Covid-19

All current ills in the world, of course, can be blamed on two things: climate change and Brexit. So far, there are few people blaming the rationing of petrol and diesel on extreme weather-related to climate change (although give it time), but the usual suspects have certainly been quick out of the blocks to blame it all on Brexit. Lord Adonis, for example, has claimed:  'Brexit is now leading to fuel-rationing' BP has blamed its inability to keep petrol stations stocked on a shortage of lorry-drivers, but can that really be blamed on Brexit?  In July, the Road Haulage Association (RHA) published a survey of 615 haulage firms as to what they thought was the cause of the then already-developing driver shortage.

Could flu be a bigger problem than Covid this winter? Professor Anthony Harnden, the deputy chair of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, has warned that it might be, suggesting that the low prevalence of flu over recent months could come back to 'bite us' as the weather worsens. There are also fears that reduced levels of flu in recent months could make it much harder to develop a successful jab. In a normal year, the route to a flu vaccine is well trodden. The annual flu vaccination programme first began in England in the 1960s, and since 2000, all over 65s have been offered the jab every year. Healthy children have also been offered a live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) in school, administered as a nasal spray, for the last eight years.

One of the great lessons from the early stages of the pandemic was the need to shorten supply chains and make them more robust. This was especially true for medical supplies. Just-in-time supply chains have been developed over the years to increase efficiency, but had never been tested in a global crisis when demand for certain medical products is high and supply is weak. The government ended up paying huge sums for PPE which, in some cases, was not even suitable for use. The shortage raises eyebrows because a plastic tube is, after all, a plastic tube It seems the lesson has not entirely been learned. There is now a shortage of blood tubes – the small plastic tubes which are used for collecting samples of blood.

In the early days of the pandemic, Australia was the envy of the world. The country was lauded as a model of how to handle the virus. Australian states recorded few cases; and when there were outbreaks, authorities brought them under control quickly. All that has changed. Now, well into the second half of 2021, Australia is losing its grip on the virus. While other major cities such as New York, London, and Paris, are opening up, Sydney is under lockdown. Even outside the nation’s major cities, travel restrictions are severely limiting movement for Australians within the country. Australia’s politicians have sought to blame the Delta variant of coronavirus. But in truth, the new strain is only part of the story.

The latest French export to the United States is a requirement that people show proof of vaccination to visit indoor bars, concert venues, restaurants and gyms. But will it work? On Tuesday, Mayor Bill de Blasio announced that New York City will be the first American metropolis to import the French health pass. Marketed like an upscale perk, the 'Key to NYC Pass' program will begin on 16 August and become mandatory on 13 September. De Blasio is doing his best to sell the pass as a carrot, rather than the stick it really is. But his rhetoric is still ominous. He said: 'It is so important to make clear that if you are vaccinated, you get to benefit in all sorts of ways. You get to live a better life. Besides your health in general, you get to participate in many, many things.

The Westminster rumour mill is in overdrive today on the question of whether Rishi Sunak will be Boris Johnson's successor in No. 10. It's not that there's a job vacancy. Instead, the first ConservativeHome poll on who Tory members would like to be the party's next leader has put Sunak out on top, with International Trade secretary Liz Truss in second and Cabinet Office minister Penny Mordaunt a close third. The poll isn't exactly helpful timing for the Chancellor. Given the weekend papers were filled with stories of Sunak calling on Johnson to relax travel rules, anything that fuels talk of leadership manoeuvres is problematic for No. 11.  However, the poll that ought to worry the Prime Minister most doesn't relate to who will eventually replace him.

What is the biggest single threat to the Tories being re-elected? The NHS waiting list, I say in the Times today. Already more than five million people are waiting for routine hospital treatment in England. Sajid Javid has warned that this number could rise to 13 million — which would be one in four of the population. Simon Stevens, the just-departed head of NHS England, has warned that this waiting list could take three years to clear which takes you right up to the next election. For Labour, the backlog list offers the easiest and most comfortable of attack lines: 'You can’t trust the Tories with the NHS'. If millions are stuck waiting for treatment, this line will have huge resonance.