown announcement

The government has just suffered a further verbal drubbing for the way it announced it would be delaying the roadmap out of Covid restrictions.  Matt Hancock gave a statement in the Commons tonight, a couple of hours after the Prime Minister announced all the details of the delay. Before he spoke, though, he had to listen to a still-angry Speaker explaining why this was so unacceptable.  Hoyle wasn't the only one to complain about the way ministers had behaved Hoyle once again described the government's behaviour as 'entirely unacceptable', adding that it was 'disrespectful to the House and to our constituents'.

Katy Balls

Boris Johnson delays the end of lockdown

Boris Johnson has this evening confirmed that he will delay the lifting of all Covid restrictions by four weeks to 19 July. Announcing the decision in a press conference, Johnson said the Indian variant – also known as the Delta variant – has changed the picture and meant the government was no longer able to proceed with the full unlocking plan they had first hoped.  The Prime Minister said two jabs were very effective against the new variant. The problem? 'There are still millions of younger adults who have not been vaccinated and sadly a proportion of the elderly and vulnerable may still succumb even if they have had two jabs,' Johnson said.

James Forsyth

The lockdown delay has triggered a constitutional crisis

It is not the Battle of Marston Moor, but it strikes me that we are now in something of a constitutional crisis following the Speaker’s dramatic outburst this afternoon. In response to points of order about the fact Boris Johnson is announcing lockdown changes in a press conference rather than to parliament, Hoyle said that he had been told no decisions had been taken only to find out that there was an embargoed document setting out what changes were coming. A visibly furious Hoyle declared from the chair that: ‘This House is being misled’. Considering that misleading the House is a resigning matter, this is a remarkably serious accusation for the Speaker to level against Downing Street.