Covid-19

Will it be necessary to produce a passe sanitaire (vaccination passport) to be allowed to vote in France? With 221 days until the first round of the next presidential election, the mere rumour of such a sinister measure is provoking near hysteria. ‘Fake news’ shrieked the media aligned with president Emmanuel Macron (frankly, most of it) tonight. Perhaps. It’s true that the government’s vaccination passport law currently being rushed through the National Assembly does not specifically mandate proof of vaccination to vote. More than 175 demonstrations against the passe sanitaire are scheduled this weekend But neither does it specifically exclude it.

Was there ever a national crisis which was so easy to solve? There are reports of supermarket shelves emptying, petrol stations running out of fuel and panic-buying. This in not unprecedented. Yet on this occasion the government doesn’t have to deal with a bolshie trade union, enter difficult negotiations with an EU which is determined to punish us for Brexit or even handle the early, unknown stages of a pandemic. All the Prime Minister has to do is to announce that the changes to the Test and Trace system already earmarked for 16 August – when fully-vaccinated people will no longer be forced to self-isolate for ten days but could be advised to get tested instead – be enacted immediately. The panic would immediately be over.

What is the point of the Covid-19 app? Ministers seem to be as in the dark about the answer to this question as the rest of us, with the government tying itself in knots over whether it means anything at all to get 'pinged' and told to self-isolate. Downing Street has contradicted Business Minister Paul Scully, who said this morning that there was no need to self-isolate if it was just the app that alerted you. He told Times Radio:  It seems that there is a genuine schism in Whitehall 'The app is there to give...to allow you to make informed decisions. And I think by backing out of mandating a lot of things, we're encouraging people to really get the data in their own hands to be able to make decisions on what's best for them, whether they're an employer or an employee.

On the day that nearly all legal Covid restrictions go, one could be forgiven for presuming ministers would be in the mood for celebration. Instead the press conference Boris Johnson led this afternoon to mark so-called freedom day proved a sombre affair. The Prime Minister was forced to dial in remotely after having to self isolate as a result of coming into close contact with the Health Secretary last week, who has since tested positive for Covid. From his self isolation, Johnson went on to unveil plans for vaccine passports for nightclubs and contingency plans to keep the country moving as millions face self isolation in the coming weeks.

In a Science Museum webinar yesterday, Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, warned about the increasing number of people in hospital and said that, if in the next five to eight weeks 'things are not topping out, we do have to look again and see where we think things are going.'  He added that 'we've still got 2,000 people in hospital and that number is increasing. If we double from 2,000 to 4,000 from 4,000 to 8,000...and so on, it doesn't take many doubling times until you're in very, very large numbers indeed.'  If new restrictions are imposed as schools go back, the government will find itself in the worst political position it has been in yet during this pandemic The implication of these statements is that some restrictions could come back.

A very strange ‘freedom day’ greets us on Monday. Legally, almost all restrictions will be lifted. But practically, ministers are deeply worried by the surge of the Indian variant and the rise of hospitalisations to around 600 a day — a figure that will probably double according to the Bristol University PCCF project (which we at The Spectator find to be the most reliable). Hence this massive fudge: the government abolishing the mask mandate but saying it ‘expects’ people to wear them in shops and crowded spaces nonetheless. The NHS will continue to mandate them in hospitals. Then perhaps the biggest surprise: the vaccine passport U-turn whereby companies are told it’s their social duty to ask people for proof of immunity or a negative test.

Will the French accept compulsory vaccination against Covid? Health passports to get on a plane or train? Children of 12 jabbed, whether their parents wish it or not? As fears are stoked of yet another wave of infection, we may be about to find out. In recent days, France has seemed rather normal with restaurants open, summer holidays in full swing, tourists returning, shops open. But we’re told that none of this will last. ‘We must vaccinate all of France,’ president Macron announced last night in his fifth Covid television address so far. It was a striking elocution. Macron ditched his habitual black undertaker outfit for a smart blue suit, and his office in the Elysée for the dome of the Grand Palais, framing the Eiffel Tower.

How different will life be after 19 July? Not very, if the Prime Minister’s press conference this evening was anything to go by. As with Sajid Javid’s statement in the Commons earlier confirming the final step of the road map, Boris Johnson’s emphasis seemed muted. He said he expected people to continue wearing masks, working from home and generally not making the full use of the freedoms they are being given next week. Johnson warned that ‘this is not the end of Covid’, that he didn’t want the public to be ‘demob happy’ and that we ‘must be cautious’ as we take the next step out of the restrictions.

There is a myth in football that you are always most susceptible to letting in a goal after you have just scored one. It’s probably not true but the idea is attractive. At the peak of our achievement we are vulnerable to complacency. Is a similar thing happening with the vaccine programme? The current prevailing narrative is that the declining rates of vaccination are the fault of the under 30s. Government scientists accept that the country is 'close to maximum take-up', with many young people still hesitant about vaccination, the Times reported this week. But is that right? There is probably some truth to the less-than-urgent demand amongst this lower-risk group. But focusing on uptake among young people alone obscures a more obvious issue.

Shortly before Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer were slugging it out in PMQs — debating whether the mass-lifting of restrictions on 19 July is indeed a good idea — the Office for National Statistics released their latest antibody survey, the details of which support the Prime Minister’s argument for reopening. It is now estimated that roughly nine in ten adults in England, Wales and Northern Ireland had antibodies in the week beginning 14 June (eight out of ten in Scotland). Moreover, antibody prevalence is on the rise in younger age groups. The percentage of adults testing positive for antibodies aged 35 and older ranges between 94 per cent and 99 per cent — with the most antibody protection detected for the elderly.