Conservative party

Today's GDP figures are another sign that the recovery is strengthening. The 0.8 per cent growth in the first quarter is equivalent to more than 3 per cent annual growth. This means that the UK is on course to have the fastest growing economy in the G7 this year. The rapid fire press releases from Osborne, Alexander and Clegg this morning all strive to avoid saying that the job is done. But with the economy having grown 3.1 per cent since this time last year, it is clear that the economy is now on a far healthier trajectory. No one can say that it is bumping along the bottom anymore. The crucial political question is, as always, when and how many voters will feel the benefits of the recovery. My sense is that by the autumn more people will be beginning to feel it.

Where will the ministers whose constituencies will be affected by HS2 be when the legislation reaches its key votes in the Commons? As I said on Friday, the chances are that some of them might suddenly find they need to travel overseas quite urgently when MPs vote at second reading on Monday, and again at report stage and third reading later on. The ministers in question are as follows: David Lidington – Con – Aylesbury and Buckinghamshire. Minister of State for Europe. Dominic Grieve – Con – Beaconsfield. Attorney General. Jeremy Wright – Con – Kenilworth and Southam. Minister for Prisons and Rehabilitation. Nick Hurd – Con – Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner. Minister for Civil Society. Andrea Leadsom – Con – South Northamptonshire.

The High-Speed Rail Bill pops up in the Commons on Monday - with two attempts to kill it off planned. Michael Fabricant and Cheryl Gillan - whose constituencies would both be affected by the proposed route - have both drawn up motions which call for the House of Commons to decline to give the Bill a second reading. Fabricant was sacked from his position as Vice Chair of the Conservative party for pushing ahead with his motion (and a number of other things, too) and has the support of Sir Edward Leigh, Jeremy Lefroy, David Davis, David Nuttall, William Cash, Caroline Spelman, Bob Blackman, Chris Kelly and Andrew Turner.

Who will go where in the forthcoming reshuffle? Guido suggests that Michael Gove could be in for a move to party chairman, given all his major reforms have either been implemented or blocked by the Lib Dems. Number 10 has certainly told Gove that he will be playing an increasing role in the general election campaign: I understand this was made clear to him in the winter of last year, which would explain why David Cameron was quite so cross about the Education Secretary's comments to the FT about Etonians. Cameron recognises that Gove is a smooth media performer who doesn't wilt under the heat of the studio lights, or under the heat of a grilling from top interviewers.

Nigel Farage’s strategy for winning the European Elections is based around winning over blue collar workers who normally vote Labour. Ukip believe that they can use immigration as a battering ram to break through Labour’s defences in the north. One of the party’s campaign billboards unveiled last night simply says, ’26 million people in Europe are looking for work. And whose jobs are they after’. (I suspect that Ukip will welcome the controversy these posters are attracting because it will help amplify their message) https://twitter.com/Adrian_Hilton/statuses/458163441531097088 Ukip’s argument is that it is the only party that can actually do something about immigration.

All three main parties have now hired foreign advisers to help run their general election campaigns. These foreign advisers have one thing in common: they’re all from the English speaking world. Despite our membership of the European Union, when it comes to winning elections, all our political parties think there is more to learn from other English speaking countries than France or Italy. Indeed, it is hard to imagine any of them putting a European in charge of their campaign. But they are all delighted to have their American, Australian and South African campaign hands. Partly, this is a language thing. But, I think, it also goes deeper than that.

The Prime Minister is planning to cap the total number of onshore wind farms in Britain. But what would limiting the number of wind farms to those in existence or already in the planning system mean? The UK already has 7.1GW worth of turbines spinning away. There are 1.8GW under construction and some 4.3GW approved but not yet built. Once all these are up and running it will bring the total to 12.2GW. The government plans to install between 11GW to 13GW of onshore wind by 2020. If they were to limit turbines to those built or in the process of building, it would make precisely no difference at all. And, while we are number crunching, there is a further 8.3GW in the planning system but not yet approved. According to the industry, 1GW is enough to power 535,000 homes.

There are only five months to go to the Scottish referendum and the Cabinet is becoming increasingly agitated about the state of the Unionist campaign. At Tuesday’s meeting there was a frank and realistic discussion about its problems. The government’s concern is prompted by the fact that it has fired its biggest gun, telling the Scots there’ll be no currency union after independence, but the Nationalists are still standing. Indeed, they appear to have strengthened their position. The coalition now thinks that part of the problem is that there are not enough purely Scottish voices making the case for the Union. They fear that even Scots with Westminster seats are, to some extent, seen as outsiders in this debate. Another worry is the state of Scottish Labour.

Well, those who get themselves worked up about the presence of Martin McGuinness around the Royal Family would not have enjoyed last night’s musical extravaganza, Ceiliuradh, for the Irish president at the Albert Hall. They’d have been on their own, mind you. Everyone else had a ball; it was a packed house for Elvis Costello plus Fiona Shaw and Dermot O’Leary, but the knockout element was the combined band of the Irish Guards and the Irish Defence Force doing the Minstrel Boy, which made me cry. That was a nice touch: Tom Moore, its author, was lionised in London as much as in Ireland.

It's difficult to know what astonished people more about Michael Fabricant's sacking: that he has lost his job or that he was still in a role that required some semblance of collective responsibility. Shortly after assuming the role of Vice Chair of the Conservative Party, he called for a pact with Ukip. Some of his tweets have raised eyebrows. He said it was 'about time' that Maria Miller resigned.