Latest from Coffee House

Latest from Coffee House

All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories

Are the dirty tricks of Russia’s FSB getting even dirtier?

If your toilet is full of excrement that you don’t remember depositing there yourself, you may be the victim of a particularly unsanitary Russian intelligence operation. Or perhaps you’re just going mad. Or maybe that’s what they want you to think. That is the unsettling possibility confronting Finnish MPs, several of whom have, it was revealed earlier this month, reported break-ins at their homes. One found human waste in his lavatory; Ben Zyskowicz, of the country’s National Coalition party, suspects the hand – well, not quite the hand exactly – of Russian spies. At first glance, such reports could easily be attributed to Russophobia, paranoia or simply the poor state

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Trump has clearly been reading Seneca the Younger

Donald Trump, who has decided not to allow the televising of the spectacle of a soldier being executed by firing squad, has clearly been reading Seneca the Younger, as he would. After all, Seneca was one of Nero’s advisors. In a letter to his friend Lucilius, to which the modern title “On Crowds” has been added, Seneca gives an account of his day at the gladiatorial games. In between the slaughter of animals (in the morning) and of other gladiators (in the afternoon), there was a midday interval which Seneca decided to attend in the hope of finding amusing and witty entertainment of some sort. Far from it. What he saw were condemned criminals, with no armor, fighting each other to the death and being urged on enthusiastically by the crowd. Not that the winner was released.

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Who gives us ‘breathing space?’

The government jargon-turning mills must have rung to cheers of delight when the phrase breathing space was minted. Its glory is to suggest a dawn in which it is bliss to be alive, but without tying anyone down to vulgar sums. The Chancellor has said the Budget will give households more “breathing space.” Is that breathing space on a wide sunny upland or is it a dark, uncertain air pocket in a capsized yacht? I was surprised to find how old the phrase is. George Joye was consoled in the 1540s that God (not the chancellor) “at some certain season giveth a little breathing space to his chirche, making the fyerce seas cawme for a little tyme.” There, space denotes time.

Why are there suddenly so many dessert cafés in London?

Fifteen years ago, if you were eating at 239 Brompton Road in Kensington, just over from the Oratory, you may have been enjoying steak tartare, or grilled rabbit with mustard sauce, or tête de veau, a poached portion of calf’s head with turned potatoes. This was the former premises of Racine, a French restaurant by Henry Harris, which Michael Winner said was “quadruple historic.” Harris now runs Bouchon Racine in Farringdon, rated the best restaurant in the country this year, after closing the Knightsbridge site in 2015. At 239 Brompton Road nowadays, on the menu you’ll find a “cheesecake brownie served with vanilla ice cream, Oreos and warm Nutella and Lotus Biscoff sauce” (£10.95).

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Does Andy Burnham really want an ‘honest discussion’ about free movement?

Andy Burnham says in a couple of interviews that he wants an “honest conversation” about free movement, and then Downing Street indicates that perhaps he doesn’t. Many interpret this as poor “message discipline.” I don’t think so. The key to Mr. Burnham’s behavior is to remember two things. The first is that, even after 100 days in office, he still wants to be as different as possible from Sir Keir Starmer. That means he must be seen at all times to welcome open discussion, talking like a human being not a robot. The second is that he wants to keep open the possibility of calling a general election next year. The “breathing space” he says the country needs is really what his party needs.

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Americano Presents

‘This is the single greatest threat to America’ – Professor Robert Pape

What went up – and down – in 2025?

From our UK edition

Erasmus in England The government is to rejoin the Erasmus scheme, which allows students at British universities to spend time studying in other European countries, with reciprocal opportunities for EU students. How did Desiderius Erasmus’s own studies in England go? — In 1499 he spent two months at St Mary’s College, Oxford, where he attended John Colet’s Bible classes and also learned skills in horsemanship. His trip ended in financial disaster, however, when customs officials confiscated his gold and silver while he was leaving England. — From 1511 to 1515 Erasmus was a Professor of Divinity at Cambridge, where he studied and taught Greek. But he was far from happy with his accommodation at Queens’ College, which he complained was cold and draughty.

Is Trump becoming a lame-duck president?

American presidents face an inescapable dilemma as soon as they are reelected. Because they cannot run again, they find it increasingly difficult to dominate the national agenda. This constitutional limitation makes it increasingly difficult for presidents to “herd the cats” in their own party, filled as it is with prospective successors, and to defeat the opposing party, which sees the golden opportunity of winning the next midterm election. Those upcoming elections almost always go against the party-in-power since it is far easier to mobilize angry, negative voters than satisfied, complacent ones. Donald Trump is fighting tenaciously to postpone the impact of these indelible features of American politics, but he cannot escape them entirely.

What’s Trump got to do with the price of turkey?

During last week’s excruciating Oval Office make-nice between an insultingly buddy-buddy American President and a fraudulently obsequious New York City mayor-elect, the contest was over which pol was the more patronising. At one point Trump graciously granted his petitioner permission to call him a ‘fascist’ while clearly implying the guy’s OTT campaign rhetoric had been embarrassing. Donald Trump sat regally on his throne, patting Zohran Mamdani’s arm while commending ‘Attaboy!’ as if petting a golden retriever that had fetched a ball. For his part, Mamdani stood mutely by the Resolute desk with cartoonish humility, hands over crotch. This cowed performance of beta-male submission was meant to disguise who’d got a leg over whom.

Biden’s economic blame game

President Joe Biden presided over an event at the White House on Monday in which he announced the creation of a Council on Supply Chain Resilience and promised actions to “strengthen supply chains, lower costs for families and help Americans get the goods they need.” This news might bring a sigh of relief to many — finally, the Biden administration is taking inflation seriously! But the White House first led with a “Bidenomics” victory lap that felt more like a slap in the face than a swelling pocketbook. Transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg gave opening remarks in which he chastised the media for “saying that Christmas was going to be canceled” due to supply chain disruptions in the winter of 2021.

Bessent’s private message reveals a Milei gamble

The first lesson for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is that digital photography has totally changed politics, as wiser practitioners have long since realized. You might have got away with reading private communications in public 30 years ago, but you can no longer do so. The second lesson is that if you build an administration on the promise that you will always serve the American interest, certain foreign policy decisions become difficult. Bessent has been caught reading a message on his phone from Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins expressing her anger at the Trump administration’s deal to establish a $20 billion loan facility with Argentina, or "the Argentine" as Rollins prefers still to call it.

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Ed Davey pitches himself as the anti-Farage

From our UK edition

11 min listen

The Liberal Democrat party conference in Bournemouth has concluded with a speech from leader Sir Ed Davey. While the current crop of Liberal Democrats are the most successful third-party in 100 years, they have faced questions about why they aren't cutting through more while Reform is. It's something Davey is aware of and – hoping to exploit how divisive the leader of Reform is – he sought to pitch himself as the anti-Farage. Will it work? Plus, more bad news for the Chancellor. Labour had pledged to aim for the highest growth in the G7. New figures from the OECD did upgrade their global growth forecast, including for Britain, but projected that the UK would see the highest inflation across the G7. How bad is this for Rachel Reeves?

How many homes in England have air conditioning?

From our UK edition

Suit cases Volodymyr Zelensky again failed to wear a suit and tie to a meeting at the White House, in spite of being asked to do so – although Donald Trump did say he looked ‘fabulous’ in his black button-up suit. What did Allied leaders wear to the great conferences in the second world war? — Cairo 1943: Winston Churchill wore a white suit with bow tie; Franklin D. Roosevelt a lounge suit with striped tie; and the Chinese leader Chiang Kai-shek a military uniform. — Tehran 1943: Churchill and Stalin both wore military uniform; Roosevelt wore a pinstriped suit. — Yalta 1945: The photo session was held outside in cold weather. Churchill wore a thick civilian coat, FDR a cape over a lounge suit, and Stalin a military greatcoat.

Portrait of the week: Inflation up, hosepipes off and grants for electric cars

From our UK edition

Home Sir Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister, agreed with President Emmanuel Macron of France that Britain could return perhaps 50 asylum seekers a week to France and accept in their place the same number of applicants through a regulated system. To celebrate, 573 people arrived that day in England in small boats, bringing the total for the week ending 14 July to 1,387. Moygashel Bonfire Committee in Co. Tyrone defended the placing of an effigy of a small boat with 12 migrants on a bonfire to usher in 12 July. Britain had, it was revealed, offered asylum to thousands of Afghan soldiers and their families caught by the accidental publication of their application for asylum in 2022; their resettlement was kept secret by a government super-injunction.

Why is Britain’s economy so unhealthy?

From our UK edition

20 min listen

The Spectator’s economics editor Michael Simmons is joined by the outgoing boss of the Institute for Fiscal Studies Paul Johnson and the CEO of the Resolution Foundation Ruth Curtice to understand why Britain’s economy is in such a bad place. Given it feels like we are often in a doom loop of discussion about tax rises, does this point to a structural problem with the British economy? And why are the public’s expectations so out of line with the state’s capabilities? Michael, Paul and Ruth talk about whether it’s fair for Labour to claim they’ve been ending austerity, the extent to which the effects of the covid-19 pandemic are still being felt and if tax rises are inevitable.

The unforgiving history of student loans

Republicans in the House are considering a bill to make major changes in federal student loans for college, and President Trump is floating the idea of making colleges responsible for borrowers who fail to repay. For decades student loans and their repayment are never far the center of controversy, but it wasn’t always that way. I grew up in the era before massive student debt. Student loans were available in 1971 when I went off to college, but they didn’t dominate the terrain like a Tyrannosaurus rex. They were more like Barney, the joyful purple denizen of PBS, who had a ferocious appetite for public funds but had not yet evolved into the carnivore who preys on the livelihoods of college graduates.   But the student-loan monster had already been born.

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What’s RFK Jr. really up to?

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s program to Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) appears to be ahead of schedule. At the start of the month, the burger chain Steak ’n Shake announced that it would be frying its food in beef tallow rather than seed oils — and other major restaurant groups are following suit.This week, Kennedy, who hates seed oils and processed foods, rewarded Steak with an almighty PR stunt. He sat down with Fox News’s Sean Hannity to enjoy a burger (Hannity had two) at a branch in Florida. “People are raving about these French fries,” said JFK’s nephew. “They’re amazing,” Hannity agreed.It remains to be seen if the “RFK-ing” of fast food will achieve substantial results.

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Will better-than-expected inflation numbers calm the markets?

Has Donald Trump’s return to the White House triggered a second round of inflation? Not yet, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which revealed this morning that the consumer price index rose to 2.8 percent in February — 0.1 percent less than markets had expected. The rise is being described as "stable," as annualized core inflation (which excludes more volatile prices like food and energy) rose to 3.1 percent — also a smaller rise than expected. While inflation on the year is ticking up slightly, it remains in the ballpark of what has been expected.

VP Vance touts border security, energy and humor at CPAC

Vice President J.D. Vance took to the Conservative Political Action Committee stage moments ago for a sit-down interview with Mercedes Schlapp.   In his signature earnest-yet-easy style, Vance reiterated his boss’s main, shared goals one month into the new administration: secure the southern border and grow the economy by unleashing American energy. While casting plenty of blame on the Biden administration throughout his talk, Vance touted the Trump administration’s early accomplishments; border crossings are already down 90 percent, he said, and “we’re just getting started.” In response to a question about fixing the economy, Vance said the key is, “Drill, baby, drill.

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Why Rachel Reeves is safe, for now

From our UK edition

14 min listen

Foreign affairs are inescapable this week, with the readout from the meeting yesterday between Russian and American diplomats in Saudi Arabia. We understand that Trump told Putin that Ukraine will be part of the next round of peace talks. However, Trump’s shock-and-awe foreign policy continues to deliver significantly more shock than awe, especially after he seemingly blamed Ukraine for starting the war. What is he thinking? Could there be more to Trump's foreign policy than he is letting on?  Back in the UK, pressure is mounting on Rachel Reeves as more inaccuracies in her CV come to light, and inflation rises to 3 per cent. There have been murmurs that she could be replaced, but is there a viable candidate to replace her?

Reeves’s worst week so far?

From our UK edition

16 min listen

It's been a tricky week for Rachel Reeves: an onslaught of criticism for the levels of borrowing costs, GDP at 0.1 per cent, and stagflation still gripping the UK economy. Remarkably she has come out of it looking stronger – politically at least. But can she afford to celebrate? The Spectator's Kate Andrews and data editor Michael Simmons join the podcast to discuss the economy, and go through some of the most striking graphs from The Spectator'sdata hub this week. Produced by Natasha Feroze.

Rising inflation will make Rachel Reeves’s job harder

From our UK edition

12 min listen

New figures have shown that, for the year to November, inflation rose by 2.6%. While unsurprising, how much will this impact the Chancellor's plans going into the new year? Katy Balls speaks to Kate Andrews and Isabel Hardman about the impact on Labour, especially given their October budget. Also on the podcast: do the WASPI women deserve compensation? The team discuss Liz Kendall's announcement that Labour will not recompense women who faced pension changes; they also discuss the last PMQs of 2024. Produced by Patrick Gibbons and Oscar Edmondson.

Portrait of the week: Rising inflation, electric car targets and a tax on flatulent livestock

From our UK edition

Home Thousands of farmers protested in Westminster against inheritance tax on farms. Tesco, Amazon, Greggs and 76 other chains belonging to the British Retail Consortium said that costs introduced by October’s Budget ‘will make job losses inevitable and higher prices a certainty’. The annual rate of inflation rose to 2.3 per cent from 1.7 a month earlier. The British economy grew by 0.1 per cent in the third quarter, but shrank during September; in the second quarter it had grown by 0.5 per cent. Beth, the Queen’s Jack Russell, died. An additional 50,000 pensioners will live in relative poverty next year as a result of cuts to the winter fuel allowance, the government estimated.

Is Rachel Reeves running out of luck?

From our UK edition

11 min listen

An unexpected rise in inflation today takes the rate to higher than the Bank of England's target, and adds to Rachel Reeves's worries. James Heale talks to Katy Balls and The Spectator's data editor Michael Simmons about the latest figures, and they also discuss the shadow minister Alex Burghart's performance at Prime Minister's Questions. Produced by Cindy Yu.

Should Labour ditch the ‘doom and gloom’ narrative?

From our UK edition

11 min listen

We have some new inflation figures today. Inflation rose 2.2 per cent in the 12 months to August. This is pretty much in line with the Bank of England's target and should be good news for Labour, so why do they persist with this doom and gloom narrative?  Elsewhere, Labour's awkward week has got more awkward with the news that Sue Gray, Keir Starmer's chief of staff, is paid more than him. Surely they could have seen this news story coming?  Oscar Edmondson speaks to Kate Andrews and James Heale. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

The Squad will fight another day

The 2024 primary season is slowly coming to a close — and last night’s marquee election saw a rare big win for the left-wing Squad in the House of Representatives: Congresswoman Ilhan Omar vanquished an underfunded opponent in the Democratic primary to avoid the fates of Congressmen Cori Bush and Jamaal Bowman.Following the Hamas terrorist attacks of October 7, the pro-Israel community was galvanized to challenge some of the most openly anti-Israel members of Congress. It successfully trained its fire on Bush and Bowman, who both carried major liabilities unrelated to foreign policy.

Why has the inflation rate gone up again?

From our UK edition

11 min listen

We've got some news today on the inflation rate, which rose to 2.2 per cent in July, slightly up from the Bank of England’s target of 2 per cent, where the rate sat in May and June. It’s the first rate uptick this year – and though widely expected, it will be used to explain why the Bank’s continued hawkish stance, despite starting its rate-cutting process earlier this month. Is this a sign of economic conditions improving? Could it lead the way to interest rate cuts later this year?  Also today, the Treasury its under scrutiny after a Labour donor received a top civil service job. Do we need more transparency when it comes to political appointments?  Oscar Edmondson speaks to Kate Andrews and James Heale.  Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Portrait of the Week: Supermajorities, falling inflation and rammed cows

From our UK edition

Home The electorate mulled over the words of Grant Shapps, the Defence Secretary: ‘You don’t want to have somebody receive a supermajority.’ A question that lodged in the election campaign was put by Beth Rigby of Sky News to Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, asking whether he had meant it when he said his predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn, would make a great prime minister; he replied: ‘I was certain we would lose the 2019 election.’ A few days later, Sir Keir told a phone-in questioner that serving in a Corbyn administration ‘didn’t cross my mind because I didn’t think we would win’. He evaded questions on council tax, taxing pensions and VAT on schools. A dishevelled Boris Johnson made some short videos endorsing Conservative candidates.

Did Jeremy Hunt reduce inflation?

From our UK edition

12 min listen

Inflation has fallen to 3.4 per cent, it was announced this morning. Jeremy Hunt said it was a sign that the government’s economic plan is working. Is he right? Max Jeffery speaks to Katy Balls and Kate Andrews.

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Powell pays for past mistakes

Powell pays for past mistakes In the summer of 2020, Fed chair Jerome Powell could not have been clearer. “We’re not thinking about raising rates,” said Powell, before doubling down: “We’re not even thinking about thinking about raising rates.”   Things, as we now know, turned out a little differently. The months marched on, and with the Biden administration determined to spend, spend, spend, inflation went from “high class problem” to “transitory” to the biggest problem facing the US economy. Powell and his Fed colleagues went from not thinking about thinking about raising rates to, well, raising rates. From virtually zero around this time last year to 4.75 percent as of January.

Javier Milei’s radical reforms could start to heal Argentina’s economy

From our UK edition

Argentina has spent most of its 200-year history in deficit; no other country currently owes the International Monetary Fund a greater sum of money. The new finance minister, who entered government with President Javier Milei earlier this month, has been stark in making the point: ‘Out of the last 123 years, Argentina ran a fiscal deficit in 113... we have come to solve the addiction to fiscal deficits.’  Milei’s government is wasting little time carrying out what it calls ‘shock therapy’. The official value of the peso, Argentina’s currency, has been halved against the US dollar. Why might a government want to weaken its own currency, pushing up the price of imported goods for consumers?

Portrait of the Week: The Crooked House fire, Liz Truss’s honours and a Commonwealth Games flop

From our UK edition

Home The first of about 500 asylum seekers were taken to live on the Bibby Stockholm barge on the Isle of Portland, north of the prison and linked to the mainland by one road. The arrival of 339 migrants by small boat across the Channel at the weekend brought the year’s total to 15,071. The government declared it would increase enforcement action against lawyers who ‘coach illegal migrants to lie’ in making claims. Fines were to be tripled for employers and landlords who allow illegal migrants to work for them (up to £45,000 per illegal worker for a first breach) or rent their properties, the Home Secretary announced. The 18th-century Crooked House pub, near Dudley, was gutted by fire a fortnight after being sold, and the next day reduced to rubble by a mechanical digger.

Will Brits feel richer if inflation halves?

From our UK edition

The government’s objective to ‘halve inflation’ by the end of the year seems to be back on track – for now. Last week’s interest rate hike was delivered with an updated inflation forecast from the Bank of England, showing the rate slowing to 4.7 per cent by the end of the year, just below Rishi Sunak’s target. The better-than-expected fall in the headline rate last month has forecasters thinking things are finally moving in the right direction. As Ross Clark reports on Coffee House, Capital Economics is expecting another major fall in the rate next week – down to 6.9 per cent on the year – when July’s figures are released.

Biden catches a break on inflation

Things are looking up. Today began with some very good economic news in Washington: Labor Department data shows inflation falling to a two-year low. The consumer price index rose 3 percent in the twelve months to June. That is a steep fall from the 9.1 percent price rise in the twelve months to June 2022, and perhaps the clearest sign yet that the US is on course to tame inflation while avoiding a recession — the soft landing that Joe Biden, Jay Powell and every other policymaker in Washington has been praying for.   Core consumer prices increased by 0.2 percent in June, the smallest single-month increase since August 2021 and an indicator that the pressure on prices is easing.

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Home truths: the crushing reality of the mortgage crisis

From our UK edition

In December Jeremy Hunt hosted a mortgage summit, attended by lenders and the Financial Conduct Authority, to discuss rate woes. At the time, the numbers were at least moving in the right direction. During Liz Truss’s 49-day premiership, the FCA expected interest rates to rise to 5.5 per cent, an increase which was forecast to put 570,000 people into mortgage payment difficulty. Once Rishi Sunak and Hunt undid Truss’s mini-Budget, things looked calmer: a 4.5 per cent peak was expected, and 356,000 people were due to be in difficulty. Hunt was still struck by the figure. Horribly high, he thought. The Chancellor used the meeting to lay the foundation for regulatory changes that could be used in the future to help struggling mortgage-holders.

Portrait of the week: Boris locked out, mortgage misery and Titanic submarine search

From our UK edition

Home Boris Johnson, the former prime minister, was ritually buried by the House of Commons voting by 354 to seven to approve the Privileges Committee report that found he had lied to parliament about observing coronavirus regulations. He would have been suspended for 90 days had he not left parliament; as it was, his pass to enter the Houses of Parliament was withdrawn. Rishi Sunak, the Prime Minister, having remembered an important long-standing engagement, was among 225 MPs who were absent or abstained. David Warburton, an MP who sat as a Conservative until last year, said he was leaving the House. In the King’s birthday honours, Sir John Bell, Ian McEwan and Dame Anna Wintour were appointed Companion of Honour.

Brexit could fix inflation

From our UK edition

Has food price inflation finally peaked? Figures released by the British Retail Consortium (BRC) this morning reveal that food prices were up 15.4 per cent in the past 12 months, down from 15.7 per cent in the year to April. Last week’s figures from the Office of National Statistics also showed a small fall, from 19.2 per cent in March to 19.1 per cent to April. The BRC’s methodology is different from the ONS’s, not only in that it tends to produce slightly lower figures but that it also runs slightly ahead. The inflation story has subtly changed, from being one led by energy prices to being dominated by food prices Over the past few months, the inflation story has subtly changed, from being one led by energy prices to being dominated by food prices.

Portrait of the week: Rioting in Cardiff, rising migration and falling inflation

From our UK edition

Home A crash in which a 15- and a 16-year-old boy riding on an electric bike were killed led to rioting, the burning of cars and attacks on police in the Ely estate in Cardiff; social media had said the deaths followed a police chase, which the police denied. But video evidence seemed to show a chase. During the riot, one of the boys’ mothers posted a Facebook message: ‘Please I beg you all to stop and let my son be moved to hospital so I can see him.’ A woman hit on 10 May by a police motorcycle escorting the Duchess of Edinburgh died.

Doesn’t America deserve better than a Trump-Biden rematch?

Joe Biden is considering making his re-election announcement as early as Tuesday.  After months of teasing his inevitable run with awkward comments like telling Al Roker he will be pushing out Easter eggs, it would seem the moment is upon us.   So what does this mean for 2024?   Well, there’s still a long way to go. And as 2016 showed us, primaries make for plenty of surprises. Still, even with the unknowns, there’s a good chance that we end up with a 2020 re-rerun: former president Donald J. Trump versus President Joseph R. Biden. Because that worked out so well for everybody last time!  There are plenty of problems currently plaguing the country, from inflation to train derailments.

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Joe Biden’s Ireland trip is all about Joe Biden

Joe Biden’s Ireland trip is all about Joe Biden Half a century since he was sworn in as a US senator, the Biden brand is a well-established series of safe bets: a fondness for aviator sunglasses, a hankering for chocolate chip ice cream. Also high on the list: conspicuous displays of Irishness. The second Irish-American president is fond of quoting Heaney and Yeats. He may be the only teetotaler who enjoys St. Patrick’s Day, which he says is his favorite holiday.  And so much about Biden’s trip to Ireland this week is unsurprising. After landing in Belfast last night, the president this morning had a quick cuppa with British prime minister Rishi Sunak and gave a speech to mark twenty-five years since the Good Friday Agreement.

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