Brexit

Tuesday

Steerpike

Has Will Straw finally found the recipe for political success?

Will Straw hasn’t had much joy when it comes to politics. In 2015, Straw tried – and failed – to follow in his father’s footsteps by becoming a Labour MP, losing out to his Tory rival Jake Berry in Rossendale and Darwen. A year later, Straw’s luck hadn’t improved: in his role as executive director of Britain Stronger in Europe, he led the official Remain campaign to defeat in the EU referendum. But now, it seems, Straw may have finally found the recipe for winning. In an article in the Guardian under the headline ‘I was part of the remain campaign. Here’s how to win a people’s vote’, Straw offer

Robert Peston

Has Theresa May got a Brexit plan B?

Here is what I have learned about this morning’s cabinet meeting: 1) The Prime Minister is still refusing to rule out a no-deal Brexit, in spite of pressure to do so from a number of ministers – but most notably from the Work and Pensions Secretary of State, Amber Rudd. In respect of May’s attitude to no-deal, the PM was “inscrutable as always”, according to one of those in the meeting. But another has told me that Theresa May confirmed she would make a statement if her deal is – as expected – rejected by MPs next week. No minister expects her to announce at that juncture that the UK

Monday

Sam Gyimah-Mp

It’s time to think the unthinkable on Brexit

Make no mistake, Britain is on the brink. This week Parliament will re-start the debate on the Prime Minister’s Brexit Deal, having lost a month. In all likelihood, the House of Commons will vote down a deal that deserves to be defeated. Parliament is deadlocked. Our country is bitterly divided. It is no exaggeration to say we face the greatest political and constitutional emergency we’ve had in peacetime. This is not in response to any external threat or challenge. The tragedy is we have done this to ourselves. But, because of that, we can step back from the brink. It doesn’t have to be like this. There is still time

Steerpike

Brexit: The Uncivil War – fact or fiction?

After months of controversy, James Graham’s new Brexit drama finally aired tonight, portraying the bitterly fought campaign to win the Brexit referendum. Defying the expectations of many, the show has been praised for its reasonably accurate portrayal of events, and for striking a balanced tone between Leavers and Remainers. But as is normal when a drama is based on real-life, as the closing credits rolled viewers could easily be left wondering: how much of what took place was real, and how much was wrong, exaggerated or distorted? Happily for those wondering, Mr S is on hand to distinguish the fact from the fiction: Vote Leave’s dodgy data Following the Observer’s investigation

James Forsyth

Theresa May’s Brexit deal still looks doomed

Taking the temperature in Westminster today, it appears that Theresa May doesn’t have much more of a chance of winning the meaningful vote than she did when she pulled it before Christmas. The mood has improved a bit for her deal, but by nowhere near enough for her to pass it. Indeed, interestingly the full bore Brexiteers appear to be embracing ‘no deal’ more firmly than before. Boris Johnson’s Daily Telegraph column today is striking for the willingness with which it embraces no deal, rather than just arguing for a pivot to Canada. I understand that the Government expects the EU’s pre-vote help to come towards the end of this

Steerpike

Do these 83 MPs understand how no-deal Brexit works?

This morning a group of more than 200 MPs from several parties made waves by penning a letter to the Prime Minister, urging her to rule out Britain leaving the European Union without a deal. In the text, they argued that a ‘mechanism that would ensure a no-deal Brexit could not take place’ would have the support of parliament. That may be so, but Mr Steerpike was curious to note how few of the MPs who signed the letter seem to actually understand the Brexit process. Unfortunately for them, unless an alternative is actively proposed – such as revoking Brexit or accepting May’s deal – no deal can’t be ruled

Fraser Nelson

The three scenes from Ch4’s Brexit film that show why Remain lost | 7 January 2019

As soon as Channel 4 announced Benedict Cumberbatch had been cast as Dominic Cummings in its Brexit film, a hatchet job was expected. Some might still see it this way. I found it balanced, gripping, and at times funny, even moving. Plenty will be written about which parts were accurate and which not, but this was drama, not documentary. The story it tells is perhaps the most important story of our times: how politicians had become stuck in a late-90s time warp using a Clinton-era playbook, and thought Remain would easily win the referendum. But they lost because politics changes and the new energy was coming from forgotten voters who

Lloyd Evans

‘Brexit: The Uncivil War’ will please both Leavers and Remainers

It starts with a balding weirdo locked in a cupboard ranting about mythological abstractions. This is Dominic Cummings, the key figure in Channel 4’s Brexit film, The Uncivil War, and the opening scene is designed to overcome a major hurdle. How to make the audience – half of whom loathe Brexit – feel sympathy for the man credited with making it happen. Trapping him in a neon-lit cell with only his thoughts for company turns him into a tormented martyr. Next we see him being sized up as a potential director of the Leave campaign. Deep in his guts he loathes politicians – and the entire Westminster establishment – especially

Mary Wakefield

Benedict Cumberbatch on playing my husband, Dominic Cummings

Imagine looking at a photo of a stranger and feeling in response, quite naturally, the sort of happy affection you might feel towards a spouse. Well, it’s weird. In July this year, when Benedict Cumberbatch was filming Channel 4’s upcoming Brexit film (Brexit: The Uncivil War) a friend sent me some photos by text message, tabloid snaps from the set. Benedict plays my husband Dominic Cummings, director of the Leave campaign, and the shots were long-lens and hazy: Ben/Dom pushing his son on a swing; Ben/Dom kissing his wife. The real son-of-Dom and I were halfway through our Rice Krispies when the photos came through and I remember how taken

Sunday

Matthew Taylor

Sunday Shows Roundup: Theresa May – Meaningful Brexit vote will ‘definitely’ be in January

As MPs prepare to return to Westminster following the Christmas recess, the Prime Minister has given her first TV interview of the new year. With the deadline for Brexit fast approaching, Theresa May again put the case for her Brexit deal, on which she postponed a crucial Commons vote in December. Andrew Marr asked her if this time, the vote would definitely be going ahead: TM: Yes we are going to hold the vote… The debate will start next week and it will carry on until the following week, but we will be holding the vote. AM: We’re talking about the 15th or 14th? TM: That sort of timing, yes.

James Forsyth

New Year, same old May

Theresa May doesn’t yet have anything concrete to offer MPs who have concerns about her Brexit deal. On Marr this morning, May repeatedly talked about how she was seeking ‘assurances’ on the backstop. But she clearly hasn’t got them yet. Interestingly, May indicated that the assurances she’s looking for are around a start date for the new relationship; rather than a time limit or clearer exit mechanism. This would mean that the backstop would not be ‘indefinite’ as there’d be a start date for the future trade relationship. However, this approach immediately raises two questions. First, would the future relationship apply to the whole of the UK or just Great

Saturday

Robert Peston

Theresa May will soon face the decision of her life over Brexit

The Prime Minister does have a strategy to prevent what she sees as the chaos of a no-deal Brexit. The flaw in it is that the strategy probably has a shelf life of just over one week. Because her strategy is to persuade MPs to back her version of leaving the EU in a vote on 15 or 16 January, and in the words of one of her senior ministers: “I will be shot for telling you this but we are going to lose that vote”. So what then? Well, amazingly, no one around her – not her ministers, not her officials – seem to know. Why not? “She won’t

Ross Clark

Will Brexit really hit house prices?

On any other day of the week the Guardian is – with some justification – complaining about a housing crisis, with millions of young people priced-out of ever owning – or even renting – a decent home. Now, however, it seems to be treating with alarm news that prices are stagnating. ‘UK house prices take pre-Brexit hit, says Nationwide’ declared a headline this week – followed by news that house prices have, in fact, risen by 0.5 per cent over the past 12 months. That is a lot lower than we have become used to in recent decades, but isn’t it a good thing if rampant house price inflation has

Friday

Steerpike

Jeremy Corbyn condemns the people of Milton Keynes

Jeremy Corbyn has a message for the people of Milton Keynes: I condemn you. The Labour leader delivered his criticism at an event in 2011 after voters in the town booted out pro-Palestinian Labour MP Phyllis Starkey. He told the audience: ‘I condemn the people of Milton Keynes for the mistakes that they made in the May election but they will have a chance for (sic) correct their mistakes hopefully in the very near future.’ Unfortunately at the two general elections since Corbyn made his comments, the people of Milton Keynes failed to learn their lesson by twice electing two Tory MPs. Admittedly, at the most recent snap election Labour

Thursday

Katy Balls

Why Jeremy Corbyn won’t back a second referendum yet

Jeremy Corbyn has come under pressure this week to back a second referendum after a YouGov poll found that seven in ten Labour members wish for it to be party policy. So far, Corbyn has resisted such calls for a so-called People’s Vote. In this week’s Spectator, I explain why the Labour leader is reluctant to go near one – at least for the time being. With the Tories in turmoil over Brexit, it’s quite possible — some cabinet members believe probable — that the government may soon collapse with a new general election called. This is Labour’s great hope – and Corbyn hopes to trigger a snap poll by

Martin Vander Weyer

A seven-year winter or a pleasant surprise? Your guess is as good as mine

A friend reminds me that she sold her house last summer because I warned her 18 months ago that Brexit chaos would loom over every aspect of life by the beginning of 2019. I got that horribly right, and I was right too that the dismissive attitude of Westminster politicians towards the Irish border problem — call it ‘the Barnier trap’ if you prefer, but I can tell you I heard grown-up Irish voices trying in vain to alert UK ministers as long ago as September 2016 — would come back to baulk the entire negotiation. But would I care to make any sort of prediction for the three months

Lloyd Evans

Brexit: the movie

‘I try to interpret the most generous version of somebody’s actions,’ says the dramatist James Graham. This rare ability to create open and sympathetic characters has turned the 36-year-old into our foremost political playwright. His breakthrough work, This House, chronicled the terminal decline of James Callaghan’s premiership between 1976 and 1979. Rather than focusing on Callaghan and his destroyer, Margaret Thatcher, the play looked at the backbenchers and party whips who laboured behind the scenes to keep Callaghan’s government afloat. Graham’s plays are comedic but he’s principally an observer rather than a satirist. Yet he recognises the value of caricature. ‘It’s a very necessary weapon with which to hold people

Wednesday

James Kirkup

Five reasons Brexiteers should learn to love the backstop

Westminster conversation about Brexit often suffers a time lag. MPs frequently speak with surprise about things that actually happened months ago and which are regarded as old, established facts in Brussels and policy wonk-world. The backstop is the best example: outlined in the December 2017 Joint Report of the UK and EU negotiators, its meaning and necessity still came as a novelty to some MPs – resigning cabinet ministers included – in June; and to others in November. (The 2017 election result is another instance: it took many Tory MPs at least a year to realise it meant there could be no Commons majority for the hardest form of Brexit; some still

Ross Clark

The good news about Britain’s economy you might not have heard

Britain is, of course, in a Brexit-driven recession of its own making, while other EU countries are powering on ahead without us. Or so we keep being told. The ideas is that we are distancing ourselves from European markets – and concerned manufacturers will move production to factories elsewhere in the EU. While this gloomy analysis appears to be confirmed every time the CBI, IMF and others publish their forecasts, it is becoming increasingly hard to square with the economic data. This morning, IHS/Markit published its monthly Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing – a measure of business activity which leads official government statistics on the economy. The survey takes

Matthew Lynn

The euro is the most dysfunctional currency ever created | 2 January 2019

Even by his usual standards of self-satire, Jean-Claude Juncker was on top form to open the new year. As he uncorked his final bottle of wine for the year, the president of the European Commission found time to blast out a tweet celebrating the twentieth anniversary of the launch of the euro. It has, according to Juncker, become a ‘symbol of unity, sovereignty and stability’, which has delivered ‘prosperity and protection’ to the people of Europe. Juncker was right about one thing of course. The single currency is indeed 20 this week. It was launched on January 1st, 1999, at least for financial transactions, with the actually notes and coins